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The UMass Minutemen (1-6) take a trip to Happy Valley to face the No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) Saturday. Kickoff from Beaver Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UMass vs. Penn State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Penn State, who was off last week, has won all of its 5 games by a minimum of 23 points and have only allowed 48 total points on the year. QB Drew Allar has shined to start his collegiate career, completing 64.5% (102 of 158) of his passes for 1,092 yards and 9 TDs with 0 INTs.
UMass suffered its 6th-consecutive loss on Saturday, 41-24 vs. the Toledo Rockets, but covering as a 19.5-point underdog. RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams ran for 157 yards and 1 TD on 20 carries. Lynch-Adams has now rushed for 661 yards and 6 TDs this season while averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Penn State is No. 5 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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UMass at Penn State odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UMass +8000 (bet $100 to win $8000) | Penn State -10000 (bet $10000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UMass +41.5 (-110) | Penn State -41.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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UMass at Penn State picks and predictions
Prediction
Penn State 52, UMass 12
Moneyline
PASS.
The Nittany Lions will pick up the win here, but a -10000 favorite is not worth the risk of betting on. Bet on the spread and/or Over/Under instead.
Against the spread
BET UMASS +41.5 (-110).
The Nittany Lions have only beaten 1 of their 5 opponents by 41.5-points or more this season, and that came in a 63-7 victory vs. Delaware in Week 2. Penn State should have no trouble defeating the Minutemen and their very weak defense, but I’m not quite sold on them winning by this big of a margin as I expect the backups to play for a majority of the 2nd half.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 54.5 (-110).
Expect the Nittany Lions to carve up this Minutemen defense that allows 453.9 yards per game, but the Nittany Lion defense only allows 210.6 yards per game and should limit UMass from scoring. I like Penn State to score at least 45 here which should help this game hit the Over even with the Minutemen having trouble on offense.
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