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The Atlanta Braves (31-21) and Washington Nationals (24-29) play the 3rd game of 4-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Braves, who just lost OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (ACL) for the season Sunday, have won 4 of their last 6 games. They are a strong 17-9 at home this season and beat the Nationals 2-0 Tuesday, closing at -237 on the moneyline (ML). They are 1-1 in the series despite having closed as sizable favorites in both games. Atlanta is just 5-7 over its last 12.
The Nationals are coming off a loss but did open the series with an 8-4 victory Monday, closing at +187 on the ML. Washington has lost 2 of its last 3 yet is 3-2 over its last 5. It is 14-16 on the road this season. The Nationals have been among the best against-the-spread (ATS) teams in MLB at 32-21 ATS.
Nationals at Braves projected starters
LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
Gore (3-4, 3.04 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 53 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home victory over Seattle Mariners Friday
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 2.42 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 1 HR, 7 BB, 30 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Braves: 1-1, 4.60 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 3 starts, including 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts last season
Schwellenbach is set to make his MLB debut.
- Skipped over Triple-A; was promoted to Double-A 2 weeks ago
- 2024 stats with Double-A Mississippi: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (13 IP), 0.46 WHIP in 2 starts
- Was Atlanta’s 2nd-round pick in 2021
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Nationals at Braves odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Nationals +134 (bet $100 to win $134) | Braves -158 (bet $158 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Nationals +1.5 (-152) | Braves -1.5 (+126)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Nationals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Nationals 3
Moneyline
BET BRAVES (-158).
The Nationals have not won consistently with Gore on the mound, although he has performed well recently. Washington is 2-5 straight up over his last 7 starts and 0-3 in his last 3 on the road. It has also played 3 straight series (Atlanta is the 4th) in which it has faced a team over .500, and it went 3-6 in those recent sets.
The Braves may have come up short in 2 of their last 4, but they have still won 5 of their last 8 games and been a consistent side at home. Considering those trends and despite the juice on the ML, back BRAVES (-158).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Nationals on the run line are at least worth a look here, but considering their struggles with Gore on the mound, ultimately passing a run-line play is the smart option. The Braves are too risky as run-line favorites with their recent shortcomings in mind.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
The Braves have gone Under in 5 of their last 8 games and scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 5. They are 18-31-2 O/U on the season. The Nats have also trended towards the Under and are 2-4 O/U in their last 6 games. Washington is 23-28-2 O/U on the season.
With both teams trending towards lower-scoring games, take UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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