The NASCAR Cup Series heads down to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400. The green flag drops Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET with the race televised on FOX. Below, we analyze the Dixie Vodka 400 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
Dixie Vodka 400: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday, June 13 at 6:20 a.m. ET.
Sunday’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway will be the first sporting event with fans in the stands since mid-March. NASCAR will allow 1,000 fans, just military members or first responders, to attend as honorary guests. Fans will be required to wear masks, will be screened upon arrival and will be expected to follow physical-distancing guidelines at six feet apart.
Even with a smattering of people in the grandstands, this event will have a much different look and feel from previous seasons. From 2002 to 2019, the South Florida track hosted the final race of the season, leading to the crowning of the Cup Series champion. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch (+500 for Sunday’s race) won the championship with a checkered flag at this track last season, his second trip to Victory Lane at HMS in five years.
- Six of the previous seven races have been won by a driver starting fifth or better. Denny Hamlin (+1000), Joey Logano (+800), Brad Keselowski (+1000), Busch and Chase Elliott (+700) are in starting spots 1 through 5.
- Toyota has been the Victory Lane in two of the past three at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and four of the past seven.
- Busch leads all drivers with 463 laps led, although he ranks 12th among active drivers with a 16.33 Average-Finish Position (AFP) across his 15 career starts at this track.
- Rick Ware Racing’s J.J. Yeley (+100000) and Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell (+50000) lead all active drivers with four DNFs apiece.
Who is going to win the Dixie Vodka 400?
HAMLIN (+1000) was a big disappointment at Martinsville Wednesday night, but has had strong results at this track in the past. Look for a nice bounce back. Plus, he is a strong value at this price.
Hamlin has two career wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway, while posting four top-5 runs, 10 top-10 finishes, 256 laps led and a 10.53 AFP in 15 starts at the track.
KEVIN HARVICK (+400) is always a threat at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He leads all active drivers with a sparkling 6.42 AFP in 19 career starts. While he has just one win, he has placed inside the top 5 on 11 different occasions while leading 414 laps. He has never finished lower than 20th at this track, too.
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CHASE ELLIOTT (+700) has yet to taste victory at HMS, but has never finished lower than 15th, either. In fact, he has a 9.50 AFP, second best in the field among drivers with at least four starts.
Homestead-Miami Speedway prop bets
HARVICK (-154) is a strong play to finish inside the top 5. In addition, HAMLIN (+140) is worth a roll of the dice to finish in the top 5, too.
Among the best finishing position matchups, take HAMLIN (-112) to finish better than Keselowski. CLINT BOWYER (-106) is a good bet to outpace William Byron, while Florida native ARIC ALMIROLA (+125) is a value play over Tyler Reddick.
Homestead-Miami Speedway long-shot bets
AUSTIN DILLON (+1400) has the best potential to crash the party and spoil the day for the favorites. He has shown tremendous and consistent improvement since making his debut at this track in 2014. He improved to 15th in 2015, 12th in 2016, 11th in both 2017 and 2018 and eighth last season.
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