Teams that are Playoff locks if they win out
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| LSU | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-25 | 6 | 7.3 (3) | 5.3 (51) |
LSU’s resume is unimpeachable. Great SOS, four Top 40 wins, and a whopping six wins over teams with winning records. The defensive numbers could use a bit of improvement, especially after getting gashed by Ole Miss, but LSU’s defense has always got the stops it needed when necessary. LSU is likely in with one loss, let alone undefeated.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Ohio State | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 30-50 | 5 | 7.1 (4) | 3.3 (1) |
The Buckeyes are almost unmatched in the combined metrics. The SOS slipped a little after playing Rutgers, but season-ending games against Penn State and Michigan will more than make up for that. This resume is clearly second to LSU’s right now, but there’s no one else close to it. The Tigers and Buckeyes are very clearly a cut above the rest of the country right now.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Clemson | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 60-90 | 4 | 7.1 (5) | 3.6 (2) |
It’s easy to see why the selection committee wasn’t such a fan of Clemson in its first rankings. The only Top 40 wins are Texas A&M and Wake Forest, and with Wake Forest’s recent play that won’t last long. (Louisville is close to cracking the Top 40, though.) This resume has an ugly five cupcakes and bad SOS numbers, which won’t get significantly better over the next few weeks. Of course, the metrics show why Clemson is a top team and why the Tigers are likely to go 13-0.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Georgia | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 20-40 | 4 | 6.42 (27) | 4.1 (4) |
This resume was good last week, but now it’s excellent. The Bulldogs are still the only team in this section of the Bubble Watch with a loss to a team in that 40-80 range. That is easily outweighed by a resume that is really only matched by LSU’s and Ohio State’s. It makes perfect sense that the committee ranked Georgia at No. 4, and the Bulldogs are a Playoff lock if they can win out.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Penn State | 0-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 15-30 | 4* | 5.2 (58) | 4.5 (12) |
The Nittany Lions have a very impressive resume, and they get Ohio State next. The offense could be better, but the defense is elite. With Indiana and Pitt, the Nittany Lions have four Top 40 wins. Compare this resume to every one-loss team other than Georgia. The Nittany Lions are clearly very underrated by the committee right now. Of course, that point is somewhat moot. Beat Ohio State and the Nittany Lions will shoot up the rankings; lose and it would take an insane amount of chaos to back Penn State into the Playoff.
(*Note that I am not counting Buffalo, who reached 6-5 with a win over Toledo on Wednesday, as a “team with a winning record” since the Bulls were 5-5 when the week started.)
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Minnesota | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 40-75 | 3 | 6.3 (18) | 4.7 (17) |
The stats on this resume will surprise some, especially with how close Minnesota’s early-season games were. But this is a very solid team on both sides of the ball. Only one win against Top 40 teams means there is no meat here, but if the Gophers win out that would add wins over Wisconsin and either Ohio State or Penn State. The SOS numbers are rapidly rising, and will continue to do so. This isn’t a Playoff resume yet, but it will be if Minnesota can go 12-1.