The Toronto Blue Jays (18-13) and Boston Red Sox (18-14) play the finale of a 4-game set at Fenway Park Thursday. First pitch is at 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 3-0
The Jays have lost 4 in a row after having their 6-game winning streak snapped. The Red Sox have beaten them 6-5, 7-6 and 8-3. Toronto was sloppy Wednesday, committing 4 errors and allowing 3 unearned runs to cross the plate. They are now 7 games back of Tampa in the division.
The Red Sox have won 5 straight and are 7-3 over the last 10. They have pulled within a half-game of Toronto for 3rd place in the NL East. C Connor Wong is hitting .588 (10-for-17) with 3 HRs, 2 doubles and 4 RBIs over the last 7 days.
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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Gausman (2-2, 2.33 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP.
- Last start Saturday against Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 13 K
- Has at least 11 K in 3 of last 4 starts
- Last 5 GS vs. Red Sox: 2-0, 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 39 K in 26 IP
Bello (0-1, 6.57 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.87 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 12 1/3 IP.
- Last start Saturday against Cleveland Guardians: 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K
- 3 career GS vs. Toronto: 0-2, 7.62 ERA, 2.31 WHIP and 13 K in 13 IP
Blue Jays at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Red Sox +145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
The Blue Jays are trying to avoid a sweep and have their best pitcher on the hill. Gausman has been great against Boston, and Bello has not fared well against Toronto. So the books have stacked the deck in their favor. It’s not totally out of bounds to take a -175 ML, but I’d rather inherit some minor risk in a parlay.
Take the BLUE JAYS ML + KEVIN GAUSMAN 5 K’s (-105). Gausman has 5+ K’s in each start this year and in 4 of his last 5 against Boston.
Run line/Against the spread
You’re going to pay for either side of the RL here. The Jays are 15-16 on the RL (9-10 road), and Boston is 18-14 (10-9 home). The first 2 games of the series were 1-run games.
It’s best to stay away here. PASS.
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Over/Under
It’s a chilly 47 degrees with an 8-mph breeze coming in from left-center field. That leans to the Under, but there are considerable Over trends. The Over is 7-0 in the Red Sox’s last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 4 games. The Over is 4-0 in Bello’s last 4 starts and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the teams in Boston. The Over is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings overall.
I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-105).
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