So they felt quite at home. But the poor duckling who had been the last one out of his egg, and who looked so ugly, was pecked and pushed about and made fun of by the ducks, and the chickens as well. “He’s too big,” said they all. The turkey gobbler, who thought himself an emperor because he was born wearing spurs, puffed up like a ship under full sail and bore down upon him, gobbling and gobbling until he was red in the face. The poor duckling did not know where he dared stand or where he dared walk. He was so sad because he was so desperately ugly, and because he was the laughing stock of the whole barnyard.
-Hans Christian Andersen: “The Ugly Duckling”
We all remember the tale, although perhaps some of us are more removed from elementary school than others. Back in 1843 Danish poet and author Hans Christian Andersen penned the tale of “The Ugly Duckling,” which told the story of a small bird born in a barnyard who suffered abuse from the others around him until he matures into a beautiful swan, stunning those who previously mocked and ridiculed him.
With the start of free agency in the National Football League upon us, there are some potential ugly ducklings waiting to hear the phone ring. Players who perhaps need a change or scenery, a new scheme fit, different coaching or just another shot to become the players they can be. The league’s own versions of the Andersen classic. Here are 11 potential swans for the 2020 NFL season, listed with either their current or their most recent team.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As we await word on what Bruce Arians will do with his current quarterback, it is important to remember that if he moves on from Tampa Bay or not, Jameis Winston is going to need a bit more development to be a solid and consistent NFL quarterback.
Last season, in Arians’ vertical-based passing offense, Winston had quite the roller-coaster ride. Sure, he threw for 5,109 yards, the most in the league. Sure, he threw 33 touchdowns, second only to Lamar Jackson. But when you move away from some of these counting statistics you get the full picture of Winston’s 2019 campaign. His NFL quarterback rating of 84.3 placed him 26th in the league, behind Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Allen and even Joe Flacco. His Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANY/A) of 6.15 was good for 18th in the league, and his interception percentage of 4.8 was the highest in the league.
Due to another counting stat: His league-high 30 interceptions.
That big number might force Arians to move on from Winston, but when you pour through his film from a season ago, you might find some of what you see. For example, take this deep shot to Mike Evans against the Carolina Panthers:
Facing a first-and-10 against the Panthers, Tampa Bay lines up with Winston under center and with a tight bunch to the right. Evans is isolated to the left. The Buccaneers run a vertical concept sometimes termed 969, with dual go routes on the outside and a dig route in the middle of the field. Winston sees the Panthers in single-high coverage and comes to Evans on the go route. The receiver does an excellent job with his release off the line and gets to the outside, quickly beating the press coverage and getting open for his QB. Combine the release and route with a perfect throw, and Tampa Bay has a big play.
And yes, every route was open on this snap, just to be clear.
Then there was this read and throw in the red zone, also against the Panthers:
To the three-receiver side the Buccaneers run a Dino – or double post – concept with O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin. Evans runs a go route on the backside of the passing concept. Concerned with Evans, the one safety drops to help over the top of a potential vertical route. That creates dual one-on-one matchups backside, with no inside help on either post route.
The concern over Evans draws potential safety help away from the three-receiver side of the formation, and leaves both the backside safety and backside corner on islands with no help to the inside. Winston throws a strike, and the Buccaneers are in the end zone.
Winston might have racked up the interceptions a season ago, but reads and throws like this show he still has promise in a vertical-based passing offense. That would make him still a fit for what Arians runs, but if he does have to find a new home, there is a ton of potential for his next offensive coordinator to mold and sculpt.