It is time once again to gobble up some bonus DFS action as we enter the Turkey Day slate. There is nothing better than stuffing your belly and then stuffing your wallet. Then you can go out the next morning and blow all that newly begotten wealth on Black Friday deals!
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
So, will Buffalo go home between Week 11 and Thanksgiving Day? The Lions haven’t played at Ford Field since Week 9, so the Bills will have actually spent more time in this stadium recently than the Motor City Kitties have.
On this slate, Josh Allen (QB1) has the best combination of arm strength and running ability, and he is no worse than second in surrounding talent on offense. Stack him with either Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis.
Jared Goff (QB4) doesn’t have the natural talent of Allen, but he does have an elite WR. He also is not afraid to throw the ball 40-plus times a game to keep up with a higher-octane offense. Buffalo’s passing defense is nowhere near as fierce as they were earlier this season, and I like Goff as a bargain-priced pivot here.
Detroit has no clue how to stop the run. It has been a battle to the bottom between them and Houston all year (with Cleveland and the Chargers making a late charge, too). Unfortunately for Buffalo, Devin Singletary (RB3) typically doesn’t get the workload needed to really take advantage of this. I still think he is the safest RB2 on the board. Nyheim Hines (RB12) hasn’t done anything since his arrival. He can be left to Showdown. James Cook (RB10), on the other hand, has seen his role continue to grow. He could be a nice flex play.
Buffalo isn’t great against the run, either. Jamaal Williams (RB4) has been a TD machine. He needs to be in consideration for your RB2 slot. D’Andre Swift (RB7) finally scored last week. He also had fewer touches and yards than Justin Jackson (RB12). Against a worse defense, I might advocate for one of them. Here, neither is more than a desperation flex play.
Detroit is just as bad against the pass as the run. WR1s in particular have posted huge games against them. This is why Stefon Diggs (WR1) gets the top spot on the slate. His price will be high, but he will be worth it. If you want to save some money use his running mate, Gabe Davis (WR5). Just know that Diggs is a much safer play. Isaiah McKenzie (WR13) also is in play as a WR3. Khalil Shakir (WR17) should probably be left to Showdown.
Since Week 7, Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR3) has nearly as many targets as all of the other WRs on Detroit’s active roster. This sets up nicely for him as it has been possession WRs that have done the most damage against Buffalo this season. DJ Chark Jr. (WR16) finally returned in Week 11. Everyone in attendance at your family’s dinner had as many catches and yards as he did. His presence creates more operating room for St. Brown, but Chark is still looking like a bust. Josh Reynolds (back – WR9) has missed a month with a back injury. When he was healthy, he was a reliable WR3. If he can finally return, I’d gladly play him in that spot. If Reynolds remains out, Kalif Raymond (WR14) could be a sneaky WR3 play. Tom Kennedy (WR20) is certainly a fake name, but that name is on the player list, so I have to at least rank him. You can leave him for Showdown.
Despite having multiple other weapons, Buffalo has kept Dawson Knox (TE3) involved all season. Like every other position, Detroit cannot seem to cover TEs, either. Knox at a discounted price might be a nice third leg to an Allen-Diggs stack.
Detroit had an elite TE and they traded him away. Now they have two guys who are just serviceable at best. At least the matchup isn’t awful. Brock Wright (TE7) and James Mitchell (TE8) probably should be ignored, but I have a sneaking feeling that one of them will score this week.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
This NFC East rivalry has a little extra gravy this week as these two teams battle for wild-card positioning behind division leader Philadelphia.
Daniel Jones (QB5) will have his work cut out for himself this week. Normally, I like him as a sleeper, but this time I’m not going to go out of my way to use him. That said, running QBs (including Jones in Week 3) have had some success against this defense, so he has that going for him.
As for Dallas, Dak Prescott (QB2) gets a solid but not spectacular matchup. Still, on a mediocre QB slate, his floor is higher than most of the rest. Stack him with CeeDee Lamb.
Saquon Barkley (RB1) doesn’t have the cream-puff matchups that he has faced the last two weeks. Still, it is always easier to run against Dallas, than throw against them. Matt Breida (RB13) scored last week, but he remains strictly a handcuff. Barring an injury, he has zero value this week.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB5) and Tony Pollard (RB6) are both healthy. Unfortunately, this means a split backfield and split production. If either was alone this week, they would be a top-three option. Still, each can be used as an RB2 or flex play. Elliott has scored in seven of the last eight games he has played against the Giants, so I’ll give him a small edge. Malik Davis (RB15) returns to irrelevancy with both Pollard and Zeke healthy.
The Giants’ WR room was maligned most of the year. Now, they are back to having only one solid option in Darius Slayton (WR10) as Wan’Dale Robinson (ACL) is out for the year. When he has played, Slayton has been reliable this year. Unfortunately, he will likely be saddled by Trevon Diggs. I guess Slayton still deserves WR3 consideration. The team also has Kenny Golladay (WR20). He used to be reliable. Now, it is a victory when he gets more than one target in a game. Bigger-bodied outside WRs have actually fared well against Dallas this season, so he could be a deep dart throw at flex. That said, I’d rather leave him to Showdown. With Robinson out, Richie James (knee – WR16) will start in the slot. He could also be a WR3 option.
CeeDee Lamb (WR4) is one of the few WR1 pivots that I like from Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson. Lamb actually has more targets than the rest of the Cowboys’ WR room combined. It helped that Michael Gallup (WR8) missed the start of the season. Gallup gets a lot of volume, but his final stat line leaves a lot to be desired. He is best left as a WR3. Noah Brown (WR12) has disappeared since the return of Gallup. In a better spot, I would consider him. This isn’t that spot.
Daniel Bellinger (eye – TE11) has missed a month now. He promised that he would return at some point this season. I don’t think it will be this week. If he plays, bump him up to TE5. Assuming Bellinger remains out, Tanner Hudson (TE6) or Lawrence Cager (WR23/TE9) could be a nice sleeper in a double-TE lineup.
Dalton Schultz (TE2) is a great option this week as the Giants have been a sieve of late against the position. Plus, Schultz has been a top-six TE since returning from his early-season injury. I highly recommend using both Schultz and T.J. Hockenson in a double-TE lineup.
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings
I love the story of Thanksgiving. Especially the part where the American revolutionaries traveled westward to do battle with the Norse boatsmen. If for some crazy reason you are still hungry when this game comes on, make sure to watch my Twitter feed for our #Week12 #MatchupMeal featuring New England cranberry goat cheese stuffed Swedish meatball Juicy Lucys and red flannel hash.
Mac Jones (QB6) is the thanksgiving QB turkey this week. The matchup is actually positive, but he just lacks the talent. If you want to get crazy build a stack with him and Jakobi Meyers and then fall asleep early so you don’t have to watch that money go up in smoke.
Coming into this season, Kirk Cousins (QB3) was maligned for his failures in primetime. He has played admirably this season to erase some of that trend, but with his LT, Christian Darrisaw, doubtful with a concussion, he is in trouble here. Certainly, Kirk has the weapons, but he needs time to get the ball to those weapons. If Darrisaw plays, I will use Cousins. Otherwise, I will pass.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB8) and Damien Harris (RB9) were back to splitting the load last week. The Vikes are actually solid against the run, so neither should be more than an RB2 dart throw. I’d lean toward Stevenson since Minnesota has historically struggled with pass-catching backs.
The Vikings have to get their running game going this week. Dalvin Cook (RB2) had scored in five straight games prior to getting the game scripted away from him in last week’s contest. Unfortunately, the Patriots are neutral, at worst, against the run. Alexander Mattison (RB11) is purely a handcuff these days. He can be left to Showdown contests.
There are a lot of WRs in the room for the Patriots, but very few you can truly trust. Jakobi Meyers (WR6) is worth a WR2 slot. He has been the one consistent asset all year. DeVante Parker (WR11) came back from injury in Week 11 and didn’t do much. I don’t love the matchup for him. Nelson Agholor (WR21) has had six targets since Week 4. Still, he is one of the types of WRs that Minnesota historically struggles with. Tyquan Thornton (WR18) has seen more targets, but he has done just as little with them. Either of these two could be a punt WR3 at best. Kendrick Bourne (WR22) has done nothing over the last two months. He can be ignored.
Opposing WR1s have done little versus New England over the last month. That said, they haven’t faced anyone like Justin Jefferson (WR2) recently. The few higher-end WR1s they faced earlier this year did just fine against this defense. Jefferson will have a great game here, and he deserves WR1 consideration. Adam Thielen (WR7) had seven or more targets in eight straight contests before Week 11. The numbers haven’t been great, but he can be used as a WR2. K.J. Osborn (WR13) was featured in Week 10 and then he was ignored last week. The matchup isn’t strong enough to consider him as anything more than a punt play at WR3.
Jonnu Smith (TE4) has outproduced Hunter Henry (TE5) in recent weeks. I’d consider a pivot with either, but there is no clear advantage to using them considering the price differences aren’t huge between them and the highest-priced guys.
Quality TEs have feasted on New England this season. T.J. Hockenson (TE1) definitely qualifies in that category. Ironically, he was held to just 1-6-0 versus New England back in Week 4 when he was still with Detroit. That is more of a testament to the Detroit offense than Hockenson. I like him for 6-70-1 here. Johnny Mundt (TE10) can be ignored.
The Main Slate: recommended DFS lineups
DK Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($8k), RB Devin Singletary ($5.7k), RB Jamaal Williams ($5.9k), WR Stefon Diggs ($8k), WR Jakobi Meyers ($5.1k), WR Kalif Raymond ($4.1k), TE Dawson Knox ($3.5k), FLEX Tony Pollard ($6.6k), DST New England Patriots ($3k)
FD Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($9.5k), RB Devin Singletary ($6.9k), RB Jamaal Williams ($7.1k), WR Stefon Diggs ($9.3k), WR Michael Gallup ($5.7k), WR Kalif Raymond ($5.5k), TE Dawson Knox ($5.5k), FLEX T.J. Hockenson ($6.3k), DST New England Patriots ($4.2k)
FB Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($7.4k), RB Saquon Barkley ($7.2k), RB Jamaal Williams ($5.6k), WR Stefon Diggs ($7.2k), WR Michael Gallup ($4.1k), WR K.J. Osborn ($3.3k), TE Dawson Knox ($3.7k), FLEX Tony Pollard ($6.3k), FLEX Devin Singletary ($5.2k)
Quarterback
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $8,000 | $9,500 |
| Dak Prescott | $6,200 | $8,000 |
| Kirk Cousins | $5,600 | $7,400 |
| Daniel Jones | $5,500 | $7,500 |
| Jared Goff | $5,200 | $6,900 |
| Mac Jones | $5,100 | $6,500 |
Weekly strategy – Josh Allen and Dak Prescott are the safest plays. Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins are the only two to fully fade.
Pay to Play
Josh Allen, Bills @ DET ($8,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
Best offense on the slate versus the worst defense on the slate. Simply put, get Allen in there and stack him with as many players as you can fit under the cap.
Stay Away
Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. NE ($5,600 DK, $7,400 FD) Cousins is a decent starting QB and he has some elite weapons, but if he doesn’t have Christian Darrisaw blocking his blindside, he is in a world of trouble. The Patriots’ edge rushers have to be licking their chops while watching footage from last week’s game.
Value Play
Jared Goff, Lions vs. BUF ($5,200 DK, $6,900 FD)
Detroit will be playing from behind, so expect Goff to be forced to throw the ball a ton. Obviously, this means cue up the stacks with Amon-Ra St. Brown and perhaps Kalif Raymond or Josh Reynolds (back) if he can return from his injury.
Running Back
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | $8,000 | $8,800 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,400 | $7,800 |
| Tony Pollard | $6,600 | $8,500 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $6,400 | $7,200 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,900 | $7,100 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $5,800 | $7,000 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,700 | $6,900 |
| D’Andre Swift | $5,600 | $6,200 |
| Damien Harris | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Alexander Mattison | $4,800 | $5,000 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,500 | $4,900 |
| James Cook | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Matt Breida | $4,300 | $5,100 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,100 | $5,200 |
Weekly strategy – Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook are both usable at RB1. If you can afford them. That said, I’m likely fading both due to their salaries. I’d prefer to pivot with two or three of this group: Jamaal Williams, one of the Patriots, Devin Singletary, or one of the Cowboys.
Pay to Play
Saquon Barkley, Giants @ DAL ($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD)
I am going to have a hard time fitting Barkley under my cap, but he deserves to be there. He posted 126 total yards and a score in their earlier matchup. Plus, Dallas has allowed some big RB lines over the last month or so. I’m just scared of a repeat of last week’s fiasco versus Detroit where Daniel Jones and Matt Breida vultured Barkley’s TDs.
Stay Away
D’Andre Swift, Lions vs. BUF ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD)
Buffalo isn’t very good against the run, but Swift actually played less than Justin Jackson last week. On a small slate, you can’t have this big of a goose egg risk in your lineup.
Value Play
Devin Singletary, Bills @ DET ($5,700 DK, $6,900 FD)
Despite slowing down Saquon Barkley last week, Detroit continues to be an RB whipping boy. James Cook could eat into some of Singletary’s touches again, but if Devin is fed like last week, he will score for a third-straight week.
Wide Receiver
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $8,200 | $8,600 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,000 | $9,300 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,100 | $7,900 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $6,600 | $7,600 |
| Gabe Davis | $5,300 | $7,200 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,000 | $6,400 |
| Adam Thielen | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| Michael Gallup | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Josh Reynolds | $4,200 | $5,600 |
| Kalif Raymond | $4,100 | $5,500 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| DeVante Parker | $3,900 | $5,400 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $3,800 | $5,000 |
| Kenny Golladay | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| K.J. Osborn | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| Noah Brown | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| Lawrence Cager | N/A | $4,800 |
| Richie James | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| Tyquan Thornton | $3,300 | $5,300 |
| Nelson Agholor | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| Khalil Shakir | $3,000 | $4,600 |
Weekly strategy – Your WR1 should be either Stefon Diggs or Justin Jefferson. You cannot afford both. Gabe Davis, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the WR1 pivot options. Use two of Darius Slayton, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Gallup, Kalif Raymond, or Adam Thielen as your WR2 and WR3. K.J. Osborn and Richie James are the only two possible punt play here.
Pay to Play
Stefon Diggs, Bills @ DET ($8,000 DK, $9,300 FD)
Diggs has scored and/or topped 90 yards in each of his last six games. Meanwhile, Detroit has allowed a big game by virtually every alpha WR to face them. You need either Diggs or Gabe Davis in your lineup, good luck getting both of them under the cap.
Stay Away
Justin Jefferson, Vikings vs. NE ($8,200 DK, $8,600 FD) The Patriots go out of their way to take out an opponent’s top weapon. Well, Jefferson is clearly the top option on this offense. I know Bill Belichick is adept at this strategy, and he has last week’s game to pull from.
Value Play
Kalif Raymond, Lions vs. BUF ($4,100 DK, $5,500 FD) or Josh Reynolds, Lions vs. BUF ($4,200, $5,600) This comes down to whether or not Reynolds (back) can play. If Reynolds is out once again, fire up Raymond. If Reynolds returns, fire up Reynolds. Both could have value as Buffalo is forced to deal with Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark Jr. on the outsides.
Tight End
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,000 | $6,300 |
| Dalton Schultz | $3,800 | $5,800 |
| Dawson Knox | $3,500 | $5,500 |
| Daniel Bellinger | $3,200 | $4,600 |
| Hunter Henry | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| Jonnu Smith | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| Brock Wright | $2,900 | $4,600 |
| James Mitchell | $2,700 | $4,200 |
| Lawrence Cager | $2,700 | N/A |
| Johnny Mundt | $2,700 | $4,200 |
| Tanner Hudson | $2,500 | $4,300 |
Weekly strategy – T.J. Hockenson is the safest play. I’d also consider Dalton Schultz or Dawson Knox.
Pay to Play
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings vs. NE ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD)
Since landing with the Vikings, Hockenson has been peppered with 28 targets in three games. That is the fifth-most targets in the league during this three-game stand. Meanwhile, the Patriots rank near the bottom in points allowed to the TE. I can do the math, and it adds up to this being the best TE play on the board.
Stay Away
Hunter Henry, Patriots @ MIN ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD)
Henry has begun to accrue fewer stats than Jonnu Smith. If I have to fade someone this week, it would be him.
Value Play
Dawson Knox, Bills @ DET ($3,500 DK, $5,500 FD)
Knox has shed his TD-dependent label and started to post reasonable counting stats. Against Detroit, he should be able to do both. I love Knox as the third leg of an Allen-Diggs stack. He can also be the second option in a double-TE lineup with Hockenson.