On the Bubble:
These teams will be shown in where they sit on the bubble. That fact is determined by the strength of the resume if the team in question wins out, not by where it is currently.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oklahoma | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 30-90 | 2 | 9.0 (1) | 5.1 (36) |
It’s easy to understand why the committee doesn’t like Oklahoma. There are only two meaningful wins, and an SOS that’s weak overall. (Like in my comment on Baylor, Oklahoma’s SOS range would be around 60-90 if Massey was excluded.) Two wins against Baylor would change all of that, though. Three Top 25 wins (four if Oklahoma State can stay ranked) plus a few more solid ones–along with a decent loss–would be at the top of the bubble.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Auburn | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 1-15 | 3 | 5.7 (57) | 4.6 (13) |
Why is Auburn so high on this list? How are the Tigers ahead of Oregon, Utah, and Alabama? Just look at this resume. A Top 10 win over Oregon, plus two more potential Top 10 wins? The only losses are to No. 1 LSU and nearly Top 10 Florida. That SOS number should be close to a unanimous No. 1 by season’s end, even with the Samford game in Week 13. The offense could use a little work, but other than that this is one of the strongest resumes we’ve seen in a long time. Only three teams in the Playoff era have ended with three Top 10 year-end wins; Auburn will almost certainly be the fourth if it wins out. Honestly, Auburn is already underrated when looking at the SOS numbers. If wins over Georgia and Alabama are added to this resume, Auburn will be looking at the strongest two-loss resume we’ve ever seen in the CFP era.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oregon | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 10-50 | 4 | 6.3 (23) | 4.5 (11) |
The Pac 12 has Top 40 teams, and Oregon has played no real cupcakes. The metrics are decent, and the SOS is decent. Nothing over the next three weeks will move the needle much, but Oregon could very well end the season with no cupcakes. Nevada will move out of the 80+ range with two more wins (one might be enough), and the other cupcake is FCS No. 5 Montana. My rule is that all FCS teams count as 80+ no matter what, but Montana is likely right around the edge of that No. 80 range when compared to FBS teams.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 25-80 | 2 | 7.6 (2) | 4.6 (20) |
This resume is ugly. The one decent win is over Texas A&M. The only other team with a winning record that Alabama has beaten is Southern Miss. Massey also loves the Crimson Tide’s schedule, and the SOS range excluding Massey would be about 50-80. Alabama’s metrics aren’t anywhere near the usual dominant numbers. The Crimson Tide are getting some major benefit of the doubt for blowing out bad teams, and likely for the Alabama brand and recent success. If we’re judging this resume on resume alone, there’s not much here.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Utah | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 35-90 | 4 | 6.3 (22) | 4.4 (9) |
Utah has played two decent teams–USC and Washington–and the Utes split those games. Utah probably also should have lost to Washington. This is one of the weakest overall SOS profiles in the Pac 12, and it won’t get any better over the next three weeks. Utah is winning games convincingly, but I’m looking at this resume and have zero idea why or how the Utes are ahead of teams like Penn State or Minnesota. Why is this resume even ahead of Oklahoma’s?