The Texas Rangers (8-6) and Houston Astros (7-8) finish a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park Sunday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Rangers were pummeled 8-2 Saturday as +163 road underdogs. They’ve lost 2 of 3 with they both by at least 6 runs. Texas is 7th in scoring at 5.44 runs per 9 innings, but the pitching has improved with the addition of SP Jacob deGrom. The Rangers staff is 5th in least home runs allowed (12) and 10th in strikeouts (136). They are without SS Corey Seager (hamstring) until mid-May.
Houston has yet to hit its stride offensively without 2B Jose Altuve (thumb), but defensively, it is 5th in ERA (3.65). The Astros are 5-5 over the last 10 and 4-5 at home overall. 2B Mauricio Dubon has played admirably in Altuve’s absence, leading the team with a .356 batting average.
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Rangers at Astros projected starters
LHP Andrew Heaney vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Heaney (1-1, 8.22 ERA) makes his 3rd start this season. He has a 1.70 WHIP, 14.1 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 7 2/3 innings.
- After rough 1st start (7 ER in 2 2/3 IP), allowed just 1 unearned run in 5 IP with 10 K of 11-2 home win vs. Royals Monday
- Career vs. Astros: 3-4, 3.54 ERA (61 IP, 24 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 starts, last facing Houston in 2021
Valdez (1-1, 1.89 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 19 innings.
- Has gone 7 IP with 2 ER in each of his last 2 starts with 14 K total
- Career vs. Rangers: 6-3, 2.55 ERA (67 IP, 19 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 10 starts and 3 relief appearances
- Last season vs. Rangers: 3-1, 1.56 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 5 starts
Rangers at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:57 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-120) | Astros -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Rangers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 3, Rangers 2
Moneyline
With the way Astros have played, there’s no way I’m taking a -200 ML on them against anyone. They’re facing a strikeout pitcher that could beat them Sunday as well.
I just don’t have enough confidence in the Rangers (+165) to take them outright. The Astros are also 10-1 in Valdez’s last 11 starts against teams with a winning record.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
BACK TEXAS +1.5 (-120).
I think the Rangers could win this one. Before this weekend, the last 3 games between the clubs were decided by 1 run. This is a budding rivalry that should heat up as the season goes on.
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Over/Under
The forecast calls for the wind to be blowing in at 10.3 mph. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston. The Under has hit in 4 of the last 5 between the teams overall. Take that information and add in the talented starters going, and it’s enough for me to go UNDER 8 (-115).
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