The Washington Nationals (25-36) and the Atlanta Braves (38-24) kick off a 3-game series Friday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1
The Nationals got an unexpected day off Thursday due to poor air quality in the nation’s capital. That’s probably a good thing, as the Arizona Diamondbacks were putting it on the Nats, outscoring them 16-7 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Washington has dropped 4 in a row overall, and 7 of the past 9 contests.
The Braves posted a 3-game sweep of the division rival New York Mets to start the week, and Atlanta won 2 of 3 games against the aforementioned Diamondbacks prior to that. Atlanta currently resides in 1st place in the NL East, 3 1/2 games clear of the 2nd place Miami Marlins.
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Nationals at Braves projected starters
RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
Gray (4-5, 3.09 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 67 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-7 home win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Friday
- 2023 Road splits: 2-3, 2.43 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 11 ER – 3 HR) with a .250 OBA in 7 starts
Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 1st major league start, and 2nd overall appearance.
- Last appearance (debut): 2 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K in an 8-5 road win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday
- 2023 Minor League stats (A+, AA, AAA): 2-1, 1.09 ERA (33 IP, 4 ER – 1 HR) with 12 BB and 45 K in 7 starts
Nationals at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-120) | Braves -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Nationals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
The NATIONALS (+165) are worth a look as moderate underdogs in this road opener.
Washington is rested after getting a day off Thursday, and now it will be facing a rookie making his first major league start. You never know what you’re going to get in that kind of situation, even with a hotshot 20-year-old prospect phenom. While some could argue the Nats aren’t that much better than a minor-league team, this is still a huge step up in competition for Smith-Shawver.
Run line/Against the spread
The NATIONALS +1.5 (-120) are very affordable if you’d like a little insurance, and just can’t bring yourself to play Washington straight up.
While Washington is 1-5 in the past 6 trips to Atlanta, it is a respectable 4-4 on the run line as an underdog in the past 8 tries against the Braves, with 3 outright victories during the span.
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Over/Under
UNDER 10 (-115) is worth a look in this series opener.
While we do have the rookie on the hill, he had tremendous numbers in the minors. Can he bring it in his first major league start after impressing with a couple of scoreless innings of relief in his debut? Gray has also posted some solid numbers on the road.
The Under is 7-2 in the previous 9 meetings in this series, while 7-3 in the past 10 games for the Nats following an off day. The Braves have hit the Under at a 5-2-1 clip in the past 8 games overall, too.
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