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The top risers and fallers heading into Week 12.
For those who had Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell in their lineups last Sunday, good for you. In the history of the NFL – regular season and postseason – nobody else had made six field goals in a game more than twice. On Sunday, Boswell did it for the fourth time.
Never underestimate kickers in your lineup, especially with the potential of bad weather coming during the fantasy playoffs.
The top risers and fallers heading into Week 12.
The NFL gets accused of stomping on the holidays and this year that argument holds a lot of water – as both Thanksgiving and Christmas will become all-NFL-all-the-time casualties.
There was a time when Thanksgiving meant the Detroit Lions early, the Dallas Cowboys late and men in stretch pants sleeping on the couch at 7 p.m. Now, there are three Thanksgiving Day games, the first “Black Friday” game, and the slate on Sunday and Monday. Christmas falls on a Monday this year, and the NFL has doubled down.
In Week 16, there will be a game on Thursday, two on Saturday, the regular slate on Sunday and three on Christmas Day. While this is a little unseemly for having family get-togethers with hardcore fans in the house, it creates a unique scenario in which if you are heavily invested (or your opponent is) in early games, you can make chess-like roster moves during the fantasy playoffs at multiple times to bolster your roster and swing for the fences. Nobody is complaining yet. Wait until someone gets greased because of Monday roster change that helped negate a quarterback. Happy holidays, everybody.
This Colt has a chance to gallop, but he may buck you right off in the process.
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
Tracking my predictions: 3-7-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
Well, well, well … what do you know, I finally returned to the winner’s circle last week with the promotion of New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones in this space. I projected 21-for-29, 215 yards, 1 TD pass, 55 rushing yards, 1 TD (26.25 fantasy points), and he finished with a line of 27-for-44, 341 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 50 rushing yards, and 1 TD (28.64 points).
Not. Too. Shabby.
This one won’t be as palatable with 26 remaining teams yet to play. What makes Pierce an even riskier play is his lack of production in the last five games. Not only did he struggle to generate fantasy football production in that window, Pierce had barely been in the game plan. In that time frame, we’ve seen Parris Campbell emerge as the safer as well as more prolific option from this receiving corps.
Suffice it to say, Pierce is about as risky as they come and appears to have run face first into the rookie wall without wearing his helmet.
Last week, we witnessed a potential reversal of fortunes when Matt Ryan sent 38.1 percent of the positional targets the rookie’s way. The results were paltry as Pierce landed just three of the looks for a mere 28 yards, which is forgivable vs. a tough Philadelphia secondary. Pierce drew only nine targets over the prior three games combined and landed just four.
On the year, prior to Ryan’s benching, Pierce was consistently involved and rather productive, thanks to his vertical traits. Those skills will come in handy vs. a Steelers defense that has allowed the second-highest average yards per reception (15.6) in the last five weeks. Only three teams have given up a higher efficiency rating for fantasy points generated per catch. The 15th-most receptions a game have produced the fifth-most aerial yards, and a TD every 9.8 grabs is the seventh-highest frequency. Pierce has averaged 15.1 yards per grab in 2022, and he has managed to eclipse that mark in five contests.
On the year, this matchup 25.9 percent better than the league average for PPR points allowed, and this figure jumps to 34.9 percent in formats that don’t reward receptions. Eleven wideouts have scored 10 or more fantasy points — and that’s in standard scoring. Add five more such efforts to the list in PPR leagues.
Running back Jonathan Taylor may have a difficult time finding success on the ground, and that bodes well for Indy being forced to pass more than usual.
If you’re averse to taking wild risks and likely committing unforced errors, you’ll find safer options with similar upside. For gamers who are feeling extra frisky or, better yet, playing in DFS showdown contests, Pierce is an intriguing risk-reward flier.
My projection: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD (16.8 PPR fantasy points)
Forecasting where all of the notable players net out over the remainder of the season.
These fantasy football rankings track a player’s value for the remainder of the season and are intended to be used as a tool, not necessarily a definitive guide to player valuation.
The scoring system is performance PPR. There is no exact science behind season-long rankings, considering all of the variables and situational uncertainties at work.
Rankings key:
UP/DN is trending up or down from week’s ranking.
NR means the player wasn’t ranked last week.
UP/DN numbering shows where the player was ranked the prior week.
Is a career day ahead for this bucking Bronco?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
Tracking my predictions: 4-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury
Not gonna lie, that one felt good … last week, my selection of New Orleans Saints tight end Adam Trautman was a right on the mark. But, alas, he left the game with a sprained knee and will miss up to six weeks. It’s a bummer, since he was beginning to get on track after a slow start following a late-summer ankle injury.
My projection of 5-56-1 against the Philadelphia Eagles was 101.2 percent accurate as the second-year tight end finished with five grabs, 58 yards, and an 18-yard touchdown.
Some may look at Williams as being too widely utilized and useful to be considered a gamble. While I concede there is some truth to those sentiments, and I debated whether that alone was enough reason to turn in a different direction, the true gamble here to me is about how many times he touches the ball and not so much what he does with them.
In the two games prior to going on bye in Week 11, Denver fed their rookie talent an average of 14 utilizations. More specifically, Williams operated as follows in the last six games:
Week 5 at PIT (27-19 loss): 8-61-0 rushing, 3-25-0 on 3 targets
Week 6 vs. LV (34-24 loss): 11-53-0 rushing, 3-15-0 on 3 targets
Week 7 at CLE (17-14 loss): 4-20-0 rushing, 6-32-1 on 7 targets
Week 8 vs. WAS (17-10 win): 9-35-0 rushing, 2-13-0 on 4 targets
Week 9 at DAL (30-16 win): 17-111-0 rushing, 0-0-0 on 0 targets
Week 10 vs. PHI (30-13 loss): 8-48-0 rushing, 2-1-0 on 3 targets
The best outing came during a convincing win over Dallas, and the other win in that window saw Williams utilized 13 times against a tough defensive front. The workload over that time frame averages to 9.5 carries, 54.7 yards, 3.3 targets, 2.7 receptions, and 14.3 yards. None of the 57 attempts, one of 16 grabs went into the end zone, and the rookie averaged 10.6 PPR points over that period of time.
Not terrible, not great, but far from explosive and not in line with Williams’ talent level. The main reason? Melvin Gordon. He has a touchdown in four straight and five overall in that span. The veteran was utilized more than Williams in four of those six games.
Coming out of the bye, will Gordon see fewer touches vs. his former employer? Probably not. But, this matchup is good enough to make the case for both backs having fantasy relevance. It wouldn’t be a total shock if the Broncos started to limit Gordon’s touches for losing two fumbles in the three games prior to going on break. The one in Week 10 was costly.
The latter point is probably somewhat wishful thinking on my part. I fully expect Denver to give Gordon every chance to stick it to the Chargers. However, I have little confidence he can touch the ball 12-15 times without fumbling as he isn’t known for putting the ball on the ground, so it’s likely going to be in his head.
This one, though, is mostly predicated on how the Broncos will choose to attack. Their goal should be keeping LA’s offense on the sidelines as much as humanly possible, and the best way to do that is by slowing the pace of the game through pounding the rock. Denver is stout enough in the secondary to likely prevent this from getting out of hand, although preventing Austin Ekeler from going hog wild is a totally different scenario. Denver ranks poorly of late vs. PPR RBs and has given up the most yards per game on the ground since Week 6.
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Williams has been quite efficient, but his lack of scoring prowess has been his primary downfall in fantasy. The Chargers have granted 13 rushing scores on the year to the position, plus one through the air, and five times in the past four games a back has found the end zone, coming at the sixth-highest frequency.
On the season, LA has surrendered 13.9 percent more fantasy points per game than average, and seven backs have at least 16.9 points in PPR scoring. Three backfields found double-digit point-per-reception success with two rushers In Week 5, Cleveland backs went for 25.9 and 24.0 points apiece between Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, respectively. Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard managed 40.7 points combined. In both instances, the backup, or 1b, runner actually scored the most points. Now, that’s not to suggest it’s a rule or anything of the sort, but it’s another encouraging piece to the puzzle.
So the biggest question here is just how many touches can we expect for Williams? He has his most carries in all but one game in which Denver won, and they have some upside for an upset here coming off the bye, which allowed time to install wrinkles in the new offense. A safe number for combined touches for Williams is 12. A ceiling is something near 18-20.
Let’s shoot for 15 and presume he catches three or fewer passes as has been the case in all but one game this year. This brings us to 12 carries. His average of 5.0 yards per tote, in conjunction with the 4.7 YPC the Bolts have yielded, brings about something in the neighborhood of 60-65 yards being a reasonable figure. Eighteen yards is a fair number through the air based on his and LA’s metrics, which brings us to 78-83 offensive yards.
Add in a touchdown and we have a 17.3-point ceiling in PPR scoring based on little more than what each party has already accomplished. That doesn’t factor in injury issues along the front seven for the Chargers, nor does it account for the benefit of Denver having a bye week to prepare.
My projection: 70 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 31 receiving yards, 1 offensive TD (19.1 PPR fantasy points)
Check out where your roster options fit into our Week 12 start/bench tiers.
Player analysis and projections can be found in our Start/Bench Tool customized to your myHuddle league scoring and rosters. All player listings by groups are in no particular order.
Key: Upgrade / Downgrade
Forecasting where all of the notable players net out over the remainder of the season.
These fantasy football rankings track a player’s value for the remainder of the season and are intended to be used as a tool, not necessarily a definitive guide to player valuation.
The scoring system is performance PPR. There is no exact science behind season-long rankings, considering all of the variables and situational uncertainties at work.
Rankings key:
UP/DN is trending up or down from week’s ranking.
NR means the player wasn’t ranked last week.
UP/DN numbering shows where the player was ranked the prior week.
NFL.com fantasy football expert Michael Fabiano says sit Jameis Winston this week against the Atlanta Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston enters Sunday’s Week 12 showdown with the Atlanta Falcons having thrown 18 interceptions on the year, matching his career-high for a season.
With Tampa Bay at 3-7 and his future with the team in doubt, Winston will need to play near-perfect football from here on out to make his final case to the team that he deserves a new deal. But, given how well the Falcons defense has been playing of late, it might be hard to get back on track against Atlanta.
Fantasy expert Michael Fabiano foresees trouble for Winston on Sunday and advises any fantasy owners with the Bucs QB on their roster to sit him.
Here’s Fabs’ reasoning:
“Winston is coming off a four-interception game against the Saints, and now he’s tasked with facing maybe the hottest defense in the league when the Bucs visit the Falcons. In their last two games, Atlanta has put up 11 sacks, four interceptions and held Drew Brees to fewer than 12 fantasy points. I’d beware of Winston this week.”
You’d be hard-pressed to find many people jumping at the chance to start Winston. The guy can put up big yardage, that’s for sure, but his turnover problems have been his ultimate downfall.
For what it’s worth, Fabiano says you should start Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan against the Buccaneers.
“Ryan has put up a couple of stinkers in a row, but you have to like this week’s matchup against the Buccaneers. Their defense has surrendered four straight top-10 quarterback performances, and the position has averaged a 102.1 passer rating and more than 23 fantasy points per game. Ryan is a good bet to post top-10 totals this week.”
I feel like Tampa Bay’s defense is poised for a breakout game, much like the Falcons had against the Carolina Panthers last week, when their defense had five sacks and four interceptions. I’m not saying the Bucs do the same to the Falcons, but as Ndamukong Suh said on Instagram earlier this week, beware the quiet man.
Fantasy football waiver wire targets for Week 12.
Last week in the NFL we saw more injuries pile up, more players come out of nowhere and even more surprising matchups across the board in fantasy football. By now, guys have either proven themselves to be reliable or their inconsistency has landed them on the bench or dropped altogether.
As trade deadlines come and go, the waiver wire continues to be a vital part of a playoff run in fantasy football.
With four teams on a bye (Cardinals, Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings), here are six waiver wire pickups for Week 12.
With Jordan Wilkins still out (ankle) and Marlon Mack suffering a broken hand in Indy’s 33-13 win against Jacksonville on Sunday, the Colts needed someone to step up big in the run game. Williams fit the bill.
He finished the day with 13 carries for 116 yards and also added a huge reception for 31 yards. With a short week before the Colts travel to Houston to face the Texans, the Colts do not have much time to get healthy. Williams and fellow back Nyheim Hines will carry the workload in the backfield for the time being.
