who do i start fantasy football – Page 6

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 5

Can gamers expect big things from this little wide receiver in Week 5?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 5

Tracking my predictions: 1-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It feels good to get back on track after some bad beats in the first three games. Last week, New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones occupied this space as the recommendation, and he finished with strong numbers in the driving rain. I projected 295 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and 10 rushing yards (26.75 fantasy points) under the belief there was a slight chance of light rain. My prediction turned out to be 81 percent accurate, which is better than we can say for the weather forecast. He posted 275 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and lost a yard rushing — not terrible considering the conditions and pressure of the game.

WR Deonte Harris, New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team

The Saints head on the road to face a defense that has been among the best in the league at limiting running backs while simultaneously being among the worst at containing wide receivers.

Washington has afforded running backs next to nothing in fantasy, permitting just the sixth-fewest points in PPR, and only seven teams have been tougher in standard scoring. Offenses have run the 15th-most times for the ninth-fewest yards and have found paydirt every 86 carries, which is the third-lowest frequency.

In the passing game, it hasn’t been much easier for running backs. Averages against of a mere 14.8 yards on 2.5 grabs both sit as the third-lowest numbers. The only positive for backfields is one in five catches has scored, which ranks second among the 18 teams to have given up a TD this way. Washington also has fared well vs. tight ends, relenting a lone TD over 24 catches faced.

Long story short, star running back Alvin Kamara will have an uphill climb, and it should come as no surprise if the Football Team does everything in its power to keep him from going hog wild.

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Provided the game indeed plays out in this manner, New Orleans will be forced to get the passing game going and to people other than AK41. This matchup is intriguing from a volume perspective. Washington has done a pretty good job of limiting downfield plays, which suggests wide receiver Marquez Callaway will not be as large of a factor.

The elevated potential for a lack of deep shots also can be attributed to a formidable front seven being able to get home on Jameis Winston playing behind a beaten-up offensive line that may be without LT Terron Armstead and center Erik McCoy once again. Expect Winston to be forced into quick-release passing around the line of scrimmage to help create an extension of the running game.

In this event, and presuming Washington can at least do a respectable job against Kamara, there’s a strong chance we see Harris get involved more than usual. He had eight targets last week against the New York Giants in a similar situation without McCoy and Armstead. The results were a modest five catches for 52 yards.

Other areas for fantasy profit potential can be found in one in every 11 catches by a receiver against Washington has scored, and only eight other teams have allowed fewer yards per catch to the position.

Additionally, Washington may be able to move the ball better than expected against a Saints defense that has had its faults defending the aerial game so far this year. The ninth-best rating makes it seem as if the Saints have dominated QBs, but when removing that Week 1 debacle by Green Bay, we’re talking about a defense that has allowed 305 yards with a few scores to Sam Darnold, 270 and a TD to Mac Jones in only his third game, and 402-2-1 to Daniel Jones last week. Taylor Heinicke can approach 300-2-1 for sure, which could put the Saints in a “need to pass” situation.

This one is geared mainly for PPR leagues, and while there aren’t any bye weeks yet to help ease the decision-making process of playing an inconsistent option like Harris, he’s capable of doing big things with limited touches. The pint-sized wideout and return man (possible added points in some leagues) could house it from a screen pass. He’s worthy of a flex spot to find out.

My projection: 5 receptions, 78 yards, 1 TD (18.8 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 4

With all eyes on Tom Brady’s return, QB Mac Jones has a chance to thrive in fantasy.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4

Tracking my predictions: 0-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Sitting 0-3 isn’t a great feeling, but I’ve been close enough with my rationale each week that sooner or later a break will go my way. Even through three unsuccessful attempts, sticking to the process is a must.

QB Mac Jones, New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In Week 4, my approach is slightly different than usual, because there won’t be too many scenarios in redraft or keeper leagues in which gamers are compelled to gamble at quarterback.

New England will see Tom Brady return to Gillette Stadium, but the more interesting storyline in fantasy is not necessarily the pressure of a primetime showdown vs. football royalty but how the rookie rebounds from a three-INT outing. Brady and Jones aren’t playing against each other in the way the broadcast narrative likes to paint it, so Jones mentally shaking off the worst outing of his young career is the more important factor.

The Buccaneers present the second-worst defense of the position in fantasy football, and the only reason Washington ranks worse is due to giving up a pair of QB rushing scores. There also is a strong possibility we see Tampa come out swinging for the fences, which puts the Patriots in a “keep pace” mentality, at least to a degree more than usual.

The ideal game plan for the Patriots is a ground-control approach that disrupts Tampa from getting into a rhythm by keeping Brady at bay. If that is how New England addresses the game and is able to stick with it, this doesn’t do much for Jones, so understand it is a legitimate concern. It’s unlikely the Patriots can contain all of these weapons and keep Brady’s guys out of the end zone for long.

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The Bucs have given up 403-3-1 to Dak Prescott (Week 1), 300-2-3 to Matt Ryan (Week 2 garbage time), and 343-4-0 to Matthew Stafford (Week 3). Jones isn’t close to being on the same level as any of those veterans, but serious injuries to Tampa Bay’s secondary can make the rookie look like a seasoned pro. Pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder) missed last Sunday and began this week of practice with a DNP. The Buccaneers have the fewest sacks in the league, and no team has a worse percentage of sacks in relation to opposing QB drop-backs (2.04 percent).

New England’s unheralded cast of receivers stepped up last week, and these guys are capable of making some noise against a battered Tampa secondary. The tight ends should be a larger factor after James White (hip) was lost for the year, and running against the Bucs is never ease, which promotes more short-area passing as an extension of the running game. This was a favorable matchup for tight ends in 2020, and it has carried over into this season.

If you’re in a two-QB setting, or face a tough matchup for a rotational passer, Jones should be on your radar. Don’t get cocky and bench a safe starter for the rookie. Play Jones only where you feel comfortable taking a sizeable risk. This recommendation isn’t for everyone, and it will require the Alabama first-rounder to play his best football to date in the NFL.

My projection: 295 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and 10 rushing yards (26.75 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 3

How high will this Eagle fly in Week 3 fantasy lineups?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 3

Tracking my predictions: 0-2-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Not off to a great start, but that’s why this is about gambles and not locks … The Week 2 selection was Jared Cook, and while it amounted to a loss, my train of thought was on the right track.

The Chargers threw him a short touchdown pass that was called back for an illegal shift, but even with the would-be score, my projection remained outside of the “win” range. If the TD stood, his final line of 3-30-1 (12 PPR) still was short of the 16.4 points I projected. Instead, the final number was way off the mark by 10.6 PPR points.

One thing I hadn’t accounted for was the possibility Dallas would move linebacker Micah Parsons to defensive end to cover an injury. I was banking on the rookie’s experience getting used against him by the veteran Cook.

Shake off the second straight loss and on to Week 3 we go. …

WR Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Let’s pick on the Cowboys again! In Week 1, Reagor landed all six of his targets for 49 yards and a score at the Atlanta Falcons. The next game brought the San Francisco 49ers to town, and the 2020 first-rounder was a total flop for fantasy purposes. He caught only two of his five looks, registering a whopping five yards of offense.

It wasn’t all bad, though, because Reagor would have scored a 36-yard touchdown if he had not barely stepped out prior to the catch to nullify the play. Even with one fewer target than in the previous contest, quarterback Jalen Hurts is clearly looking for the maturing receiver, and there’s a blossoming connection unfolding before our eyes.

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From the other side of the matchup, the Cowboys have surrendered the second-most yards to the position through two games of action. The three touchdowns allowed have come on 32 receptions, or one every 10.67 snags. That’s a neutral rate at 13th, but it leans toward the positive.

A definitively strong metric working in Reagor’s favor: 16 catches per game granted by this divisional foe. Only five teams have permitted more to the position. This opponent is ninth for average yards per reception, and just 10 teams have allowed more PPR points per catch.

Dallas lost pass-rushing team leader DeMarcus Lawrence in Week 1, and the defense is in only its third game of learning Dan Quinn’s system. There shouldn’t be a ton of pressure on Hurts, and even when he feels the rush, his athleticism allows for he and Reagor to go into scramble-drill mode. Downfield wideouts are exceptionally dangerous in this situation.

While the Eagles have played well on defense, Dallas’ offense is capable of posting points with the best of them, so there’s a slightly stronger than remote chance for a high-scoring contest. The Over/Under is 52.5 for this Monday Night Football tilt, and it’s tough to see either team scoring something like 38-14 or worse of a blowout, which suggests Philly is likely to score two or three times, at a minimum, if this game reaches the over (probably doesn’t). If that is indeed how it plays out, Reagor is bound to be a large part of the offense. If not, he’s still a factor and can’t score from anywhere on the field.

My projection: 7 targets, 5 catches, 88 yards, 1 TD (19.8 PPR)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 2

Can you smellellell what this Charger is Cookin’?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 2

Tracking my predictions: 0-1-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Week 1 summary: Barf.

The case for San Francisco 49ers running back Trey Sermon was laid out rather convincingly, if I do say so myself … until it all crumbled down upon me in a Kyle Shanahan-induced, Jenga-like heap of gameday inactives. Sermon being a healthy scratch was one of the most shocking gameday personnel decision I’ve see in the NFL in some years.

Not at all bitter. Nope. Nuh uh. Not one bit.

I stand by the decision with steely commitment. My logic was sound … how was anyone to know Shanny would play games with not only Sermon but WR Brandon Aiyuk.

My reasoning proved true after RB Raheem Mostert (knee) exited early (c’mon, everyone should have seen that coming!) and paved the way for backup rookie Elijah Mitchell to run roughshod over the lowly Detroit defense. All told, a pair of San Francisco backups totaled 24.2 PPR points. My Sermon projection was 22.5. It’s not a win, nor even a push.

I’ll take the “L” and move on to Week 2, but first, I will apologize if my advice led to Sermon being stuck into someone’s lineup given how close we were to kickoff before anyone had a clue he’d be inactive. Being wrong isn’t what bothers me the most … costing someone else a win gnaws at me.

TE Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Last week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski was good for 90 yards and a pair of scores on his five grabs, illustrating Tom Brady isn’t the only one with indecent pictures of Father Time.

Cook is no Gronk, and the way the latter stuck it to the ‘Boys is not even the basis for the well-traveled veteran being the focus of this article. I’m not going to pretend like it doesn’t help my argument, but the real driving factor here is what Dallas is doing at linebacker in passing situations. Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith — superior players against the run — come off the field in favor of Micah Parsons and Keanu Neal.

There is no question the Neal-Parsons combo provides more athleticism in coverage, but this duo is about as inexperienced as it gets in the NFL playing coverage linebacker. Neal, a former safety under current Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in Atlanta, transitioned to the position just this offseason. And Parsons, for as ridiculously talented as he is, remains a rookie with one whole NFL game under his belt, regardless of position.

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These two guys are dynamic and rangy, covering territory far faster than their run-stuffing counterparts, but the NFL is such a mentally quick game that even a pro moving from a similar position — in the box safety — is bound to have hiccups at first, let alone for a rookie.

This game is on the road once again for the Cowboys, and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) won’t be available to apply pressure on Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The second-year Oregon product is unflappable and showed a nearly seamless transition between a collegiate offense to the pros in 2020 and now to yet another new system in ’21.

The Bolts have two strong receivers, especially with Keenan Allen, for Dallas to be preoccupied with stopping. Mike Williams is coming off his most catches ever in a game last week. The Chargers really don’t have a bona fide WR3 at the moment, and running back Austin Ekeler wasn’t even targeted in the passing game, much to the dismay of his PPR owners.

That leaves Cook. The veteran came over from New Orleans in the offseason, following Joe Lombardi, LA’s new offensive coordinator. The system concepts are more than familiar for the 34-year-old tight end. Maybe Cook isn’t quite as athletic as he once was in his prime, but there is wisdom that comes with experience, and he understands nuance better than at any point in his career. He also has seen a serious scoring uptick in the past few seasons. One of my favorite value buys this draft season, here’s what I wrote about him entering the year:

He scored 25 total touchdowns in 117 appearances prior to his two-year stint with the Saints, a 29-game stretch in which he registered 16 TD grabs.

While Cook didn’t find the end zone in Week 1, he landed five of his eight targets for 56 yards. Williams isn’t going to see 12 looks every game, and some of those extra plays will go Cook’s direction. Unless Ekeler gets a major boost in receiving work this weekend, Cook is a strong bet to outperform last week’s 10.6 PPR points.

… That is, so long as he isn’t a surprise healthy scratch prior to kickoff!

My projection: 6 receptions, 64 yards, 1 TD (18.4 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 1

San Fran’s rookie RB should clobber the Lions, but just how big of a wallop?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 1

RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions

I’ve been banging the Sermon drum ever since he was drafted by the Niners last spring, and he will come out of the gates firing on all cylinders. San Fran is in a perfect situation to feed the rookie rusher in tandem with Raheem Mostert.

The 49ers are one of the most prolific rushing teams in the league, and they also love to share the touches — sometimes to the detriment of fantasy owners.

San Francisco finds its two primary wide receivers coming back from injuries this offseason. Both Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring) and Deebo Samuel (glute) are healthy. Neither missed practice as of Wednesday, which is almost always the day anyone remotely iffy to play will sit. Furthermore, tight end George Kittle is ready to rock-n-roll. While gamers love him for his downfield work, he’s among the league’s top blockers at the position.

In 2020, the Lions allowed running backs to average 115.9 rushing yards (5th most), 48.1 receiving yards (most), 32.2 PPR points (2nd most), and a rushing touchdown every 21.1 attempts (third-highest frequency). One in 7.9 catches by the position went into the end zone — no team surrendered touchdowns at a higher clip.

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But that was 2020, you may be thinking, and we’re starting a new season, fresh as a daisy. In most situations, that is how we should be thinking. Yes, the Detroit defense has possibly improved since we last saw them play meaningful football … it is a new coaching regime, employing a new defensive alignment, after all. But there’s also only so much one should expect in the first game under an incoming staff. Switching to a 3-4 base leaves many questions to be answered in ways only done by seeing the on-field product, and that kind of transition rarely is an expeditious one. They’re NFL coaches … not miracle workers here.

Detroit is actually built to be better vs. the pass than the run from a personnel perspective, although that’s not saying a heck of a lot to the secondary’s credit. Now faster on the outside at linebacker, it should work against the Lions. This defense will struggle to contain inside runs this year, especially early on. The nature of San Francisco’s zone-blocking system will pit their own leverage against the quickness gained by the boys in Honolulu blue, creating cutback lanes on outsize zones and setting up misdirections. This is evidenced as the Kyle Shanahan offenses ranking inside of the top 10 for counters and powers during the past two years.

Detroit will have its hands full. This offense as a whole is as dangerous as it has been in recent memory, the fullback is a beast, and the offensive line is among the game’s best. Expect massive holes for the rookie in his pro debut.

My projection: 14 carries, 67 yards, 2 TDs, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 0 TD (22.5 PPR points)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 17

This Washington Football Teamer has a prime opportunity ahead to be a fantasy football hero in Week 17.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 17

Tracking my predictions: 5-10-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It’s a shame I technically have to call WR Jerry Jeudy a loss after including him here last week. He finished 6 percent below what constitutes the above range for a win. The rookie had every chance to succeed, seeing a hearty 15 targets, but dropped five passes, including the projected touchdown grab.

Five.

F.I.V.E.

Jeudy still finished with 12.1 of the projected 16.2 PPR points, but what are you going to do … on the right track, and the player didn’t execute.

WR Cam Sims, Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback Alex Smith is the wild card here. I expect him to play, because, as I wrote in this week’s Free-agent Forecast, Riverboat Ron Rivera will gamble on a version of Smith that isn’t quite 100 percent instead of putting his playoff fortunes on the line with Taylor Heinicke starting.

In the event I’m wrong and Heinicke starts, I like Sims a little less, but he still can have a useful day for fantasy purposes. The primary reason is wideout Terry McLaurin has a high-ankle sprain and was still in a boot this week. He is a long shot to play, and his absence once again opens up looks. Last week, Sims saw nine targets with McLaurin out of the lineup, matching a personal best that he set a month ago.

Six of the nine looks came from Dwayne Haskins, and all but one were incomplete. The lone connecting shot was a blown coverage in which Sims ran for a 50-yard gain. He caught two of three Heinicke targets for 13 total yards after Haskins was benched.

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The 6-foot-5 Sims has not scored since Week 6 at the New York Giants, but he also now has the best opportunity to be put into that situation. Philadelphia has given up 16 touchdowns to WRs in its 15 games, allowing one every 12.6 catches — a figure sitting in the middle of the pack on the year.

The last five games tells a much different tale. The Eagles have given up nine scores in that time, coming at a clip of once every 8.4 snares, which is the seventh-highest frequency. Only six teams have permitted more receptions, and just the Detroit Lions have yielded more yards per game since Week 11. Twelve wideouts have posted PPR double figures in the last seven games, and five of those efforts were good for at least 23 fantasy points.

In that most recent five-week stretch, Philly has allowed three different performances of exactly 121 receiving yards, not to mention the 169- and 177-yarders.

Even if Sims — who has eight or more targets in three of his last four games — doesn’t find the end zone, he can make a dent with PPR contributions. The best way to attack this defense is via the passing game, and Sims is poised to be a major part of any success found through the sky in Week 17.

My projection: 6 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD (19.6 PPR fantasy points)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 16

Will this rookie deliver the fantasy football goods in a rematch vs. a divisional rival?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

Tracking my predictions: 5-9-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Woo-hoo! Off the schneid after a brutal, seven-week losing streak … last week’s pick of Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts paid off in a huge way. I originally had him forecasted for over 34 fantasy points but struggled to justify it, so I toned it down to being just shy of 30 points. He finished north of 41 and rewarded anyone brave enough to chance it along the way.

For as good as it feels to get one right, it’s time to move on to Week 16 and make it two in a row.

WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

It has been six long games without a touchdown for Jeudy, and the rookie has fallen on tough times in that window of action. He has no more than four catches in any of the games, generating 68 or fewer yards in each one. In the last five, his yardage figures are as follows: 37, 0, 5, 42 and 19, respectively.

Rookie wall, anyone?

In Week 8, Jeudy faced Los Angeles in Denver and landed four of 10 targets for 73 yards. He caught passes from Drew Lock, so at least that remains the same. Denver has seen flashes of improved play from slot receiver K.J. Hamler of late, and Tim Patrick on the outside has played better than anyone could have rationally expected. We even saw a hint of life from tight end Noah Fant last week after a lengthy disappearing act.

Jeudy has just one game this year with more than five catches and only two with at least five. He has seven appearances with two or fewer grabs, and even when he was consistently playing better than he has of late, the rookie went over 75 yards just once. He has scored twice on the year (Week 4 at NYJ, Week 9 at ATL).

The Chargers have been among the worst teams at getting to the quarterback in 2020, and that theme has continued into the late portion of the season, as well as at home. Denver’s ability to keep Lock clean is absolutely critical in Jeudy having success. So is establishing a running game, because the more often LA crowds the box to slow former Charger Melvin Gordon, or RB Phillip Lindsay, the better the odds are Jeudy will face isolated attention or a breakdown in coverage.

Over the course of 2020, Los Angeles has been among the worst matchups for a receiver in PPR scoring. In fact, only KC and the other LA team have been stingier. This is the worst matchup for receptions, but a touchdown allowed per game, on average, helps improve the outlook.

None of those numbers should get anyone excited about playing Jeudy. A closer inspection of recent trends may persuade some brave souls out in fantasy land. Since Week 10, Los Angeles has maintained its grasp on being the worst opponent to face for racking up volume, which hasn’t been Jeudy’s strength anyway, and no team has given up a higher frequency for scoring by wideouts. One in every 7.8 catches has found paydirt in the last five weeks, or six in four games, covering 47 grabs. It’s almost like LA sought out to do the opposite of the old “bend but don’t break” defensive mantra. The yardage (131.8) permitted hasn’t been in Jeudy’s favor, though. Despite this being the worst opponent for reception volume, 18 times a receiver has produced at least 10 PPR points in 2020 vs. the Chargers.

Intangible to considerations: Divisional rivals know each other inside and out, and it can cut both ways. It promotes creative playcalling on offense, which forces defenses to react to something it may not see as a likely play design, and it also can lead a lot of “feeling each other out” as the two sides expect the unexpected early in contests.

This element works in Jeudy’s favor vs. a defense that has given up the highest PPR points per catch while also allowing the fewest catches. In other words, the Chargers help increase efficiency by giving up touchdowns in their own territory. Jeudy doesn’t have to do much, but what he must be is efficient with his touches.

My projection: 4 receptions, 62 yards, 1 TD (16.2 PPR fantasy points)

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Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 16

Will this rookie deliver the fantasy football goods in a rematch vs. a divisional rival?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

For as good as it feels to get one right, it’s time to move on to Week 16 and make it two in a row.

WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Rookie wall, anyone?

My projection: 4 receptions, 62 yards, 1 TD (16.2 PPR fantasy points)

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Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 16

Will this rookie deliver the fantasy football goods in a rematch vs. a divisional rival?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

For as good as it feels to get one right, it’s time to move on to Week 16 and make it two in a row.

WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Rookie wall, anyone?

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My projection: 4 receptions, 62 yards, 1 TD (16.2 PPR fantasy points)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 15

Will this Eagle fly high for fantasy football owners in Week 15?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 15

Tracking my predictions: 4-9-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Seven straight wrong picks … put me out of my misery. Last week’s was the icing on the cake, because my selection, Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard vs. Dallas Cowboys, fumbled for the first time in 830 carries — the longest active streak in the NFL — and was benched. He finished with three carries, three catches and 5.3 PPR points.

Barf.

Okay, moving on, because what else can one do after such a situation?! The next choice isn’t going to be for the faint of heart, and it’s probably not going to apply to many people in the fantasy football playoffs. It may be best reserved for those in two-quarterback leagues or select DFS action.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts at Arizona Cardinals

The Eagles turned over the keys to rookie Jalen Hurts last week, and he acquitted himself nicely vs. the New Orleans Saints. While most of the damage from a fantasy perspective came on the ground, he wasn’t entirely dreadful as a passer, and that’s about all one could hope for when surveying what is the Philly offense right now.

Hurts finished the 24-21 win with 17-for-30 passing (56.7 percent), 167 yards, one touchdown throw, and no interceptions. As mentioned, his ground work (18-106-0) is what paved the way for a 23-point showing in traditional fantasy scoring.

A few takeaways that apply to the upcoming matchup: Hurts is not afraid to throw the ball vs. NFL coverage. His mobility was a boost, given the state of this offensive line, and he limited his mistakes to one fumble — hardly an egregious error considering he was sandwiched on the play.

WR Alshon Jeffery returned to the end zone, albeit on his only catch, but it is at least encouraging for a receiving corps that is starving for playmakers. Perhaps we’ll see Zach Ertz take a step in the right direction to look more like himself after a couple of weeks of substandard results since returning from an ankle sprain.

Finally, Hurts’ athleticism creates mismatch and decoy scenarios. The explosiveness of Miles Sanders was on full display — due, in part, to the defensive attention spent to spy on Hurts. It’s not something that necessarily pays off immediately, but repeated fakes, misdirections and setup plays put defenders on their heels, which eventually will create a huge mistake that benefits Hurts.

Arizona has given up five performances in the last seven games with at least 22.1 fantasy points and as many as 39.8. The two lowly efforts came from passing powerhouses Daniel Jones and Cam Newton. In two of those outings, Russell Wilson ran for a total of 126 yards on 16 carries. Newton rushed nine times for 46 yards, and Jared Goff plunged into the end zone in Week 13.

The Cardinals have regressed in recent weeks vs. the running back position. This matters because Sanders finding success on the ground opens the door for bootlegs and read-option plays for Hurts to find room of his own. Wide receivers have made enough noise to give even this lowly cast in Philadelphia a slight boost.

The game plan is likely to keep Kyler Murray off of the field. That means a bunch of running and controlling the clock. Don’t expect huge plays without there being either a breakdown in coverage or simply a spectacular display of athleticism.

However, this also works both ways in Hurts’ favor.

Let’s say the Cardinals jump out to an early lead, the rookie will be thrown into the fire as a passer and could do some damage with volume. That’s not what one should prefer to see as it likely to lead to more mistakes. The goal here is seeing Hurts maximize his efficiency as a passer and make critical plays with his legs.

My projection: 205 passing yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT, 65 rushing yards, 1 TD (29.75 fantasy points)

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