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The Washington Nationals (25-29) and Atlanta Braves (31-22) wrap up a 4-game set Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Nationals lead 2-1
The Nationals won 7-2 as +134 underdogs in the 3rd game of the series Wednesday as the Over (8.5) hit. RF Lane Thomas hit a 3-run shot in the 5th inning for Washington, which has won 4 of its last 6 games.
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach allowed 3 runs on 5 hits with 5 K’s in 5 IP in his MLB debut for the Braves, who failed to cash as -146 favorites. Atlanta has gone 1-2 since losing RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (ACL) to a season-ending injury Sunday.
Nationals at Braves projected starters
RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Reynaldo López
Williams (4-0, 2.29 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 51 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-1 home victory over Seattle Mariners Saturday
- 2024 road stats: 2-0, 2.73 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.35 WHIP in 6 starts
- Career vs. Braves: 2-1, 3.48 ERA (44 IP, 17 ER), 1.32 WHIP in 6 starts and 4 relief appearances, including 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 2 starts last season
López (2-2, 1.75 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 51 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 4-1 setback at Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 1-0, 1.21 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.05 WHIP in 5 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (4 IP, 6 ER), 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 9-5 road loss with Chicago White Sox June 4, 2019
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Nationals at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:14 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-120) | Braves -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Nationals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
The NATIONALS (+165) are being offered at a decent price against the Braves, who have struggled to score runs without Acuña. Williams has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts this season and should keep this game close enough for Washington to pull off the upset.
According to Statmuse, the Braves are 105-94 without Acuña, not exactly a powerhouse that should be laying -200 at home with just a slight pitching advantage.
BET NATIONALS (+165).
Run line/Against the spread
Washington +1.5 (-120) should hit, but with the uncertainty of how the Braves will look moving forward, I prefer the plus odds on the ML.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Braves have scored a total of just 8 runs over their last 3 games without Acuña, and López has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each start this season. Considering how impressive both starters have been this year, I don’t expect either team to score 5-plus runs in this series finale.
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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