Yankees Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 2

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (85-56) and Boston Red Sox (69-72) open a 2-game Fenway Park series Tuesday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 7-6

The Yankees head into this series off important weekend wins over the Tampa Bay Rays and then a Monday off day. New York hit 4 home runs Sunday and has hammered out 15 HR in going 6-2 since Sept. 4.

The Red Sox are back at Fenway after a 2-4 road trip. The Sox are 9-5 with an .812 OPS at home since Aug. 11. That includes Boston taking 2 of 3 from New York Aug. 12-14.

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Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Cole (11-7, 3.20 ERA) has posted a 1.02 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 171 1/3 IP in 28 starts.

Owns a 5.29 ERA in 3 starts vs. Boston this season
Has a 2.02 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in his last 6 starts and all 6 went 6 innings-plus

Pivetta (9-11, 4.29 ERA) is tabbed for his 29th start of the season. He owns a 1.32 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 155 1/3 IP.

Has a 4.76 ERA, 1.47 WHIP at Fenway
Owns a 9.74 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Yankees (2021-22)

Yankees at Red Sox odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:13 p.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Red Sox +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+102) | Red Sox +1.5 (-125)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

The Yanks have mashed against Pivetta. He’s a fly-ball pitcher: New York has above-average indicators against fly-ballers, and that is with a .259 batting average on balls in play.

New York is a lean up until -155, so PASS on this offering.

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox get tangled in a lot of 1-run games. LAY OFF this RL action, unless the price on the Yankees -1.5 gets north of +105.

Over/Under

With a light breeze blowing out to left, the way Yankee power right-handers have hit lately, and with Cole coming off a high pitch count (118 pitches last game), there is value to be had on the high side of this figure.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-108).

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (71-42) and Boston Red Sox (56-58) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Saturday at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 6-5

The usually heavily-favored Yankees have lost bettors a lot of money in the last month, beginning with back-to-back losses to the Red Sox July 9-10. New York has gone just 10-19 in its last 29 games after losing the series opener 3-2 in 10 innings Friday.

The Red Sox have scuffled their way to a similar 9-19 mark since taking those July games from New York. The Boston offense has logged a mere .664 OPS over that span.

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Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Frankie Montas vs. RHP Kutter Crawford

Montas (4-9, 3.59 ERA) owns a 1.18 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 107 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

Shelled for 6 ER across just 3 IP in his Yankees debut at the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday.
Current Red Sox batters own a small-sample .869 OPS against him.

Crawford (3-4, 4.30 ERA) has appeared in 17 games (8 as a starter). He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 58 2/3 IP.

Had posted a 2.38 ERA in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance between July 4-Aug. 2 but allowed 5 runs in 5 IP in his last start at the Kansas City Royals Sunday.
Allowed 1 ER through 5 IP vs. the Yankees July 9.

Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Red Sox +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Red Sox +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

New York’s recent performances have swung the club being overpriced most nights into value territory. The Yankees have outscored foes 154-134 in the last 29 games despite their losing record.

Montas’ first Yankees outing came on long rest after a trade from the Oakland Athletics and a few days on the bereavement list. Look for a bounce-back performance on normal rest against a struggling Boston club that’s not on its best side against righties.

BACK NEW YORK (-150).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Consider a play on the favored Yanks if the tag hits +120 or better.

Over/Under

The starters and a cool, low-humidity evening in Boston say Under. Bullpen fatigue (and role question marks on the New York side) work against that.

PASS on a well-made number.

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (71-41) and Boston Red Sox (55-58) swing into a 3-game set with a Friday 7:10 p.m. ET contest at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 6-4

The usually heavily-favored Yankees have lost bettors a lot of money in the last month. Beginning with back-to-back losses to the Red Sox July 9-10, New York has gone just 10-18 in its last 28 games. But how we frame where the Yanks are now should at least include the fact they have outscored foes 152-131 in the last 28 games.

The Red Sox have scuffled their way to a similar 8-19 mark since taking those July games from New York. The Boston offense has been abysmal over that stretch (.665 OPS, huge 27% strikeout rate).

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Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

German (1-2, 5.09 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 17 2/3 IP.

Coming off his best start since being activated July 21 from the IL (shoulder), holding the St. Louis Cardinals to 1 run in 5 IP Saturday
Owns a 3.86 ERA in his last 5 starts against Boston

Eovaldi (5-3, 4.23 ERA) has notched a 1.23 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 93 2/3 IP (17 starts).

Has a 6.20 ERA across his last 5 starts against the Yankees and current New York batters own an aggregate .816 OPS against him
Toted a 3.34 ERA into the All-Star break, but has allowed 20 R (17 ER) in 21 IP since
Owns a 6,81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 35 2/3 IP at Fenway

Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:16 a.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees -120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+133) | Red Sox +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -135)

Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

New York’s recent performances — losses but in close games and with analytics supporting better results — have swung the club from likely-overpriced-most-nights into value territory.

German’s recent turns have been encouraging, and he’s backed by the better bullpen. Eovaldi has had too many recent missteps.

BACK NEW YORK (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Yanks are the lean. But a better price would be needed to a assume the extra cushion. PASS.

Over/Under

Both starters have been hurt by home runs. On a cooled-off, inward-breeze night at Fenway the Under is worth a watch. If the tag on 9.5 runs swings down to the -115 range, there is some value here. Otherwise, PASS.

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (61-24) wrap up their 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox (46-39) at Fenway Park on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball with the 1st pitch set for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. won the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 18-10, but Boston bounced back with a 6-5 win in extra innings Saturday.

The Yankees lead the season series 4-2 and have a plus-9 run differential in those meetings.

Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Taillon is 9-2 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 89 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Last start: Lost 5-2 Tuesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 5 K.
2021 vs. the Red Sox: 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 0 HR and 5.1 K/9 in 3 starts.
2022 road splits: 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.035 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 in 7 starts

Pivetta is 8-6 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 100 1/3 IP over 17 starts.

Last start: Lost 8-4 Tuesday at home vs. the Tampa Bay Rays with 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Yankees: One start, a 4-2 loss April 9 in N.Y. with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
2022 home splits: 4-3 with a 3.78 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4 HR and 8.3 K/9 in 8 starts.

Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:16 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Yankees -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -130)

Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the YANKEES (-135) instead of betting to win 1 unit because there’s a suspicious line freeze in the betting market since money has poured in on N.Y.’s ML according to Pregame.com, but the number hasn’t budged off the opener.

The Yankees have a 3-phase edge over the Red Sox (+110) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Taillon has far more impressive basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. Boston than Pivetta against N.Y. Also, the Yankees’ bullpen is 2nd in ERA and 1st in home runs allowed per 9 innings, according to FanGraphs.

Finally, N.Y.’s lineup leads MLB in several advanced hitting stats vs. right-handed pitching such as wRC+, ISO and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.

If your standard wager is $100 then FLAT BET that on the YANKEES (-135) to earn a $74.07 profit instead of betting $135 to win $100.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Yankees -1.5 (+120) just isn’t a big enough payout considering they are just 39-41 RL as favorites and the Red Sox +1.5 (-145) are 23-12 RL as underdogs.

Also, Boston’s RL has been increased due to sharp action with a slight majority of the cash being on the Red Sox but nearly 60% of the bets placed on the Yankees, according to Pregame.com.

Typically, you want to follow the money in sports betting when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors have much bigger units than your average Joe.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (+105) because both ballclubs are sending out bottom-of-the-rotation starters, the Over has cashed in 5 of the last 7 Yankees-Red Sox meetings and 4 consecutive Overs have been played in Boston.

But, N.Y.’s ML is my favorite look in this game and the Over feels somewhat “square” since the Under is a lot more expensive.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The San Diego Padres (47-36) host the San Francisco Giants (41-39) Thursday for the start of their 4-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco, who are 3-7 in the last 10 games, snapped a 6-game losing skid Wednesday with a 7-5 win at the Arizona Diamondbacks.

San Diego is 2-8 in the last 10 and were just swept in an 2-game interleague, home series vs. the Seattle Mariners.

Season series: Padres lead 4-2, outscoring the Giants 27-26

Giants at Padres projected starters

RHP Logan Webb vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Webb is 7-3 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 97 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

Last start: Loss 5-3 Saturday at home vs. the Chicago White Sox with 6 IP, 5 R (3 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K
2022 vs. the Padres: One start – a 2-1 home win April 13 – with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 7 K

Musgrove is 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 92 IP over 14 starts.

Last start: Loss 3-1 June 30 at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 10 K
2022 vs. the Giants: One start – a 2-1 win May 21 – with 7-scoreless IP, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K

Giants at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:38 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Giants +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Giants 1

Money line

BET PADRES (-150).

I’m higher on Musgrove than Webb and San Diego’s bullpen ranks better than San Francisco’s in K/BB rate (3.26-2.53) and xFIP (4.11-3.66), according to FanGraphs.

Also, Musgrove grades better than Webb in several advanced pitching stats such as exit velocity, hard-hit rate, whiff rate, chase rate and expected ERA, per Statcast.

Finally, the Padres have taken sharp action, which has steamed them up from a -130 ML opener to the current number.

Let’s follow the money and BET PADRES (-150).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Three of the six Giants-Padres meetings this season have been 1-run games, San Diego is 10-22 RL as a home favorite and San Francisco is 9-5 RL as a road underdog.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+105) because most of the money is on the Over 6.5 (-130), according to Pregame.com, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener.

This “line freeze” in the betting market suggests oddsmakers are daring bettors to take more pro-Over action.

Also, Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in MLB and ranks last in park factor.

However, it’s only a “lean” since this is a sharp total and San Diego’s ML is my favorite look in this game.

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (59-23) head to Fenway Park Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox (45-37) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. split an interleague back-to-back at the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday-Wednesday, but the Yankees are 7-3 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.

Boston lost Wednesday’s rubber match of a 3-game home set with the Tampa Bay Rays 7-1 and the Red Sox are just 4-6 SU in the last 10.

The Yankees beat the Red Sox 2-1 in their first 3-game set of 2022 and N.Y. outscored Boston 13-11 in that series.

Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Josh Winckowski

Cole is 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 93 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Last start: Won 13-4 Saturday at the Cleveland Guardians with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
2022 vs. the Red Sox: One start, a no-decision in N.Y.’s 6-5 home win April 8 with 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.

Winckowski is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 26 IP over 5 starts.

Last start: Lost 3-1 Saturday at the Chicago Cubs with 6 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 17 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 9 K in 3 starts.

Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Red Sox 2

Money line

LEAN YANKEES (-175) and I wouldn’t wager more than a half-unit on N.Y. since Cole has struggled at Fenway Park throughout his career and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed toward the Red Sox (+140) in the betting market, according to Pregame.com.

However, the Yankees have a 3-phase edge in starting and relief pitching and hitting over everyone in MLB including the Red Sox.

Also, N.Y. is 14-6 SU as road favorites vs. right-handed starters with a plus-11.1% return on investment (ROI) and an average final score of 5.15-2.80. Boston is 2-3 SU as home underdogs vs. righty starters with a minus-14.4% ROI and an average deficit of minus-1.40 (3.60-2.20).

I’d go light with N.Y.’s ML based on the aforementioned reasons, but if your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” $50 on the YANKEES (-175) to earn a $28.57 profit.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Cole is just 1-3 SU at Fenway for with a 5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 7 HRs allowed in 6 career starts and the Yankees -1.5 (-105) are just 17-17 RL as road favorites.

Over/Under

BET 0.75 units on the UNDER 8.5 (+110).

There’s also RLM headed south of the total since more than 85% of the action is on the Over 8.5 (-135) per Pregame.com. But, the Yankees-Red Sox opened with a 9-run total and has been lowered to the current number, which suggests oddsmakers are laying a trap with the total.

Lastly, N.Y. is 7-11-2 O/U as road favorites vs. righty starters with a plus-17.3% ROI toward the Under, Boston is 1-4 O/U as home underdogs vs. righty starters and Yankees-Red Sox is 2-6 O/U in their last 8 meetings at Fenway Park.

For what it’s worth, the UNDER 8.5 (+110) is my favorite look in this game.

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AL Wild Card Game: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox AL Wild Card Game odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (92-70) and Boston Red Sox (92-70) begin the 2021 MLB postseason Tuesday, facing off in the American League Wild Card Game. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Red Sox won 10-9

RHP Gerrit Cole is projected to start for the Yankees. He is 16-8 with a 3.23 ERA (181 1/3 IP, 65 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 30 starts this season.

Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-5 loss at Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
2021 vs. Red Sox: 2-2, 4.91 ERA (22 IP, 12 ER), 24 H, 9 BB, 31 K in four starts
Career vs. Red Sox (regular season): 5-3, 3.81 ERA (59 IP, 25 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 10 starts

RHP Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start for Boston. He is 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA (182 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 32 starts.

Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-0 shutout at Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
2021 vs. Yankees: 2-2, 3.71 ERA (34 IP, 14 ER), 38 H, 4 BB, 34 K in six starts
Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 3-4, 3.64 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 8/2 K/9 in 12 starts and three relief appearances

Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:04 a.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Red Sox 5, Yankees 3

Money line (ML)

BOSTON (+105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Red Sox are 7-1 in Eovaldi’s last eight starts. However, the loss was when the Yankees lit him up for 7 runs in 2 2/3 innings of an 8-3 setback in Boston Sept. 24 (two starts ago). He responded with his 6 shutout innings at Baltimore Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Yankees’ Cole has struggled lately. He is 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 15 ER) in his last three starts.

At +105, the value is definitely with BOSTON.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

ATS records: Yankees 76-86 | Red Sox 85-77

AVOID due to too many contradicting trends.

Boston is 39-42 ATS at Fenway; New York is 43-37 ATS on the road.

It was a tale of two seasons in their head-to-head battles in 2021. The Red Sox opened the season series 7-0 straight up/ATS. The Yankees closed the season series 6-0 SU/ATS.

In between, they split 3-3 SU with New York claiming a 5-1 ATS edge.

The Sox won six of the 10 meetings at Fenway Park, but the Yankees covered in six of the 10.

Over/Under (O/U)

O/U records: Yankees 69-88-5 | Red Sox 74-85-3

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) to WIN a HALF UNIT.

The Under was 13-6 in their head-to-head series this year, including 3-7 at Fenway.

The Under was also 16-13-1 in Cole’s 2021 starts and 16-15-1 in Eovaldi’s outings.

Expect a tight game with so much on the line as the loser will be eliminated and the winner will move on to face the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays in an ALDS.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD	W-L	SP	ROI
SINCE JULY 8	46-30	20-9	+13.422
–SP: Strongest plays; ROI*: Return on investment

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (88-67) host the New York Yankees (88-67) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Fenway Park . First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York won the first two games of this set by a combined score of 13-6 and snapped Boston’s seven-game winning streak in Friday’s series opener.

Season series: Red Sox lead 10-8.

LHP Jordan Montgomery makes his 29th start for the Yankees. He is 6-6 with a 3.55 ERA (149 2/3 IP, 59 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K Tuesday against the Texas Rangers.
Montgomery is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.16 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB through four starts against Boston this season.
vs. Red Sox on the current roster (144 PA): 4.41 FIP with a .260 batting average (BA), .309 wOBA, .400 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 19.4 K% and 86.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is Boston’s projected starter. He is 11-8 with a 4.97 ERA (146 2/3 IP, 81 ER), 2.6 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 29 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 5 K in Boston’s 6-3 home win over the New York Mets Tuesday.
Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA (18 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 4 BB and 20 K through four starts against New York this season.
vs. Yankees on the current roster (223 PA): 5.71 FIP with a .263 BA, .371 wOBA, .537 xSLG, 27.8 K% and 91.2 mph EV.

Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-170)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

I’m riding with the public and BETTING the YANKEES (-110) for 1 unit. According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the cash wagered is on the Red Sox while nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on New York at the time of writing.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

However, in this case, the oddsmakers are reacting to the market action by making New York’s money line cheaper. It’s a little extraordinary but this is “reverse line movement” (RLM) against what’s presumed to be “sharp” money.

While it’s one thing if the betting public favors the Yankees despite Montgomery’s winless record against the Red Sox and Rodriguez’s undefeated record vs. New York this season, it’s another thing that the sportsbooks are moving the line toward the Yankees despite all the pro-Red Sox money entering the market.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a heavy “lean” toward the Yankees +1.5 (-220) on the alternate run line because I could hear an argument to throw New York’s run line with another similarly priced game for an even- or plus-money payout.

More importantly, the Yankees are 17-4 ATS as road underdogs and the Red Sox are just 31-35 ATS as home favorites. On the other hand, New York is 28-41 ATS vs. AL East team while Boston is 37-35 ATS in divisional matchups.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-105) for a tiny wager because we also have RLM for the total of Yankees-Red Sox.

This game opened with a 10-run total but is ticking down despite two-thirds of the bets placed being on the Over. It’s always a red flag when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Also, these teams are tied for the first AL Wild Card seed and both are trying to hold off the Toronto Blue Jays for their place in the playoff play-in game.

Since there’ll most likely be a playoff-like atmosphere to this game, I figure it plays Under more often than not. Plus, New York is 9-18 O/U when Montgomery gets the start and the Under cashed in three of his four starts against Boston in 2021.

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (87-67) and Boston Red Sox (88-66) play the second game of a three-game set at Fenway Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Yankees LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. (2-2, 2.79 ERA) makes his 13th start and 21st appearance of the season. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 84 IP.

Allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks with 7 strikeouts across 4 1/3 IP in a no-decision against the Texas Rangers Monday.
Allowed at least 1 home run in each of his past nine starts.

Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta (9-7, 4.63 ERA) makes his 29th start of the season. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 across 144 IP.

Coughed up 3 runs on 7 hits and a walk over just 3 2/3 IP in a no-decision against the Baltimore Orioles Sept. 18.
Paddled for 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks across 1 2/3 IP in a loss at Yankee Stadium Aug. 18, in his only appearance against the Yankees this season.

Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Yankees +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The YANKEES (+100) are worth the play in this middle game, as they look to tie the Red Sox in the AL East standings with a week to go.

New York pounded Boston 8-3 in the series opener, and we’ll see another Bronx Bombers win in this one.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

YANKEES +1.5 (-190) are a fine play for the insurance, as they look for a repeat win and run-line cover. New York is on a roll and looking for its fifth consecutive victory. It won each of its last three games by 4 or more runs. Five of the Yankees’ last seven games were wins by 2 or more runs, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 9.5 (-130) is worth playing lightly, although it’s going to be a close shave. The Over/Under has alternated in each of the last six starts for Pivetta, while the Under is 4-1 across the last five outings for Cortes and 7-3 over his last 10 outings.

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (86-67) open their final regular-season series against the bitter rival Boston Red Sox (88-65) Friday, as both teams battle for AL Wild Card spots. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole (15-8, 3.03 ERA) makes his 29th start of the season. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and an American League-leading 12.3 K/9 through 169 1/3 IP.

Allowed 7 earned runs over 5 2/3 innings Sept. 19 against the Cleveland Indians, but was 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA through 33 1/3 innings across his previous six outings.
Is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA over three starts against the Red Sox, and lost both starts at Fenway Park.

Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.58 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, a league-low 1.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 173 2/3 IP.

Has not had a decision since an Aug. 17 road loss to the Yankees, but the Red Sox have won his last six starts. They are 18-12 when he takes the mound this year.
He is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA with a 34/2 K/BB over 31 1/3 innings through five starts against the Yankees.

Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:12 a.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+130) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Red Sox 5, Yankees 3

Money line (ML)

The Red Sox are 10-6 against the Yankees this season but have lost four of their last five games against them. New York has just one win through seven games this season at Fenway.

Both teams are playing well right now. The Yankees have won seven of their last 10 games, while the Red Sox, who lead the Yankees by two games in the wild-card race, have won seven in a row.

With Eovaldi’s dominance over the Yankees this season and how Boston has played with him on the mound, combined with Cole’s struggles against Boston, take the RED SOX (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Red Sox are 81-72 ATS this season, exactly 10 more wins and 10 fewer losses than the Yankees’ 71-82 ATS record.

This is only the 14th time all year that the Red Sox have been underdogs at home, and they are 8-5 ATS the previous 13 times. The Yankees are 38-36 ATS on the road but 22-32 ATS as road favorites.

Both teams have covered the spread in eight of the 16 games against each other.

Expecting a Boston outright win tonight, if you want some extra leeway for them, take the RED SOX +1.5 (-160).

Over/Under (O/U)

10 of the Yankees’ last 15 games had totals of 9 or more runs, while seven of the Red Sox’s last eight have reached that total.

Four of Eovaldi’s last six starts had totals of 9 or more runs.

However, 10 of the 16 games between the clubs stayed under 9 runs.

Take UNDER 8.5 (+105).

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