Teams that are Playoff locks if they win out
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| LSU | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-20 | 6 | 7.1 (4) | 4.9 (29) |
LSU’s resume is unimpeachable. Great SOS, four Top 25 wins, and a whopping six wins over teams with winning records. The defensive numbers could use a bit of improvement, but LSU’s defense has always got the stops it needed when necessary. LSU is in with one loss, let alone undefeated.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Ohio State | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 15-35 | 5 | 7.0 (5) | 3.3 (1) |
The Buckeyes are almost unmatched in the combined metrics. Add three ranked wins to that, plus no losses and a solid SOS, and it’s easy to see why this is a top resume.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Clemson | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 65-100 | 2 | 7.1 (3) | 3.8 (2) |
It’s easy to see why the selection committee wasn’t such a fan of Clemson last week. The only notable win is over Texas A&M. Five cupcakes and bad SOS numbers, which won’t get significantly better over the next few weeks. Of course, the metrics show why Clemson is a top team and why the Tigers are likely to go 13-0.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Georgia | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 40-65 | 4 | 6.4 (15) | 4.2 (6) |
The Bulldogs are the only team in this entire Bubble Watch with a loss to a team in that 40-80 range. There are good wins here, but two isn’t that many by year’s end. Luckily for the Bulldogs, they get Auburn and Texas A&M in the coming week to boost these numbers. Win those two, and a showdown against LSU comes up. Winning out will make this an elite resume.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Minnesota | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 55-95 | 3 | 6.4 (20) | 4.6 (16) |
The stats on this resume will surprise some, especially with how close Minnesota’s early-season games were. But this is a very solid team on both sides of the ball. Only one game against Top 40 teams means there is no meat here, but upcoming games against Iowa and Wisconsin will change that. They will also boost those SOS numbers, which can use some help.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Penn State | 0-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 15-25 | 4 | 5.9 (46) | 4.3 (8) |
The Nittany Lions have a very impressive resume, and the next two games are against 7-2 Indiana and 9-0 Ohio State. The offense could be better, but the defense is elite. Honestly, I understand that Penn State is down at No. 9 because the committee wanted Minnesota ahead of the Nittany Lions, but this resume is better than Minnesota’s–and better than several other teams ranked higher, as well. Honestly, compare this resume to Georgia’s above. Why, exactly, is Penn State behind Georgia right now? I don’t know, either.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Baylor | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 50-120 | 3 | 6.4 (18) | 4.4 (10) |
Baylor fans have a bit of a complaint that the Bears aren’t respected enough for their two ranked wins. There’s something to that. Add to that the fact that Baylor has played four Top 40 teams and this seems like a decent resume. But those SOS numbers are just ugly. (The 50 end of it entirely comes from the fact that Massey seems to love the Big 12 in general when it comes to SOS. Baylor still has the worst SOS of any Big 12 team, and if Massey was excluded that range would be 80-120.) The very fact that Baylor can play four Top 40 teams and still have an SOS towards the bottom of the country tells us just how awful the cupcakes that Baylor has played are. The Bears are being punished for an awful nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to blame the committee for it.