The Washington Nationals (46-54) continue their four-game series with the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies (50-50) Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Washington evened the series with a 6-4 win Tuesday after Philadelphia won Monday’s series opener 6-5.
Season series: Tied 5-5.
LHP Patrick Corbin is Washington’s projected starter. He is 6-9 with a 5.71 ERA (104 IP, 66 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 19 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K at the Baltimore Orioles Friday.
- Corbin beat Philly May 13 with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Washington’s 5-1 home win.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 2.93 FIP with a .250 batting average (BA), .301 wOBA, .316 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.4 K% and 86.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 197 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Zack Wheeler makes his 21st start for the Phillies. He is 8-5 with a 2.37 ERA (132 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9.
- Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 8 K against the Atlanta Braves Friday.
- Wheeler is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 19 H, 4 BB and 19 K in three starts against Washington this season.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 3.93 FIP with a .290 BA, .338 wOBA, .414 xSLG, 21.2 K% and 86.3 mph EV across 212 PA.
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Nationals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Phillies -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Nationals 4, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
I’m going to “fade the market” and slightly “LEAN” to the NATIONALS (+180) for a tiny wager since I like Washington’s run line so much so that I’ll sprinkle on the underdog’s money line.
According to Pregame.com, close to 90% of the cash is on the Phillies, which has steamed them up from the opening line of -175.
According to FanGraphs, Corbin’s highest game score of the season was his May 13 start against the Phillies where he had his best FIP (0.58), as well as his best swinging-strike percentage (17.6%) and hard-contact rate (17.6%).
Furthermore, most of Corbin’s pitching peripherals against active Phillies batters are better than Wheeler’s vs. current Nationals hitters and both have a large sample size in their head-to-head splits.
While Philly’s lineup is top-10 against left-handed pitching in wRC+ and wOBA, the Phillies are 24th in hard-contact rate vs. lefties but benefit the best BABIP in the majors (.324) in the split.
Finally, if Wheeler can’t go deep in Wednesday’s game then Washington will have its cracks at a Philly bullpen 19th in xFIP, 21st in SIERA, 26th in K-BB% and 25th in HR/9 in the second half.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the NATIONALS +1.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of Washington’s money line based on all of the previous analysis and because of the value in the run-and-a-half worth of insurance.
Also, Philly is just 10-22 ATS as a home favorite with a minus-1.6 run line margin and three of the last six head-to-head meetings were decided by a single run.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8 (-110) for 1 unit because Washington has played to the highest rate of Unders in division games (12-24-2 O/U against NL East opponents) and Philly isn’t far behind with a 23-28-1 O/U record in divisional games.
In addition, the Under cashed in five of Wheeler’s last six starts against NL East competition and in five of his last six home starts. The Nationals went Under the total in five of Corbin’s last six starts.
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