Toxicity aside, Cowboys enjoy advanced stat edge over Raiders in Week 12

Who’s more toxic? That team from the desert might have a chance when it comes to the big play, but does Dallas win out overall? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday afternoon as part of their annual NFL Thanksgiving showcase. The Cowboys all-time record on Thanksgiving sits at 31-21-1. Recent Thanksgiving games haven’t gone well for Dallas, with their last win happening in 2018 against the Washington Football Team.  The Cowboys and Raiders have played two times on Thanksgiving, 2009 and 2013, with Dallas winning both times.

The Cowboys enter this week with a 7-3 record after falling to the Kansas Chiefs in a 19-9 game that saw the offense struggle to move the ball consistently.  This will be the fourth and final game against the AFC West division, with the Cowboys currently holding a 1-2 record with a strong road win against the Los Angeles Chargers and two ugly losses against the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys are looking for their eighth win of the season and a winning record against the AFC, after beating New England in Week 6.

Quarterback Dak Prescott will be without one of his top weapons again with Amari Cooper missing his second game due to COVID-19.  They may be without CeeDee Lamb as well after Lamb suffered a concussion on Sunday against the Chiefs.

The Raiders will travel to Dallas with a 5-5 record on the season and a three-game losing streak. Adversity has been the keyword to the Raiders season after firing their Head Coach Jon Gruden and then their two first round picks (Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette) from the 2020 draft due to off the field issues. Their offense has had difficulty scoring points as of late, averaging 14 points per game over the last three weeks.

The Cowboys and Raiders all-time record is squared up at 6-6.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.