Let’s break down all five of this week’s Power 5 CCGs, and look at the Playoff impact of each.
ACC: Clemson vs Virginia
This game likely means nothing for Virginia, who should be going to the Orange Bowl no matter what. For Clemson, though, the Tigers need a win to feel safe about reaching the Playoff. There’s a chance Clemson gets in with a loss, but with no wins of any real quality whatsoever, the Tigers will feel very nervous if Utah wins the Pac 12 Championship Game or Georgia wins the SEC. If that happens, we would likely have four conference champions with one loss or fewer. Also, If both LSU and Clemson are 12-1, LSU easily stays ahead. Since the ACC Championship Game is Saturday night, Clemson will know if it’s locked in or potentially on the bubble before its game starts.
Big Ten: Ohio State vs Wisconsin
The Buckeyes are a virtual lock, though if both Wisconsin and Georgia win there could be a tiny bit of sweating. Still, the Buckeyes should feel pretty safely in the Playoff right now. The real wild card is Wisconsin. The Badgers could have a better resume than 12-1 Clemson, and for sure would be better than 11-2 Oregon. Can the Big Ten get two teams in if Clemson loses? Probably not, but the committee would have to put a team with zero ranked wins into the Playoff for the first time in CFP history. That’s not so easy to do. (If Georgia beats LSU, the point is moot, as both of those teams get in over both Clemson and Wisconsin.)
Big 12: Baylor vs Oklahoma
The winner is in good stead. It’s far from a Playoff lock–both Baylor and Oklahoma would have some concerns about jumping Utah, and would need LSU to beat Georgia. If we get the “chalk” case described above, plus an Oregon win, though, the Big 12 champion should be safely in the Playoff. Anything else, and there will be some nerves on Sunday.
Pac 12: Oregon vs Utah
I haven’t officially eliminated Oregon yet, but there’s really no reason for it. Oregon would need LSU to beat Georgia handily and for Clemson to lose handily. Then the Ducks have to hope that the committee will take an 11-2 Oregon team with two ranked wins over a 12-1 Clemson team with none. The Pac 12 is basically done with an Oregon win. If Utah wins, though, the Utes are in decent position. The win will have to be convincing to keep its position over the Big 12 champ, and it probably helps if Oklahoma is the team to win that game. Like everyone else, Utah is in trouble if Georgia beats LSU.
SEC: LSU vs Georgia
This is probably very simple. LSU is in with a win. Georgia is likely out with a loss, though it’s possible–if the game is very close–that the committee would consider an 11-2 Georgia team over a 12-1 Clemson team. If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs are in. LSU is likely in as well in that case, though things could get a little nervous there, especially if Baylor blows out Oklahoma. LSU would have the superior regardless, but leaving out a one-loss P5 champ (whose only loss is a tight game against a Top 10 team) would be a new precedent for the committee. It will probably be set, but there would be reason to be concerned.