Tag: Nationals Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (25-38) and Atlanta Braves (40-24) wrap up a 3-game series on Sunday at Truist Park. First pitch is slated for 1:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 4-1

The Nationals lost 6-4 Saturday for their 6th straight defeat and 9th in their last 11 games. They’ve allowing opponents to score 6.6 runs per game during the current losing streak.

Atlanta won their 7th straight game Saturday behind HRs from Ronald Acuna Jr and Marcel Ozuna. The Braves have won 8 of their last 9 games. They are scoring nearly 7 runs per game in their current win streak.

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Nationals at Braves projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Williams (2-4, 4.15 ERA) will make his 13th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 60 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 6 K in a 11-3 home loss vs Philadelphia Phillies Sunday
  • Last start vs Braves: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 5-0 road loss on April 27, 2021

Elder (4-0, 2.26 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8 K/9 in 71 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 6-4 home victory vs New York Mets Tuesday
  • Last start vs Nationals: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 8-0 road victory on Sept. 26, 2022

Nationals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Braves -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +2.5 (-135) | Braves -2.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Nationals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Nationals 2

Moneyline

The Braves are a huge favorite and with good reason. They will likely win this game but the moneyline is not the play. You need to put down nearly 3 units to win 1, that’s not a smart bet. Look to the run line.

AVOID.

Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -2.5 (+115)

These are 2 teams going in opposite directions. The Braves will complete their 2nd straight sweep to finish the homestand 6-0. Williams has not won a game on the road since April 8th and owns a 4.55 road ERA.

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Over/Under

I would lean to the UNDER 9.5 (-105) because Elder has owned the Nationals. He threw 6-hit shutout against them last year and is  2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in 3 starts, allowing only 4 ER in 20 1/3 IP with 3 BB and 16 K’s.

Washington is averaging just 3 runs per game over their 6-game losing streak and are in the bottom 10 in MLB in runs scored per game.

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (25-36) and the Atlanta Braves (38-24) kick off a 3-game series Friday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-1

The Nationals got an unexpected day off Thursday due to poor air quality in the nation’s capital. That’s probably a good thing, as the Arizona Diamondbacks were putting it on the Nats, outscoring them 16-7 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Washington has dropped 4 in a row overall, and 7 of the past 9 contests.

The Braves posted a 3-game sweep of the division rival New York Mets to start the week, and Atlanta won 2 of 3 games against the aforementioned Diamondbacks prior to that. Atlanta currently resides in 1st place in the NL East, 3 1/2 games clear of the 2nd place Miami Marlins.

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Nationals at Braves projected starters

RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP AJ Smith-Shawver

Gray (4-5, 3.09 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 67 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-7 home win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Friday
  • 2023 Road splits: 2-3, 2.43 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 11 ER – 3 HR) with a .250 OBA in 7 starts

Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 1st major league start, and 2nd overall appearance.

  • Last appearance (debut): 2 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K in an 8-5 road win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday
  • 2023 Minor League stats (A+, AA, AAA): 2-1, 1.09 ERA (33 IP, 4 ER – 1 HR) with 12 BB and 45 K in 7 starts

Nationals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:43 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-120) | Braves -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

The NATIONALS (+165) are worth a look as moderate underdogs in this road opener.

Washington is rested after getting a day off Thursday, and now it will be facing a rookie making his first major league start. You never know what you’re going to get in that kind of situation, even with a hotshot 20-year-old prospect phenom. While some could argue the Nats aren’t that much better than a minor-league team, this is still a huge step up in competition for Smith-Shawver.

Run line/Against the spread

The NATIONALS +1.5 (-120) are very affordable if you’d like a little insurance, and just can’t bring yourself to play Washington straight up.

While Washington is 1-5 in the past 6 trips to Atlanta, it is a respectable 4-4 on the run line as an underdog in the past 8 tries against the Braves, with 3 outright victories during the span.

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Over/Under

UNDER 10 (-115) is worth a look in this series opener.

While we do have the rookie on the hill, he had tremendous numbers in the minors. Can he bring it in his first major league start after impressing with a couple of scoreless innings of relief in his debut? Gray has also posted some solid numbers on the road.

The Under is 7-2 in the previous 9 meetings in this series, while 7-3 in the past 10 games for the Nats following an off day. The Braves have hit the Under at a 5-2-1 clip in the past 8 games overall, too.

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (30-57) and Atlanta Braves (51-35) finish their 3-game series Sunday at Truist Park with 1st pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves lead 6-2 and have outscored the Nationals 62-34 in the 8 games.

The Braves look to sweep the Nationals for the 2nd time this season. While Braves pitcher Kyle Wright went 7 innings in Saturday’s 4-3 win, the Nationals could not capitalize on their 12 hits. They left 9 men on base and were 1-8 with RISP.

Nationals at Braves projected starters

RHP Paolo Espino vs. RHP Ian Anderson

Espino (0-2, 3.33 ERA) makes his 6th start this season after 20 relief appearances. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 48 2/3 IP.

  • Has a 2.03 ERA as a reliever, 4.91 as starter.
  • Gave up 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts.
  • Getting an average 3.33 in run support as a starting pitcher.

Anderson (7-5, 5.09 ERA) will make his 17th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 81 1/3 IP.

  • Despite giving up only 1 run against St. Louis last week, Anderson has a 6.15 ERA in his last 7 starts.
  • Started June 13 game against Washington and had no-decision with 4 IP, 6 H 4 ER, 4 BB and 3 K.
  • Allows .213 batting average against lefties.

Nationals at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:54 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Nationals +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Braves -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Nationals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Nationals 3

Money line

LEAN BRAVES (-220)

It’s pricey, but the Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. right-handed starters and the Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Also,  the Nationals have lost 5 straight games when they lose the first 2 games of a series.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN BRAVES (-1.5)

Atlanta covers 57% of the time against division opponents while Washington is last in the same category with 33%.

Only the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, and Los Angeles Dodgers have played fewer 1-run games this season than the Nationals’ 19, so if you wanted to bet on Washington there is more value on the money line.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (-130)

The line is high but on paper the numbers suggest a high scoring game.

Anderson has been trending down since his first start in 2020. His ERA, WHIP, FIP, and home runs allowed have been increasing year over year, while his strikeouts per 9 innings have fallen.

But the Braves have won in 10 of his 16 games. The reason comes from their bats. Atlanta is putting up 6.22 runs on offense when Anderson starts.

For the Nationals, of all the teams Espino faced as a reliever and a starter this year, the Braves have the highest ERA at 9.00 and a 2.00 WHIP, and the Over hit in 5 of Washington’s last 6 game 3s of a series.

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (1-3) take on the Atlanta Braves (2-2) Monday at Truist Park in Atlanta. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first meeting of 2022 between these NL East rivals. The World Champion Braves won 14 of 19 games between the two clubs in 2021.

The Nationals dropped the first three games of the season against the New York Mets before salvaging the finale of the four-game set 4-2 Sunday.

The Braves split a four-game home set against the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves won the second and third games of the series, bookended by a pair of 6-3 setbacks Thursday and Sunday.

Nationals at Braves: Projected starters

RHP Josh Rogers vs. RHP Huascar Ynoa

Rogers (2-2, 3.28 ERA) is expected to make his first start of the season, as RHP Anibal Sanchez (neck) is dealing with some stiffness in his neck and is doubtful to play.

  • Went 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA with 19 IP across three road starts with a .278 opponent’s batting average last season.
  • This will be his first-ever appearance against the Braves.

Ynoa (4-6, 4.05 ERA in 2021) makes his first start of the season. He posted a career-best 1.11 WHIP with 100 strikeouts across 91 IP through 17 starts and one relief appearance last season.

  • Went 3-3 with a 2.88 ERA with a .182 opponent’s batting average across 50 IP in nine starts at home in 2021.
  • Was 1-0 with a 1.06 ERA in three starts against the Nationals last year.

Nationals at Braves odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Nationals +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Braves -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Nationals at Braves prediction and picks

Prediction

Braves 7, Nationals 3

Money line

The BRAVES (-125) have a top-flight pitcher going against a replacement for the Nationals. Atlanta owned this series last season, and they’ll jump all over Washington in this series opener.

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Run line/Against the spread

The BRAVES -1.5 (+155) are worth a look, although be careful. Each of their first two victories this season was a 1-run game. However, all three of the losses for the Nationals have been by 4 or more runs.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (-105) is worth a small-unit play, mainly because of the uncertainty on the mound for the Nats.

The Under is 3-1 in four games so far for the Nats, while the Over is 2-1-1 in four outings for the Braves.

The Over was 4-1 in the final five meetings between these two clubs last season, with the Over going 11-5-1 in the previous 17 meetings in Atlanta between them.

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (58-81) and Atlanta Braves (73-65) play the finale of a three-game set Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Nationals RHP Erick Fedde (6-9, 5.27 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 111 IP.

  • Is 2-2 with a 5.77 ERA over 34 1/3 IP across seven starts since the beginning of August.
  • Grades in the 33rd percentile or worse in hard-hit%, average exit velocity, K%, whiff% and chase rate.

Braves RHP Huascar Ynoa (4-5, 3.19 ERA) makes his 13th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 67 2/3 IP.

  • Is 0-3 with a 3.52 ERA through 23 IP since returning from the injured list Aug. 17.
  • Has benefitted from a .244 BABIP and an 80.7% left on base rate.

Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Braves 6, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The money line price is far too high to warrant a wager despite the Braves clearly being the better of the two teams. Ynoa’s underlying numbers don’t back up his surface stats and it’s just too risky to wager more than two times your return in this spot.

Best to just PASS on the money line altogether, unless it drops to the -220 range I wouldn’t even use it in parlays.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The value is a little better for Atlanta on the run line.

Offensively, Atlanta is the better of the two teams against right-handed pitching by metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and OPS, although Washington has hit the ball very well in the second half of the season in general.

The differentiator here comes down to the bullpens. Atlanta is middle of the pack in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%, and top 10 in ERA and FIP over the second half of the season, while Washington is last in K-BB%, ERA, FIP and xFIP, and second to last in SIERA.

I have lingering concerns about Ynoa here, but there is a partial-unit value play to be made on the BRAVES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under (O/U)

I’d prefer if this number was a flat 9 just to add a layer of insurance but I have a slight “lean” to the Over anyway.

Fedde has been consistently underwhelming and Ynoa has scraped by with a very high LOB% and a very low BABIP. Factor in the Nats hitting the ball well and also having an atrocious bullpen, plus the wind blowing direct out of the ballpark and we’ve got a recipe for this one to reach the OVER 9.5 (+100).

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (21-29) fell to the Atlanta Braves (25-26) on Monday and will look to bounce back Tuesday at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Stephen Strasburg is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 in 20 1/3 IP over four starts.

Strasburg has made two starts since returning from a shoulder strain, allowing 3 ER in 10 1/3 IP, with a 9/5 K/BB rate.

LHP Max Fried is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 35 IP over seven starts.

Fried got off to a rough start this season but has given up exactly 1 ER in each of his last four starts. He has faced the Nationals twice already with mixed results that add up to 6 ER in 7 IP with 9 strikeouts.

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Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:02 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-185) | home -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Braves 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The strikeouts and velocity for Strasburg are nowhere near his pre-2020 levels. Strasburg is also allowing a lot of hard contact for the second straight year, with a hard-hit rate of 47.3%.

Fried’s skills have slipped as well, and his recent success has been mainly due to an overcorrection on BABIP, from .513 in April to .230 in May.

But, Fried has the better offense supporting him and is facing a team that is 8-14 on the road this year.

Go with the BRAVES (-135) in this one.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves have won 14 games at home this season, with six of those coming by just a single run.

Odds are, this will be another pretty close game, and it is probably best to simply PASS on the total and look elsewhere for value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Atlanta has a 17-9-2 O/U record at home this season and this is a matchup of two big-name pitchers who aren’t at their best right now.

Furthermore, the Nationals rank eighth in wRC+ vs lefties, while the Braves are ninth in the category against right-handed pitching.

Neither team is likely to have a huge day, but both should do their part in pushing this total OVER 8.5 (-105).

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