Race for the Cotton Bowl
I’ve been saying for a while now that the AAC basically has things locked up, and I still stand by that. It would take a lot for the AAC champion to not go to the Cotton Bowl. I do, however, have to point out that Boise State is closing the gap.
The Broncos blew out a solid Utah State team. Boise State has a good excuse for its BYU loss, and has some pretty solid wins, like over Air Force and Wyoming.
The problem for Boise State is that every AAC contender has a much better collection of wins. However, Cincinnati has really struggled in recent weeks. If the Bearcats get blown out by Memphis next week, but then come back and barely beat the Tigers in the AAC Championship Game, that leaves a bit of room for Boise State to jump them.
If Cincinnati manages to beat Memphis, then Memphis doesn’t go to the AAC Championship Game. Instead, that game will likely feature Navy. The Midshipmen are currently 8-2, with wins over Air Force and SMU. If Navy beats Houston and Cincinnati beats Memphis, Navy will face Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game.
I would be very surprised if a 10-2 Navy team doesn’t jump Boise State. A win over Cincinnati would easily give Navy a far superior resume.
However, this is where Boise State has a chance. After beating Cincinnati, Navy would still have to face Army in their annual rivalry game. If Navy loses that game after winning the AAC, a 12-1 Boise State team would go to the Cotton Bowl instead of a 10-3 Navy team.
Those are Boise State’s path. Either have Cincinnati beat Memphis after an ugly split of games, or have Navy win the AAC but then lose to Army. That’s how the Broncos get to the Cotton Bowl. (If Cincinnati and Houston both win next week and then Memphis beats Cincinnati in a rematch, the Tigers would most likely jump back ahead of the Broncos.)