The Washington Nationals (36-72) face the Philadelphia Phillies (58-48) Saturday in the 3rd game of a 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Phillies lead 8-2
Washington has lost 3 games in a row and 7 of 10 as its nightmare season continues. RHP Josiah Gray was pounded for 4 homers as the Phillies rolled 7-2 Friday. Oddly enough, the Nats have more wins on the road this season at 19-32 as opposed to 17-40 at home. The key for them is getting to 5 runs as they’re 25-6 when they do.
The Phils got 8 strong innings from RHP Kyle Gibson Friday and have a rested bullpen. They are 8-2 over the last 10 games and have beaten up on the Nats at the same rate this year. Philadelphia is just 15-19 against the rest of the division. 1B Rhys Hoskins is 13-for-36 (.361) with 3 homers and 6 RBIs the last 10 games.
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Nationals at Phillies projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Corbin (4-15, 6.57 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.77 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 109 2/3 IP.
- Last 5 starts: 10.29 ERA and has allowed at least 4 ER in each outing.
- Road: 1-8, 8.43 ERA, 2.00 WHIP and 7.9 K/9.
Suarez (7-5, 3.60 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 95 IP.
- Last 3 starts: 0.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.
- Struggles at home; 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.56 WHIP vs. 6-1, 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on road.
Nationals at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Nationals +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Phillies -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+100) | Phillies -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 6, Phillies 5
Money line
Corbin is having one of the worst seasons of any starter in recent memory. One might think that he’s 33 and washed up, but his velocity is the same it has been the last 5 years. His walk rate is high but the same as it was in 2019 with a 3.25 ERA. However, he has been severely unlucky with a .381 BABIP, which is the highest among starters with at least25 innings pitched.
Now that the trade deadline has passed, and the team isn’t trying to give him away, maybe he can settle in. Suarez isn’t good at home. This is a game the Phils could easily overlook. Give me the NATIONALS (+205) for a QUARTER UNIT.
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Run line/Against the spread
The Nats are 2-8 against the Phillies this season, but they have covered the run line in 5 of the 10 meetings and lost two more by exactly 2 runs. It has been competitive, and while OF Juan Soto and 1B Josh Bell are gone the Nats have still scored 16 runs in 4 games since the deadline. That’s 1 short of the aforementioned magic number of 5 runs. Take the NATIONALS +1.5 (+100).
Over/Under
The Over is probably the best and safest bet on this game with a starter whose ERA is 6.57 and a starter that tanks at home. The first 2 games of this series were a push at 9 runs, and the number has fallen to 8.5. Take the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a FULL UNIT.
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