The Jets will have to make a big decision with another safety next offseason.
Marcus Maye, who’s poised to take over the role left behind by Jamal Adams, will be an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and could command a sizable new contract from the Jets, especially after Cardinals’ safety Budda Baker reset the market for the position.
Baker reportedly signed a four-year, $59 million contract this week. It will pay him $14.75 million annually – the most for any safety in the league. Maye, meanwhile, ranks 62nd with the final year of his rookie contract worth $1,638,510.
“Big ups to Budda,” Maye told reporters Tuesday after the deal was announced, “but we’re all in different situations. I know my talent.”
Baker and Maye were drafted three picks apart in 2017 (Baker was taken 36th and Maye was taken 39th) and play the same position, but that’s where the similarities end. They’re not the same player and have had very different careers thus far. That may change in 2020 if Gregg Williams adjusts Maye’s role in his defense, but for now, it’s hard to compare the two for the purposes of contract negotiations.
Baker has a leg up on Maye in four crucial aspects: durability, production, pass-rush ability and run-stopping. Baker’s played in eight more games than Maye and tallied 113 more total tackles. He also has seven quarterback hits, 3.5 sacks and leads safeties in quarterback pressures since 2017 with 33. Finally, Baker ranks third at his position with 68 run stops since 2017.
Maye missed a lot of time in 2018 with foot and shoulder injuries but is a much more traditional defensive back in that he’s overperformed Baker in coverage. The Jets safety’s Pro Football Focus coverage grade eclipsed 70.0 the past two seasons, including a 77.4 grade in 2018, which ranked 23rd out of 100 safeties. Baker’s coverage skills have improved every year since he entered the league, but he finished 2019 with a 64.8 grade.
As for what this all means with Maye’s future on the Jets, it’s hard to say. He’s a talented safety, but unless Williams unlocks a new version of Maye in 2020 it would be hard for Joe Douglas to justify paying him more than Baker – which would essentially be what Adams wanted if the Jets hadn’t traded him to Seattle.
If we compare Maye’s career to that of the top-five highest-paid safeties (Baker, Eddie Jackson, Tyrann Mathieu, Kevin Byard and Landon Collins) over the three-year span before they received their extensions, Maye ranks last in every category except forced fumbles and interceptions – where he ranks second-to-last. It’s an inexact science considering they all play in different defenses with different skillsets, but it paints the picture that Maye won’t – or shouldn’t – command a top-five contract, and that will play a big role in Joe Douglas’ decision with Maye.
Everything could change if Maye has a career year in 2020. The Jets already insinuated he could assume Adams’ role on defense as a hybrid safety/pass-rusher. If Maye proves he can play multiple defensive positions this season, his case for a top contract gets better. A lot is riding on the 2020 season when it comes to Maye’s future on the team.
There are other considerations at play for the Jets as well.
For one, they could look at extending Sam Darnold a year early if he takes a big leap in his third season (much like the Rams and Eagles did with their quarterbacks). The safety free- class could also include solid players like Justin Simmons, Anthony Harris and Jaquiski Tartt. The Jets may see them as better options in their secondary than Maye after this season. Of course, the ultimate kicker is the 2021 salary cap, which is entirely dependent on how the coronavirus pandemic affects this season’s revenue stream. If the cap drops too low, Douglas may want to invest money elsewhere and find a cheaper option to fill out his safety group with Ashtyn Davis leading the way.
Baker’s contract will have an effect on Maye’s negotiations, but not to the same extent it could have if this was Adams. Maye is good enough to get a second contract and would be only the third second-round pick by the Jets since 1984 to make it to his fifth season (David Harris and Kellen Clemens were the other two), but it’s hard to know where he stands on the Jets’ list of priorities until he sees the field this season.