Need help:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Baylor | 0-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 40-100 | 3 | 6.3 (21) | 4.6 (13) |
Baylor fans have a bit of a complaint that the Bears aren’t respected enough for their two ranked wins. There’s something to that. Add to that the fact that Baylor has played four Top 40 teams and this seems like a decent resume. But those SOS numbers are just ugly. The very fact that Baylor can play five Top 40 teams and still not crack the Top 40 in any SOS metric tells us just how awful the cupcakes that Baylor has played are. On pure resume, this looks like a decent one-loss picture. But the Bears are being punished for an awful nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to blame the committee for it.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Wisconsin | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 4-0 | 15-35 | 3 | 6.1 (31) | 4.2 (6) |
The Badgers aren’t in a terrible position. The loss to Illinois looks more acceptable each week. They got a lot of help from Iowa, which both boosted the value of the Iowa win and gives the Badgers a shot. If Wisconsin wins out and gets to the Big Ten Championship Game, the Badgers could have four ranked wins. That will be decent, though the win over Ohio State would have to be convincing–otherwise the Badgers (at 11-2) probably wouldn’t be able to even jump the Buckeyes. (It would also help Wisconsin if Michigan beats Ohio State, both to hurt the Buckeyes’ resume and to add value to the win over Michigan.)
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Michigan | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 10-25 | 3 | 5.6 (66) | 3.9 (3) |
I have eliminated Michigan, but I’m concerned I may have been a drop too early on that. If the Wolverines win out, they would have four Top 40 wins, including one over Ohio State. The SOS numbers would be elite, as is the defense. If we get some real chaos, like two-loss teams winning both the Big 12 and the Pac 12, why wouldn’t Michigan be a contender? Because Penn State is in front of the Wolverines with a head-to-head win? This resume would be exceptionally strong. The blowout nature of the Wisconsin loss is the reason I eliminated Michigan, but we’ve seen a team with a similar loss reach the Playoff (2017 Georgia). It would take a lot of help, but Michigan’s resume could be very competitive–if it can beat Ohio State.