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The No. 6 Texas Longhorns (3-0) take on the Baylor Bears (1-2) on Saturday at McLane Stadium in the Big 12 opener for both teams. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Texas vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Longhorns failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites in their 31-10 win over Wyoming in Week 3 as the Under (48.5) cashed. Texas needed a 21-point 4th quarter to win the game.
The Bears secured their 1st win of the season in Week 3, beating LIU 30-7, but not covering as 45-point home favorites as the Under (53.5) cashed. Baylor is set to play its 4th straight home game to begin the season.
Texas is No. 6 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
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Texas at Baylor odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texas -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Baylor +475 (bet $100 to win $475)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas -14.5 (-110) | Baylor +14.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Texas at Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 30, Baylor 17
Moneyline
Even with Texas being heavily favored in Saturday’s Big 12 matchup, AVOID the moneyline in this game. Taking the Longhorns at -650 odds isn’t advised given the minimal profit you’ll receive if they win.
Against the spread
BAYLOR +14.5 (-110) is the play in this game despite the Bears struggling through the 1st 3 weeks. Texas and Baylor are both playing its 1st conference game of the season, and the Bears can keep it closer than expected at home.
At the same time, the Longhorns needed 21 points in the 4th quarter of last week’s game just to beat Wyoming at home. Texas could have still been looking back at its win over Alabama in Week 2, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Longhorns respond on Saturday.
Over/Under
UNDER 49.5 (-110) is the pick in this game as Baylor’s offense has looked inconsistent to begin the season. Even QB Quinn Ewers looked out of sorts for Texas last week, completing only 11 of his 21 attempts for 131 yards and 2 TDs.
Texas and Baylor are a combined 2-4 to the Over in the 1st 3 weeks of the season. Plus, the Over is 1-9 in the last 10 meetings overall.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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