Week 14 CFP Implications: Chalk or chaos?

With just one week remaining in the college football season, we can look at the likely Playoff participants based on the outcomes.

Who goes to the Rose Bowl?

The Pac 12 picture for the Rose Bowl is actually pretty simple. Oregon is going to the Rose Bowl with a win. If Utah wins and reaches the Playoff, then Oregon is also in the Rose Bowl. If Utah wins but doesn’t reach the Playoff, then Utah will play in its first Rose Bowl in program history.

For the Big Ten, it’s complicated. Assuming Ohio State wins this week, the Rose Bowl will have three potential teams to choose from. Since the Rose Bowl is a “contract bowl,” it officially gets to pick its participants. When relevant, the contract bowls this cycle have always gone with the committee’s rankings, though there haven’t really been any tough choices yet. Presumably, the Rose Bowl will stick with whichever school between Penn State and Wisconsin is ranked higher next week. If the Nittany Lions are higher this week, consider the spot all but locked up. If Wisconsin is higher, we’ll have to wait a week and see how close the Big Ten Championship Game is before having any idea.

One thing can throw a wrench in all of this, though. There is likely a slight chance that the Rose Bowl will jump at the opportunity to take Minnesota for the first time since the 1962 season. It will be a consideration, especially if Wisconsin gets blown out by Ohio State again. If the Rose Bowl is picking between Penn State and Minnesota, why not go with the school that won the head-to-head matchup and has waited more than half a century to visit Pasadena?

And, of course, if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship Game, the Badgers will play in the Rose Bowl. If Wisconsin sneaks its way into the Playoff (and assuming Ohio State gets in too), then the Rose Bowl decision will be back to Penn State or Minnesota.

Other New Years Six Bowls

Sugar Bowl

The Big 12 Sugar Bowl picture isn’t too complicated. If the Big 12 champion is in the Playoff, the runner-up goes to the Sugar Bowl. If that champion doesn’t make the Playoff, then the champion plays in the Sugar Bowl.

The SEC picture, on the other hand, could be all kinds of complicated. If LSU beats Georgia and the Bulldogs don’t back into the Playoff, then things are simple. Georgia would play in the Sugar Bowl. If LSU and Georgia both reach the Playoff, then the Sugar Bowl (which is also a contract bowl) will pick between Florida and Alabama. Alabama is the biggest draw, but Florida has the superior resume. Auburn could also be an option here, though that would be difficult because the Tigers lost to Florida. The committee’s rankings on Tuesday will give us some insight into who has the inside track.

Orange Bowl

It’s impossible at this point to give a real picture for the Orange Bowl. Virginia is all but guaranteed to be the ACC team. After that, though, anything can happen. The highest-ranked remaining Big Ten or SEC team will get the bid after the Rose and Sugar Bowls are filled. That could be any team out of Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, or maybe even Auburn. It all depends too much on how many Playoff teams each conference gets and who ends up in the Rose and Sugar Bowls.

Cotton Bowl

I still think the Group of 5 spot in the Cotton Bowl belongs to the AAC. Cincinnati will likely fall below Boise State this week, but I think the Bearcats jump back up if they get revenge on Memphis in the AAC Championship Game. If Memphis wins, the Tigers are obviously going to the Cotton Bowl. If Cincinnati wins, there’s a slight chance that Boise State gets it (assuming the Broncos win). Cincinnati would have a better resume, but wins over Air Force and San Diego State would look pretty good for the Broncos. It’s no longer as obvious in Cincinnati’s favor as I’ve been thinking for weeks, but Cincinnati still has the advantage.

The other team in the Cotton Bowl could be any of the Orange Bowl teams listed above. It will be the highest-ranked remaining team. Clemson, with a loss to Virginia, would be a lock for the Cotton Bowl if it misses out on the Playoff. Other than that, though, it could be Penn State, Florida, Wisconsin, Auburn, or Utah (with a loss to Oregon). It will all depend on the rankings and who gets taken for the other New Years’ Six bowls.