Tag: warren sharp

Can Commanders QB Jayden Daniels be a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2024?

Can Daniels be a top-10 fantasy QB as a rookie?

Six quarterbacks went in the first 12 picks of last month’s 2024 NFL draft, including the first three overall selections. Which of these quarterbacks will be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Much of that chatter revolves around No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, who landed with the Chicago Bears. That’s led some to overlook Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels — the No. 2 overall pick.

While the Bears did an outstanding job surrounding Williams with tons of skill position talent, Daniels also enters into an ideal situation.

Washington has Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler and rookies Ben Sinnott and Luke McCaffrey. Under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, the Commanders could be better than many realize, particularly because of Daniels’ dual-threat ability.

Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis ranked his top 40 fantasy quarterbacks for 2024, and Daniels came in at No. 10.

Sky-high ceiling in a climate that should force action. Daniels should run more than Caleb Williams and enters the NFL with a higher passing floor than Anthony Richardson. Daniels is my favorite quarterback at cost for fantasy right now based on his ceiling potential, and his floor is likely higher than credited due to his rushing ability and landing spot. Working with Kliff Kingsbury as a rookie in 2019, Kyler Murray was the QB8 in overall scoring and the QB12 in points per game.

Daniels was the highest-ranked rookie, three spots ahead of Williams. Williams isn’t as dynamic of a runner as Daniels. Dual-threat quarterbacks are often popular picks in fantasy drafts because they can impact the game in two ways. That’s why Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are all ranked ahead of Patrick Mahomes. While Mahomes is the best quarterback alive and a terrific athlete in his own right, he doesn’t use his legs as often as the other quarterbacks.

If Daniels finishes as a top-10-ranked fantasy quarterback, that would mean he put up good numbers in his rookie season.

Vikings got most value out of first three rounds per analytics

According to advanced analytics, no team got more value out of the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft than the Minnesota Vikings.

Coming out of the draft feeling like a winner is almost as much about feeling like you got great value out of your picks as the picks themselves, especially from a fan perspective. There are a lot of different feelings about the Minnesota Vikings’ draft performance, but according to the analytics, they had the best draft in the league through the first three rounds.

From statistics from Warren Sharp on X (formerly Twitter), the Vikings got more value out of their picks in the first three rounds than any other team in the league. Sharp calculated this by comparing the DCOE, or Draft Capital over Expected) comparing where a player was expected to be drafted and the capital expected to be used to get him versus the actual investment.

According to DCOE, the Vikings picks over the first three rounds, quarterback J.J. McCarthy and EDGE Dallas Turner, netted the Vikings a score of 3.6, more than a half-point better than the next closest team, their NFC North rivals Detroit.

Detractors of the Vikings’ draft would say that the team gave up too much in order to get McCarthy and Turner, but the data paints a different picture. That picture becomes even better when you consider the amount of salary cap space the Vikings are projected to have next season and the compensatory picks they could receive for the free agents they lost in 2024.

Detroit Lions’ 2024 selections earn ‘Most Valuable Draft Class’ honor

Detroit Lions’ 2024 selections earn ‘Most Valuable Draft Class’ honor in Warren Sharp’s analytical measurement

NFL analyst Warren Sharp considers the Detroit Lions’ 2024 NFL Draft selections to be the “Most Valuable Draft Class” based on a new metric.

Sharp has come up with Draft Capital Over Expectation (DCOE), a formula that compiles mock drafts and big boards from reputable sources in order to assign a “value” to each draft-eligible player.

The metric then considers what draft capital was used for those picks. DCOE assigns a value associated with the averaged expected spot for the player and compares it to the spot where the player was drafted. Used a second-round pick on a guy that most thought would go in the fifth? You spent a lot on something much less valuable. Conversely, spend a fifth-round pick on a first-round talent that fell farther than expected and you spent very little for a “more valuable” player.

According to Sharp’s DCOE, the Detroit Lions came out on top.

Despite losing significant value on the Giovanni Manu pick, the Lions were cited by Sharp for “receiving substantial value in four of their six picks.”

Those picks were Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw, Mekhi Wingo, and Christian Mahogany. Mahogany is considered the highest value pick of the class as he was frequently mocked to go in the top-100, but was selected at pick 210.

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Wingo was selected 80 places later than DCOE predicted, Rakestraw was 21 past the expected number, and Arnold went 24th while the model suggested 16th overall.

DCOE does claim that the Lions overreached for Sione Vaki by 19 picks and that Manu was expected to go undrafted, meaning an extra amount was lost due to the Lions trading up to the fourth round for him.

The Dolphins, Chiefs, Steelers, and Eagles subsequently followed Detroit as the most valuable draft classes.

 

Vikings had one of NFL’s most fast-paced offenses in 2022

According to Warren Sharp, the Minnesota Vikings had the fifth-fastest offense in terms of pace in 2022.

From pee-wee football on, one of the fundamentals of football is that you always play fast. If the assignment is wrong or there is a miscommunication, always play fast. When a team plays fast, usually good things happen.

That axiom doesn’t change at the highest level. In fact, it is even more beneficial. When an offense plays fast, that can force the opposing defense to keep the same personnel on the field. This makes it more difficult for defenses to match up with offenses and their personnel groupings.

And for the Minnesota Vikings, the data bears that out. According to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Vikings had the fifth-fastest-paced offense in the NFL in 2022. That analysis is based on data from the first three quarters of games, as the fourth quarter can skew the data.

In addition to creating matchup mismatches, keeping the same personnel on the field can also wear down a defense. Now, the Vikings’ success comes into play. Minnesota was able to pull off eight fourth-quarter comebacks last season. The pace could be a contributing factor. The Vikings were second in EPA/play in the fourth quarter last season and put up astronomical numbers when the game was on the line.

There is skepticism about whether the Vikings can duplicate last year’s offensive production, specifically in the fourth quarter. If they can apply pressure to defenses with a similar pace, that would be a step in the right direction. 

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Analytics pioneer Warren Sharp heavily criticizes Commanders’ Rivera

Would analytics have helped the Commanders win more games in 2022?

Warren Sharp confidently supplied listeners with several analytics markers/statistics Wednesday when he was a guest on the “Al Galdi Podcast.”

In his opening comments, Sharp expressed that last season (2022) could have been much better for Washington had they utilized some emphasis on analytics.

Sharp has graded out the Commanders offense quite lowly amongst the 32 NFL teams. On the other hand, Sharp graded the Commanders defense much higher.

However, Sharp rated Ron Rivera as 28th out of 32 NFL head coaches.

Here are some selected quotes from Sharp directed at Ron Rivera.

“To me, the whole tenure of Ron Rivera has gone massively sideways.”

“Ron Rivera is a defensive-minded head coach. The concern, in general, is a defensive coach wants his defense to look good because that is why he was brought to town. He will sacrifice some things offensively to help the defense look a little bit better potentially. What they tend to sacrifice is quarterbacks passing the ball and trying to score quickly.”

“In lieu of this, they try to control the football, run the football, have time of possession because they feel it drives the defense to give them their rest to play better. It is such an old-school process.”

“Look, last year Washington executed it to a T. They had the most time of possession of any football team since 2019. They controlled the ball over 33:00 minutes a game. But the offense averaged .57 points per minute. (Ranked 31 in NFL).”

“You guys ranked 32 in pass rate in the first half of games. You were running the ball a ton and these runs were abysmal. Early-down runs in the first half you guys were last in the NFL.”

“He (Rivera) hasn’t delivered a single winning season in three years. He still hasn’t figured out the quarterback position.”

There was much more from Sharp being critical of Washington’s 2022 offense in general and Ron Rivera in particular. See the above link to listen.

However, one thing my father taught me while still in grade school: “There are two sides to every coin.” In response to this criticism of Rivera and the 2022 Washington offense.

I think Ron Rivera might perhaps man up and say, “Yes, we stunk on offense most of the time in 2022. Yes, our quarterbacks struggled last season, and that is why we have two other quarterbacks this season.

Yes, we ran the ball too much, and we have gone out and hired Eric Bieniemy to provide an entirely new offensive philosophy for this season. It will be his offense, and we needed to do this.

Yes, our two starting guards really struggled last season (Andrew Norwell, Trai Turner). This is why neither of them are with us this season. We need to be able to run the ball more effectively inside. Also, we need to be more athletic in our line to be able to throw screens behind the line of scrimmage to make it easier on Sam Howell as much as we can.”

Rivera has defended his use of analytics over the years. New owner Josh Harris is known for his reliance on analytics as owner of the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils.

Patriots have hardest 2023 schedule of all teams, per analytics expert

The Patriots might have to overcome more than just their offense.

As if the New England Patriots needed more bad news.

NFL analytics expert Warren Sharp put together a strength of schedule rankings based on projected win totals from Las Vegas oddsmakers, and the Patriots are listed as the team with the hardest schedule in the 2023 season.

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering the massive leap of improvement in the AFC East division. The Buffalo Bills are perennial Super Bowl contenders, and the Miami Dolphins are knocking on the door. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are expected to pull off a trade for Green Bay Packers legendary quarterback Aaron Rodgers at some point.

The Patriots will have a hard enough time staying competitive in their own division.

They’re also expected to have run-ins with both teams that competed in Super Bowl LVII, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. It really will be an uphill climb for a Patriots team that has missed the playoffs in two of their last three seasons.

They’ll need a big draft or perhaps even a blockbuster trade (I’m looking at you DeAndre Hopkins and Jerry Jeudy) to put themselves in position to survive the hardest and most important season they’ve seen in quite some time.

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Analytics rate Kirk Cousins as one of NFL’s most accurate quarterbacks in 2021

There aren’t many more accurate passers than Kirk Cousins

It’s no secret that Kirk Cousins is a divisive quarterback. While he ranks highly in quite a few advanced metrics, there is still a cloud of doubt.

The main reason for that is his career record. Sitting at 59-59-2, Cousins is firmly a .500 quarterback over the entirety of his career and only two games over during his tenure with the Minnesota Vikings.

Warren Sharp dives into a lot of advanced metrics with one of them being what Cousins is best at: accuracy. Comparing him to the rest of the NFL, Sharp had Cousins as the fourth-most accurate quarterback in the NFL.

You can see in the chart that Sharp rated Cousins as accurate on 79% of his passes in 2021, with a very impressive 78% against man coverage, which ranked him second in the NFL.

Accuracy has never been in question with Cousins and will be important for the Vikings taking the next step.

Seahawks run game was dominant during preseason

The gains are especially evident on the flanks.

It’s only three games and they don’t really mean anything in the grand scheme of things. However, Seahawks fans looking for a silver lining after an 0-3 preseason record can at least bank on expecting a quality run game in 2022. Always a critical part of this team’s offensive identity, there’s more reason than usual to be especially bullish about the rushing attack this year.

As far as talent in the backfield, few teams can compete with the starpower at the top for Seattle – assuming Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker are eventually 100% healthy. Even if they’re not, Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas have just proven that the run game can still go strong even with backups leading the charge.

Some stats suggest this was the most-dominant rushing attack in the league during the preseason. This chart from Warren Sharp shows only scary-all-around Buffalo was remotely in Seattle’s league in running back efficiency and run blocking.

As far as the run blocking goes, this is a very encouraging sign. While this unit did finish the 2021 season heading in the right direction, offensive line coach Andy Dickerson deserves a lot of credit for the evident improvement across the board. The gains are especially evident on the flanks. Abe Lucas has gotten the headlines, but truth is the entire offensive tackle group did well in this department.

Let’s cross our fingers and hope this isn’t a preseason mirage. A very potent rushing attack and a surprisingly-tough defense is this team’s best hope of competing in 2022.

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Kirk Cousins isn’t the only quarterback sitting out this preseason

Is it a concern that Cousins hasn’t played in the preseason?

With a new system being put into place by head coach Kevin O’Connell, the question remains as to whether or not starting quarterback Kirk Cousins should play this preseason. According to Warren Sharp, Cousins is one of many starting quarterbacks that haven’t taken a snap this preseason.

Sharp listed off 14 different starters that hadn’t taken a snap this preseason with four of them, including Cousins, who missed at least one game due to injuries.

The positive aspect for the Minnesota Vikings is that Cousins has both worked in the wide zone system for most of his career and also had O’Connell as his quarterbacks coach back in 2017.

The other benefit is that the joint practices arguably offer more to the starters than preseason games and Cousins was a full participant after a short bout with COVID-19.

It isn’t a concern that Cousins hasn’t taken a snap in the preseason. He’s ready for the Packers.

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Are the Bills overrated in 2022 because last year’s schedule was easy?

Are the #Bills overrated in 2022 because last year’s schedule was easy?

The Buffalo Bills earned quite a bit of praise heading into the 2022 season. Buffalo has the best odds to win the Super Bowl, great odds for their quarterback to be NFL MVP, and they are in the best position to thrive over the next three years.

USA Today even predicts that the Bills will have the best record in the league by a wide margin:

It seems to be all smiles heading into the fall for the Buffalo Bills.

But, in the words of the legendary Lee Corso: Not so fast.

Football analytics expert Warren Sharp sees some reason to pump the brakes on a Super Bowl celebration. Examining some trends, he views the Bills path through the 2022 campaign might be a bit rockier than what many are predicting for the Bills.

Sharp also reveals that Buffalo’s 11-6 record might be hiding some inadequacies regarding the team.

Here is what Sharp has to say about Buffalo’s 2022 future:

It’s definitely an oppositional view from the widespread national attention that the Bills have garnered this year. However, it lends itself to a grounded and rational prediction of what the future holds for Buffalo.

After all, this is a team that found a way to lose to Urban Meyer last year. Anything is possible.

It also hints that maybe all of the betting options are not necessarily going to fall into the Bills’ favor.

In the case of Buffalo and Sharp, it’s one situation in which Bills will have to prove someone wrong…once again.

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