The Toronto Blue Jays (60-50) and Boston Red Sox (57-51) open up a 3-game set Friday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 7-0
The Blue Jays lost 6-1 as -169 home favorites vs. the Baltimore Orioles Thursday. Toronto has lost 4 of its last 5 contests and is 3rd in the AL East, 7½ games back of the division-leading Orioles.
The Red Sox lost 6-3 as +111 underdogs at the Seattle Mariners Wednesday. Boston has also lost 4 of its last 5 contests and is 4th in the division, 9½ games behind Baltimore.
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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Alek Manoah vs. LHP James Paxton
Manoah (2-8, 5.87 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.79 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 76 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home win vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.92 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 18 ER) in 8 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 4-1, 1.71 ERA (42 IP, 8 ER) in 7 starts
- 2023 vs. Red Sox: 0-1, 5 IP, 5 R (2 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, an 8-3 road loss May 3
Paxton (6-2, 3.34 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 70 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-2 loss at San Francisco Giants Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 2-0, 2.25 ERA (28 IP, 7 ER) in 5 starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 6-3, 3.98 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 28 ER) in 11 starts
- 2023 vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 5-0 road win June 30
Blue Jays at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Red Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-145) | Red Sox -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 2
Moneyline
Boston (-155) should improve to 8-0 on the season vs. Toronto. However, there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when the Red Sox should win by multiple runs.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The Red Sox have beaten the Blue Jays by 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 meetings. The Blue Jays’ last 3 losses have been by multiple runs and they are a league-worst 9-22 on the run line in divisional matchups. Add a struggling Manoah to the mix and this game could get out of hand very quickly for Toronto.
BET RED SOX -1.5 (+120).
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Over/Under
The Under has hit in 7 of the Blue Jays’ last 8 games and they’re averaging just 2.67 runs over their last 3. While Manoah is having the worst season of his career, he has given up 4 or more earned runs in just 1 of his last 4 starts.
Paxton has been reliable this year, allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in 11 of 13 starts, and should help the Under hit Friday at Fenway Park.
BET UNDER 10.5 (-110).
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