Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 7

Examining touchdowns scored thus far in 2021 to find useful fantasy nuggets.

Touchdowns. Tuddies. Scores. Paydirt. Sixers. TDs.

Whatever you want to call them, they’re under the TTT fantasy microscope this week.

More specifically, we’re looking at who’s scoring them and who’s not, and what it has meant for fantasy so far — and going forward — as we approach midseason.

We’re doing a touchdown stat analysis of all of the major fantasy positions, including defense, and we start (as usual) with the …

Quarterbacks

Total TDs (passing + rushing)

Patrick Mahomes 19 (18 passing-1 rushing), Tom Brady 18 (17-1), Josh Allen 17 (15-2), Kyler Murray 17 (14-3), Dak Prescott 16 (16-0), Matthew Stafford 16 (16-0), Justin Herbert 15 (14-1), Joe Burrow 14 (14-0), Aaron Rodgers 14 (12-2), Kirk Cousins 13 (13-0), Jaylen Hurts 13 (8-5), Jameis Winston (13 (12-1)

Fantasy takeaways

  • Mahomes, the current positional leader in average fantasy points per game with 31.8 (Huddle Performance scoring), is on pace for 54 total TDs and 51 passing scores, which would eclipse his career highs from 2018 when he paced QBs with 494.1 fantasy points (30.9 per contest). KC’s less-than-formidable defense, which is surrendering 29.3 points per game, is prodding Mahomes to keep the pedal to metal late into games.
  • The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (fifth with an average of 28.6 fantasy points) and the Panthers’ Sam Darnold (10th with 24.6) are the only current top-10 fantasy QBs who don’t rank among the top 12 in total TDs. Jackson (11 total TDs), though, leads all QBs with 392 rushing yards and is averaging a career-best 281 aerial yards per game, while Darnold (12 total TDs) is tied with Hurts for the positional lead with five rushing scores.
  • Prescott (seventh with 26.9 fantasy points per outing) and Stafford (eighth with 26.4) are the only top-10 fantasy QBs without a rushing score. Prescott has run for 70 yards on 22 carries, while Stafford has 26 yards on 18 rushes. Both QBs, not coincidentally, are coming back from injury-marred 2020 seasons.

TD pass percentage leaders

Winston 10.3 percent, Stafford 8.0, Burrow 8.0, Russell Wilson 8.0, Mahomes 7.4, Prescott 7.4, Murray 7.2, Allen 6.5, Rodgers 6.5, Brady 6.4

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Playing on the run-heaviest team in the league (54.74 percent of total plays), the Saints’ Winston ranks 31st in the league with 116 passing attempts but is tied for ninth with 12 TD tosses. Winston, who has had games of five and four TD passes so far, is averaging only 178.4 passing yards per contest and ranks 17th among QBs who have played three or more games with 21.4 fantasy points per outing.
  • Stafford on Sunday enjoyed his third game this season with three or more passing scores and has had a banner start to his first season in Sean McVay’s Rams offense. In his 12 seasons with the Lions, Stafford had a TD pass percentage of 4.6, with his full-season high-water mark coming in 2011 when he had a 6.2 rate, throwing for a career-high 41 TDs. That’s the only season in which he’s had more than 32 scoring passes.
  • Burrow has thrown multiple TD passes in all six of his games this season after doing so in only four of his 10 games as a rookie a year ago when he ranked 28th in the league with 3.2 TD toss percentage.

Running backs

Total TDs (rushing + receiving)

Derrick Henry 10 (10-0), Austin Ekeler 7 (4 rushing-3 receiving), Ezekiel Elliott 6 (5-1), Aaron Jones 6 (4-2), James Conner 5 (5-0), Darrell Henderson 5 (4-1), Kareem Hunt 5 (5-0), Cordarrelle Patterson 5 (1-4), James Robinson 5 (5-0), Jonathan Taylor 5 (4-1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Ekeler, fantasy’s second-ranked back with 21.5 points (point-per-reception scoring) per game, has already set a career season high with his four rushing TDs. Ekeler is on pace to score 20 TDs, which would smash his 2019 career high of 11 — a total that included a running back-best eight receiving TDs.
  • Henry, who has finished either first or second among RBs with 17 and 18 touchdowns, respectively, the past two seasons, is on pace for a whopping 28 scores in 2021. He is averaging a league-most 29.6 total touches per game — a full seven touches more than any other player.
  • Patterson already has as many TDs (5) in five games this season as he totaled in his previous three seasons combined and is tied with the Packers’ Jones for the RB lead with four receiving scores. Patterson’s season career high for TDs was set back in his rookie season of 2013 with the Vikings when he had nine total (four receiving, three rushing and two on kickoff returns).

Most total touches with 1 or fewer TDs

Mark Ingram 90 touches (1 TD), Chuba Hubbard 85 (1), Alexander Mattison 83 (1), Chase Edmonds 79 (0), Javonte Williams 79 (1), Tony Pollard 76 (1), Miles Sanders 75 (0), Devin Singletary 73 (1), Christian McCaffrey 68 (1), A.J. Dillon 58 (1), Sony Michel 58 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • It’s not surprising to see Edmonds high on this list as Conner is now the team’s goal-line back with all five of his rushing scores coming from inside the opposition’s 5-yard line on seven total carries. Edmonds has had one carry inside the enemy 5-yard line but still is the only running back ranked among the top 34 in total PPR points (17th with 73.9) who has yet to score a TD.
  • It’s interesting to see both of the Panthers’ top backs listed here with McCaffrey and the rookie Hubbard combining for two TDs on 153 touches to date. Nineteen of those 153 combined touches and both of those TDs for the Carolina backs have come in the red zone. The aforementioned Darnold, meanwhile, has logged six red-zone rushes and has scored on five of them.
  • Sanders has yet to find his way into the end zone after scoring six TDs in each of first two NFL seasons. Sanders has a minus-one yard on nine red-zone rushes this season, including minus-five on four inside-the-5-yard-line carries. The second-year QB Hurts, meanwhile, has stolen the Philly close-in thunder with 47 yards and five TDs on 14 red-zone rushes. Sanders is 46th among RBs with an average of 6.5 fantasy points.

Wide receivers

Total TDs (receiving + rushing)

Cooper Kupp 7 (7 receiving, 0 rushing), Mike Williams 6 (6-0), DeAndre Hopkins 6 (6-0), Marquise Brown 5 (5-0), Ja’Marr Chase 5 (5-0), Tyreek Hill 5 (5-0), D.K. Metcalf 5 (5-0), Adam Thielen 5 (5-0), Antonio Brown 4 (4-0), Amari Cooper 4 (4-0), Mike Evans 4 (4-0), CeeDee Lamb 4 (4-0), Deebo Samuel 4 (3-1), Emmanuel Sanders 4 (4-0)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Kupp, whose two-TD game Sunday against the Giants was his third of the season, also leads the league in targets (68), red-zone targets (12), and is tied with Davante Adams and Hill with a league-most 46 receptions. His seven TD grabs this season already is the second-highest total of his five-season career, trailing only the 10 he had on 134 targets in 2019 when he finished fourth among wideouts with 270.5 PPR points.
  • Thielen finished third a season ago with 14 touchdown catches thanks to his mega-efficient red-zone production, reeling in 16-of-19 targets for 115 yards and 13 scores inside the opposition’s 20-yard line. He’s at it again this season, catching all six of his red-zone targets for 37 yards and four TDs.
  • In his last 11 games, including three last postseason, the Bucs’ Brown has caught 57 of 82 targets for 765 yards and 10 TDs — an average of 17.6 PPR points per outing. He’s averaging 19.1 through five games played in ’21.

Most targets with 1 or fewer TDs

Keenan Allen 58 targets (1 TD), Brandin Cooks 57 (1), Jakobi Meyers 52 (0), Michael Pittman Jr. 46 (1), DeVonta Smith 44 (1), Calvin Ridley 42 (1), Chase Claypool 42 (1), Laviska Shenault 41 (0), Darnell Mooney 39 (1), Tyler Boyd 38 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Allen has notched six or more TD grabs in each of his previous four seasons, but the Chargers’ target leader ranks fifth on the team with his one scoring reception so far. Fellow wideout Mike Williams’ ascendance (six TD catches on 33 receptions and 56 targets) has hurt Allen as he currently ranks 26th with an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game.
  • Since the start of last season, Diggs leads the league in targets (224) and receptions (164) and ranks second in receiving yards (1,998) but is tied for 16th with 10 TD grabs in 22 regular-season games. Among wide receivers, Diggs still ranks third, though, in total PPR points (423.9).
  • Meyers has 174 targets since the start of the 2019 season — 83 more than any other Patriots wide receiver or tight end — but famously is still waiting on his first NFL TD. During that span, including the postseason, only the Panthers (40) and Jets (39) have thrown fewer TD passes than the Patriots’ 44 in 39 games.

Tight ends

Total TDs (receiving + rushing)

Dawson Knox 5 (5 receiving-0 rushing), Rob Gronkowski 4 (4-0), Travis Kelce 4 (4-0), Mo Alie-Cox 3 (3-0), Mark Andrews 3 (3-0), Noah Fant 3 (3-0), Hunter Henry 3 (3-0), Juwan Johnson 3 (3-0), Dalton Schultz 3 (3-0),  C.J. Uzomah 3 (3-0)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Knox (finger) has been a surprise at fantasy’s shallowest position as he’s already doubled his career TD total six games into the season. Essentially he’s been the 2021 Robert Tonyan, ranking 17th at the position with 24 targets and 12th with 21 receptions but leading the way with five scoring receptions.
  • A high ratio of TDs to targets also is inflating the fantasy stocks of the Bengals’ Uzomah, the Colts’ Alie-Cox and the Saints’ Johnson … all have three TDs on 18 or fewer targets so far.
  • Gronk has missed the past three games with a rib injury but still is tied for second among 2021 tight ends with his four scoring grabs on 21 targets and 16 receptions. In his last 11 games, Gronkowski has eight TDs on 50 targets and 32 catches — meaning one of every four catches is counting for six points.

Most total targets with 1 or fewer TDs

Mike Gesicki 43 targets (1 TD), Kyle Pitts 36 (1), Tyler Conklin 30 (1), George Kittle 28 (0), Dan Arnold 26 (0), Jonnu Smith 25 (1), Cole Kmet 24 (0), Evan Engram 21 (1), Pat Freiermuth 20 (1), Robert Tonyan 20 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • On the other side of the touchdown ledger, the Dolphins’ Gesicki ranks fifth in 2021 tight end targets (43) and sixth in receptions (30) but has only one scoring grab to show for it. From 2019-20, he had 11 TDs on 174 total targets.
  • Niners star Kittle began his career with 12 TD catches in his first three seasons, but with a string of injuries limiting him to 12 games since the start of last season, he’s only added two more touchdowns since on 91 targets and 67 receptions.
  • As expected, regression has hit the Packers’ Tonyan and Patriots’ Smith hard this season with one TD apiece so far. In 2020, they finished ranked tied for first (11) and third (9), respectively, a year ago in tight end TDs, both with 52 touches or fewer.

Defensive/special teams

Non-offensive TDs (defensive TDs + special teams TDs )

Cowboys 3 (3-0), Buccaneers 2 (2-0), Jaguars 2 (0-2), 13 teams with 1 apiece

Fantasy takeaway …

  • The top annual fantasy team defenses/special team units typically feature multiple return-score TDs, and this season is no exception. The top eight 2021 D/STs, according to Huddle Performance scoring, all have at least one non-offensive touchdown, led by the league-leading Cowboys (57 total fantasy points) with their trio of interception-return TDs.