Tag: Utah State Football

Week 5 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

And we rolling, rolling, rolling! Mountain West football reaches week 5. And here’s how you can lose your money this week.

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Week 5 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 5

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 3-6-1 in week four and are 28-18-1 on the year. Our first week below .500. Time to pick it up.

Utah State @ UCONN (+4.5, O/U 51.5)

UConn is not a good team this year. They haven’t scored above 17 points in a game this year. Utah State isn’t that good either, but they’re better than UConn. Watch for the Aggies to struggle early, before pulling it out in the second half and running away with it.

Pick: Utah State -4.5

BOise State @ Memphis (-2.5, O/U 58.5)

Maybe this line is based on Boise’s history, but it feels disrespectful to Memphis. The only thing I can see is that Memphis has trouble defending the run. Boise is pretty good at that, but that’s pretty much all they can do. The Tigers pick up the win and cover before really starting conference play.

Pick: Memphis -2.5

Hawai’i @ UNLV (-10.5, O/U 58.5)

*Insert Nathan Fillion confused gif here* This is the trap game of the week in the Mountain West. Does the run and shoot get off and running? Or do the Rebels continue their hot start to the year? Who knows, but I expect Hawai’i to have something to say and keep this one close.

Pick: Hawai’i +10.5

New Mexico @ Wyoming (-13.5, O/U 40.5)

Craig Bohl has trouble with New Mexico. Since 2014 he is 4-5 against the Lobos. The Cowboys do not have an offense. They are ranked bottom 10 in the country in yards per game. The Lobos will have some spark after last weeks win at UMass and will cover against the Cowboys.

Pick: New Mexico +13.5

Utah Tech @ Colorado State (No Line)

CSU, end of story. Utah Tech has given up 36 points in every game this year and this is the perfect opportunity for the Rams to work out any issues before hitting conference play.

Pick: Colorado State

San Diego State @ Air Force (-10.5, O/U 42.5)

Is it time to bring back the Spaztecs nick name yet? San Diego State doesn’t really have an offense, which is nothing new. But they don’t really have the defense to keep them in games anymore. And now they run into the machine that is the Air Force triple option.

Pick: Air Force -10.5

Nevada @ #25 Fresno State (-24.5, O/U 50.5)

Fresno will probably hit the over by themselves again. I took the under last week after a disappointing performance against the Sun Devils. The Wolf Pack are not the Sun Devils. Expect the Bulldogs to run wild in this one.

Pick: Over

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Mountain West Football: 12 Statistics That Have Shaped The Season So Far

Ball doesn’t lie. Neither do these numbers and how they tell the story of Mountain West football in 2023 to this point.

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Mountain West Football: 12 Statistics That Have Shaped the Season So Far

Ball doesn’t lie. Neither do these numbers and how they tell the story of Mountain West football in 2023 to this point.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Which numbers have shaped the narrative to this point?

-53

It isn’t easy for any team to dig their way out of an early hole, but Utah State has taken that to a rare extreme so far in 2023. In four first quarters, the Aggies have been outscored 60-7, which equates to a -53 point differential. Such a lopsided result means that it isn’t likely you can pin the blame on any one party, though it isn’t a new problem for Blake Anderson’s Aggies, either: USU was outscored 101-62 in the first quarter last year, and 106-62 during their 2021 conference championship run.

The cruelest irony is that Utah State has outscored its opponents in each of the other three quarters to date. That also happens to be an achievement they managed when they won the Mountain West two years ago, so it bears watching whether they can finally overcome their propensity for sluggish starts and begin playing up to the standard of a title contender.

0

Zero can mean a lot of different things but, in this instance, it is to note that, despite a surprising change at quarterback, Colorado State’s pass catchers have been adept at not beating themselves in the young season. According to Pro Football Focus, three Rams — Tory Horton, Dallin Holker, and Louis Brown — have combined for 89 targets and zero drops in four games.

What does it mean? To start, it could suggest that Horton’s 10.1% drop rate a year ago was more an aberration than a trend since he now currently sports a respectable 5.8% career drop rate on 247 targets. Brown, meanwhile, is a small-sample hero who has yet to record a drop on 39 career targets and counting while Holker has so far maintained his solid production from last year at BYU; he didn’t have any drops in 2022, either.

As for the one name not mentioned here, Justus Ross-Simmons, bear in mind that though he has two drops on 23 targets, that rate was only 3.7% in 2022 so there probably isn’t much reason to panic. Collectively, this sure-handed group could make the Rams passing game more difficult for defensive coordinators to deal with in Mountain West play than anticipated.

4.31

Air Force’s defense has excelled to this point in the season, allowing a Mountain West-best 4.31 yards per play through their first four contests. For the sake of context, San Diego State led the conference in allowing 4.36 YPP during the shortened 2020 season, but if the season ended today, this would be the lowest average by anyone in the conference since TCU gave up just 4.16 YPP en route to their Rose Bowl victory in 2010.

When you narrow the focus to whittle away garbage time and the like, it remains a respectable average. According to Brian Fremeau, in three games against FBS competition, the Falcons have only allowed 4.67 defensive yards per play and rank 23rd in the country on that front, just ahead of Fresno State for the best mark in the Mountain West. Granted, some of that has to do with the level of competition they’ve faced so far — Sam Houston State is dead last among FBS teams in yards per play, for instance — but they’re doing what good teams should do against inferior opponents: Leave no doubt. For that, defensive coordinator Brian Knorr deserves a lot of kudos.

8.5

The New Mexico Lobos might have had the country’s most lifeless offense in 2022, but it’s amazing what a new accomplished quarterback can do. After averaging an FBS-worst 4.9 yards per attempt as a team last year, UNM quarterback Dylan Hopkins has averaged 8.5 yards on 97 pass attempts through four games, surpassed by only Air Force’s Zac Larrier in the early going this fall.

To really drive home the level of improvement, consider that the Lobos had just 15 passing plays on 255 total attempts (5.9%) that went for 20 or more yards in 2022. By contrast, Hopkins already has 13 such plays in only 97 attempts (13.4%). While there’s plenty to be done in Albuquerque, the big-ticket transfer has been as advertised thus far.

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Mountain West Football: Week 4 Winners And Losers

Running backs, Hawaii’s defense, and Utah State were among the weekend’s biggest winners and losers across Mountain West football.

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Mountain West Football: Week 4 Winners And Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 4 of the college football season?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

Blocked field goals. Second-half surges and collapses. Fumble recoveries for touchdowns in the end zone on offense and defense. Six different games decided by eight or fewer points. The week in Mountain West football had it all, making it a great couple days of high drama, but here are the winners and losers from Week 4.

Winners

1. Mountain West running backs

In spite of so many graduations and transfers over the last couple of off-seasons, talent at the running back position might be as deep as ever across the Mountain West if Week 4 was any indication. On Friday night, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty posted another Herculean performance in their 34-31 slugfest against San Diego State, accounting for 254 of the Broncos’ 409 yards of total offense with two touchdowns; Air Force, meanwhile, had two different players, Emmanuel Michel and John Lee Eldridge III, combine for 250 rushing yards and five touchdowns in a 45-20 rout over San Jose State.

The following day, New Mexico’s Jacory Croskey-Merritt and UNLV’s Jai’den “Jet” Thomas continued their strong runs throughout non-conference action, as well: Croskey-Merritt scored twice in the Lobos’ overtime road win at UMass, including the game-winner in overtime, while Thomas tallied four touchdowns and 100 rushing yards in the Rebels’ 45-28 road victory at UTEP. Wyoming’s Harrison Waylee continued to make an instant impact for the Cowboys, as well, ripping off a 75-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to help set up the team’s late rally over Appalachian State.

In all, it was a great day to get things done on the ground.

2. Boise State punter James Ferguson-Reynolds

Now, you might be thinking, “A punter, really?” Ferguson-Reynolds, however, has been the best specialist in the Mountain West so far throughout this young campaign and the Broncos might not have been able to outlast San Diego State without his contributions on Friday.

The Aussie averaged 50.8 yards per attempt and pinned the Aztecs inside the 20-yard line three times on five punts, helping the Broncos to a ten-yard advantage in average starting field position (Boise State: own 38; SDSU: own 28). After four games, Boise State also ranks eighth nationally with 44.35 net yards per punt, so for all of the early teeth-gnashing about the Broncos’ uneven early showings, special teams have been on point.

3. Hawaii’s defense

It wasn’t a perfect performance, but the Warriors found a way to solve New Mexico State in a 20-17 victory. One big component of that turnaround revolved around eliminating big plays on defense: After allowing eight explosive plays for 183 yards in the first two quarters, Hawaii gave up just three for 63 yards after halftime.

Jacob Yoro’s unit also engineered a similar turnaround on third downs, shutting down NMSU on three such second-half opportunities after enabling the Aggies to convert 5-of-7 tries early on. While it remains to be seen how much they can surprise in conference play, it’s encouraging to see signs of progress in year two under head coach Timmy Chang.

Losers

1. Utah State

Give credit to the Aggies for fighting back to make their 45-38 loss to James Madison as close as it was, but it didn’t have to be that way. Blake Anderson’s squad got pasted in the first half while falling behind 38-17, coughing up eight yards per play and 360 yards of total offense while allowing three sacks throughout the first thirty minutes. Then, the Aggies made one too many mistakes down the stretch, giving the ball away three times in the second half even as they forced four turnovers of their own.

That tale of two halves made for another frustrating Utah State performance, as the Aggies clearly have the talent to make waves and contend for a bowl bid but rarely seem inclined to play disciplined football for a whole four quarters. After four games, USU might be the Mountain West’s most mercurial team.

2. Nevada

For the second straight week, the Wolf Pack showed more sustained signs of life, but their 17-0 halftime lead against Texas State proved to be alarmingly short-lived as the Bobcats ripped off 35 unanswered points and rolled up 377 yards of total offense in the third and fourth quarters.

Offensive inefficiencies didn’t help matters, either. The Wolf Pack still can’t run the football if quarterback Brendon Lewis isn’t scrambling — both Sean Dollars and Ashton Hayes averaged fewer than four yards per carry — and they fumbled four times in the contest (the two they lost both led directly to Texas State touchdowns). Now the Mountain West’s lone winless team, it could be a long slog through the conference schedule if the offense can’t hang on to the ball and the defense can’t stop giving up big plays.

3. San Jose State’s run defense

The Spartans had few answers for the powerful Air Force running game on Friday, but while the Falcons averaging 5.48 yards per carry might look like business as usual, it may also be the latest evidence that this San Jose State team might have a fatal flaw on its hands.

While the difficulty of the schedule certainly plays a part, SJSU has now given up five or more yards per carry in three of their four games and a total of 13 rushing touchdowns. Five different Spartan defenders had at least ten tackles against Air Force, but they mustered only three tackles for loss on 73 rushing attempts and that’s also been in keeping with their overall performance so far: SJSU has just 3.25 TFLs per game against FBS opponents, which is less than half of what they averaged in 2022.

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James Madison’s coaches used a smartphone photo to try and convince refs to overturn a touchdown call

Bold strategy, James Madison.

During James Madison’s road bout with Utah State on Saturday, the Dukes coaching staff found a very creative (if unsuccessful) way to protest an Aggies touchdown call.

On a 4th-and-four in the second quarter, Utah State attempted a field goal that turned into a trick play where Aggies kicker Elliott Nimrod ran the ball in for a touchdown.

However, the James Madison coaches argued that Nimrod had stepped out of bounds before scoring.

As the referees debated if Nimrod had actually gotten into the end zone, one of the Dukes assistants got out his cell phone with a photo of what could be an Aggies step out of bounds and handed it to James Madison head coach Curt Cignetti.

Cignetti then tried to show the deliberating referees where he felt the kicker had indeed stepped out before the touchdown.

Well, the refs weren’t so happy about that as they quickly brushed off the photo of what James Madison felt should’ve sparked a turnover on downs.

Well, the referees confirmed the touchdown for Utah State, and all James Madison got out of the exchange was a hilarious video that shows just how much technology has changed in the past decade-plus.

If anything, NBA veteran Patrick Beverley will be proud that the James Madison coaches borrowed his strategy of finding impromptu photographic evidence of when you feel the officials have it wrong during the game.

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Week 4 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

Getting closer to conference play. We’re 25-12 on our bets for the season so far. Here’s what to look for in MW play this week.

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Week 4 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 4

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 6-5 in week two and are 25-12 on the year. Continuing to come back down to Earth. Lets see if we can’t pick it back up.

Boise State @ San Diego State (+6.5, O/U 45.5)

Boise State is average. San Diego State is meh. Maybe once they both get to conference play, they’ll pick it up. I have more faith in Boise than I do the Aztecs even though this is in San Diego. The Aztecs haven’t inspired much confidence in them so far this season. Take the Broncos to cover.

Pick: Boise State -6.5

Air Force @ San Jose State (+5.5, O/U 46.5)

San Jose State lost on a pick six. Air Force looks to be a team even with replacing their skill positions. The Falcons are in the driver’s seat for a MW Championship berth at this moment. The Spartans seem like a team to play spoiler. Air Force covers on the road.

Pick: Air Force -5.5

New Mexico @ Massachusetts (-3.5, O/U 50.5)

If UMass wins, they get to claim New Mexico as a part of Massachusetts. They already beat New Mexico State earlier this season and now they get to play the Lobos who are coming off a loss to the Aggies in the Rio Grande Rivalry. Let down game is here, Minutemen cover.

Pick: UMass -3.5

Colorado State @ Middle Tennessee (-2.5, O/U 51.5)

Speaking of let down games, the Rams head to Tennessee after giving Deion Sanders and Co all they could handle. The Blue Raiders are coming off a victory and have a shot to put an arrow in CSU’s heart. CSU seems to have turn a corner and they look to be able to keep it up. Take the Rams outright.

Pick: Colorado State ML

Appalachian State @ Wyoming (-2.5, O/U 42.5)

If this was in North Carolina, I’d be taking App State. But since this is at altitude, I don’t want to touch the spread. The total seems low here. App State has had some high scoring games this season. And curiously, so have the Cowboys. The Texas game being the only one to be under the total here.

Pick: Over

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Week 3 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

We got some conference action plus more chances for a ranked upset. Here’s how the MW shakes out in Week 3.

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Week 3 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 3

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 7-4 in week two and are 19-7 on the year. Slowly coming back down to earth. Let’s see if we can’t reverse the trend this week.

Utah State @ Air Force (-9.5, O/U 46.5)

The over in an academy game? Yes. This matchup has gone over the 46 points mark in every matchup bar one. And that one was a 42 point total. Air Force gets their first true defensive test of the year. Utah State meanwhile gets a chance to show everyone they are for real.

Pick: Over

North Dakota @ Boise State (No Line)

It’s the start of the Boise State revenge tour. The Broncos have looked oddly pedestrian the first two weeks of the year. North Dakota is running into a potential buzzsaw. Or we could see North Dakota give Boise State a scare. Doubtful, but anything is possible.

Pick: Boise State

San Diego state @ #16 Oregon sTate (-24.5, O/U 48.5)

There looked to be good things coming for the Aztecs this year. They thought they had found their QB in Jalen Mayden, but the San Diego State offense hasn’t looked as good as advertised. The defense hasn’t been great either, though it has kept them in games. The Beavers are looking to add another check mark to their resume.

Pick: Over

Vanderbilt @ UNLV (+4.5, O/U 59.5)

This is the trap game of the week for the Mountain West. We don’t actually know what the Rebels are going to bring to the table this season. And Vanderbilt’s performance against Hawai’i doesn’t inspire confidence in them to cover either. Under all the way.

Pick: Under

San Jose State @ Toldeo (-7.5, O/U 57.5)

I don’t know man. This just feel disrespectful to the Spartans. Yeah, Toldeo barely lost to Illinois, but Illinois laid an egg against Kansas. San Jose State has had to run through two Pac-12 schools that are on one so far this year. This should be a better indicator of where they stand and the cover seems real.

Pick: San Jose State +7.5

Wyoming @ #4 Texas (-29.5, O/U 49.5)

Whelp, good luck Wyoming. This is probably somewhat of a let down game for Texas after their win over Alabama last week. But it still won’t be close. The over feels safer because we could see Texas just relax and run their offense and keep everything in front of them on defense.

Pick: Over

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Mountain West Football: Week 2 Winners And Losers

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Mountain West Football: Week 2 Winners And Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 2 of the college football season?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

What a splendorous Saturday that was.

Sure, Mountain West football didn’t end up seeing a ton of drama because five different games were decided by 20 or more points, but the day wasn’t without angst and joy. Here are the winners and losers for Week 2.

Winners

1. Utah State

No, it wasn’t on the level of their beatdown of Idaho State way back in 1919, but the Aggies created and caught just about every break imaginable in a wild 78-28 victory over the Bengals. Quarterback Cooper Legas looked completely in command of the offense, finishing the game 14-of-16 for 125 yards and two touchdowns before resting the entire second half, while the running back trio of Robert Briggs, Rahsul Faison, and Davon Booth combined to run for 279 yards on 20 rushing attempts. That’s an average of nearly 14 yards per carry.

The Aggies defense did its part, too, forcing three turnovers that turned into 20 points, including pick-sixes by both Ike Larsen and Jaiden Francois, while breaking up eight passes and collecting eight tackles for loss and two sacks. It won’t always come so easily, of course, but Utah State has done a lot in its first two contests to dispel a lot of the uncertainty with which they came into 2023.

2. Air Force’s defense

The Falcons might have had the ugliest win of any Mountain West team this weekend, but it’s an encouraging sign that Brian Knorr’s defense put Sam Houston State in a hammerlock early and never let up to lead the way in a 13-3 result.

Bo Richter had two of the Falcons’ four sacks while Alec Mock cleaned up with a team-high 11 tackles, including six solo stops. The Bearkats had one drive in nine that crossed midfield (and that was only because of an Air Force fumble) and finished the day with six three-and-outs, a 3-of-13 showing on third downs, and 80 yards of total offense which averaged 1.8 yards per play. There’s plenty of room for improvement, but Air Force now knows it can lean on its strength.

3. New Mexico’s offense

Now that’s more like it. The Lobos couldn’t quite get things going in Week 1 against Texas A&M, which wasn’t a huge shock, but they wasted no time putting Tennessee Tech in a world of hurt en route to a 56-10 victory.

Quarterback Dylan Hopkins found an early rhythm and threw for 273 yards and four touchdowns, with one interception, in completing 13-of-17 attempts. Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt continued his strong early campaign, as well, racking up 162 rushing yards and three scores on 12 carries. Three different UNM pass catchers had a reception of at least 40 yards, as well, and all of these are the signs of life that fans desperately needed to see heading into a key rivalry clash with New Mexico State.

Losers

1. Nevada

Woof. The Wolf Pack have established an alarming trend of losing games to FCS opponents, doing so three times since 2017, but their 33-6 loss to the Idaho Vandals might have been even worse than the final score would suggest.

The troubles started early when Nevada had three trips inside the Idaho 30-yard line on their first four drives and managed only two field goals, but the offense crossed midfield just once more in the final three quarters and gave the ball away three times. The defense, meanwhile, managed three sacks but never figured out how to contain Vandals quarterback Gevani McCoy, who threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns and engineered a performance through which Idaho finished the game outgaining Nevada on a per-play basis, 7.8 to 4.2.

Is Ken Wilson already on a hot seat? It may be too early to say for sure, but things haven’t come together as envisioned yet in Reno and it could get worse before it gets better.

2. Boise State’s home field mystique

Are the Broncos just like everyone else now? It’s hard to say with complete certainty one way or the other, but an 18-16 home loss to UCF left the Boise State faithful with more questions than answers. As KTVB’s Jay Tust pointed out, the team now has an 8-6 record at home under head coach Andy Avalos.

On the one hand, the Broncos coughed up 530 yards of total offense at 8.2 yards per play, but on the other the Knights finished their contest with two giveaways, nine points in five red zone trips, and a 40% third-down conversion rate. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty did just about everything you could ask of him, posting 212 all-purpose yards and a touchdown, but quarterback Taylen Green was only 9-of-19 for 144 yards, one TD, and one INT before cramping forced him to give away to backup Maddux Madsen. Madsen led a clutch drive and connected with Stefan Cobbs to give the Broncos a lead with under two minutes to go, but UCF rallied to move 58 yards for the game-winning field goal as time expired.

What happens from here? Next week’s home date with North Dakota qualifies as a “get right” game, but after a 0-2 start the Broncos are under a lot of scrutiny.

3. San Diego State

After a pair of solid defensive showings to open the year, the Aztecs didn’t have any answers against UCLA in a 35-10 blowout at home. Bruins true freshman quarterback Dante Moore looked every bit a five-star player while the running back tandem of Carson Steele and T.J. Harden combined to average 8.3 yards per carry and score two touchdowns.

San Diego State’s offense had some nice moments, most notably Mekhi Shaw’s touchdown reception, but Aztecs quarterback Jalen Mayden was sloppy overall and finished the day 19-of-37 with 196 yards, one TD, and three interceptions. The running game didn’t offer much reprieve, either, since Kenan Christon and Martin Blake mustered only 45 rushing yards on 18 attempts. The result wasn’t terribly surprising, but it demonstrates that the Aztecs still have lots to accomplish in order to re-establish themselves as a top-tier Mountain West contender.

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Week 2 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

Week two of college football is here. We are 12-3 on picks for the year. Let’s see what action the Mountain West has for us this week.

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Week 2 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 2

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 10-2 in week one and are 12-3 on the year. A fantastic week one; let’s see if we can do it again in week two.

UNLV @ #2 Michigan (-37.5, O/U 56.5)

UNLV becomes the cupcake. Michigan’s defense held East Carolina to 3 points. UNLV has one of the top quarterbacks and one of the top receivers in the Mountain West but only threw for 126 yards against Bryant. They won’t be rushing for 300 yards against Michigan.

Pick: Under

Cal Poly @ San JOSe State (No Line)

San Jose State looks to get back on the horse against Cal Poly. It won’t be a cake walk for the Spartans. Cal Poly has Washington transfer Sam Huard under center and they picked apart San Diego last week. The Spartans win, but it will be a close one.

Pick: San Jose State

Portland State @ Wyoming (No Line)

Well, where has this Wyoming team been? The offense still has some questions, but the defense is going to keep them in a bunch of games this season. The Cowboys get a breather game before heading to Austin to face the Longhorns.

Pick: Wyoming

UCF @ Boise STate (+3.5, O/U 58.5)

Boise State doesn’t get a lot of time to get over their loss to Washington. As they welcome UCF to the Blue Turf this week. The Knights are coming off a 700 yard slaughter of Kent State. The line could be too small, but the over feels the safer play.

Pick: Over

Idaho @ Nevada (No LINE)

Nevada gets an FCS game where we could see what changes have been made to the Wolf Pack. Idaho will present a challenge as the Vandals have been a tough out the past few years. Nevada wins, but it’s going to be another close one in the Mountain West.

Pick: Nevada

UCLA @ San DieGO State (+13.5, O/U 48.5)

The defensive battle of the week. We could see San Diego State finally exposed this week, but maybe the past two weeks have been a wake up call for teh Aztecs. The Bruins meanwhile are looking for a chance to go out on top and make their mark one last time in the Pac-12

Pick: Under

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Idaho State vs. Utah State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Aggies look to bounce back at home from a tough opening loss in the season opener. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Idaho State vs. Utah State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Aggies look to bounce back at home from a tough opening loss in the season opener. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Home cooking at Maverik.

WEEK 2: Idaho State Bengals (0-1) vs. Utah State Aggies (0-1)

WHEN: Saturday, September 9 — 6:00 PM MT/5:00 PM PT

WHERE: Maverik Stadium; Logan, UT

WEATHER: Sunny, high of 83 degrees

TV: KJZZ

STREAMING: Mountain West Network

RADIO: The Idaho State broadcast can be found on 91.1 FM (KISU) in Pocatello, Blackfoot, and American Falls, as well as 91.3 FM in Idaho Falls and 88.1 FM in Rexburg. The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 1280 The Zone (KNZS) in Salt Lake City.

SERIES RECORD: Utah State leads the overall series, 18-2. In the last meeting on September 7, 2017, the Aggies defeated the Bengals, 51-13, in Logan.

LAST GAME: Idaho State lost on the road to San Diego State, 36-28, while Utah State lost on the road against Iowa, 24-14.

WEBSITES: ISUBengals.com, the official Idaho State athletics website | UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Idaho State | Utah State

ODDS: N/A

SP+ PROJECTION: Utah State by 23.8

FEI PROJECTION: N/A

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: N/A

After a tough battle in Iowa City to open the 2023 season, the Utah State Aggies begin their home slate against the Idaho State Bengals on Saturday.

The Bengals were erratic but pesky in their first contest of the year against San Diego State, which is something the Aggies surely won’t take lightly after an epic collapse against another FCS opponent, Weber State, just last year. Can Utah State, already battle tested, keep the momentum they began to gain in Week 1?

Three Keys to a Utah State Victory

1. Eliminate big plays on defense.

Unsurprisingly, Brian Ferentz’s offense didn’t exactly light Utah State up in Week 1 but the Aggies were hit with a number of big plays: Iowa had just 284 yards of total offense, but eight of 69 plays (11.6%) accounted for 177 of those yards (62.3%).

Cleaning that up could go a long way toward avoiding unwanted headaches against Idaho State, who weren’t shy about throwing the football with two different quarterbacks, Jordan Cooke and Hunter Hays, and managed six chunk plays totaling 155 of the team’s 343 yards (45.2%) despite a combined completion rate under 50%.

2. Get the pass rush in order.

Another element that will help is more disruptive play from a defensive line that was, also unsurprisingly, quiet against the Hawkeyes. According to Pro Football Focus, Utah State had just three quarterback hurries and hits each in 34 total dropbacks.

It remains to be seen whether Hale Motu’apuaka will be ready to go this week, but it’s clear that the Aggies coaching staff is placing a lot of trust in younger contributors like Paul Fitzgerald, Enoka Migao, Bo Maile, and Seni Tuiaki, all of whom played at least 33 snaps in Week 1. Given that their Mountain West compatriots, San Diego State, managed 20 hurries against these same Bengals, it’s okay to expect a lot.

3. Cut down on penalties.

Yellow flags were a significant problem for Utah State last season and that didn’t appear to change much in the opening loss to Iowa. Four false starts and three personal fouls didn’t help matters against the Hawkeyes, though it remains to be seen whether playing at home instead on the road will matter: In 2022, the Aggies actually averaged more penalties per game at Maverik Stadium than on the road, 9.3 to 7.7.

Prediction

Last week’s Idaho State game wasn’t as close as the final score made it seem — San Diego State finished the week with a 97.7% post-game win expectancy — and this one shouldn’t be, either.

Utah State 38, Idaho State 14

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Mountain West Football: Week 1 Winners And Losers

Things weren’t often pretty for the Mountain West in Week 1, but some heroes emerge in the season’s first full slate of games.

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Mountain West Football: Week 1 Winners And Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 1 of the college football season?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

Week 1 has come and gone and, folks, college football is back. For a lot of Mountain West fanbases, however, the results of the first full weekend of college football action surely left a sour taste in the mouth while a lucky couple found a way to get things against Power 5 opponents.

Here are Mountain West football’s winners and losers for Week 1.

Winners

1. Wyoming

You might be forgiven for writing off the Cowboys after they fell behind 17-0 by the end of the first quarter, but they clawed their way back out of the huge hole one Texas Tech mistake at a time: A second-quarter Tyler Shough interception turned into a Caleb Driskell touchdown reception; a blocked field goal in the third quarter, one of three Red Raider misfires, turned into three more Cowboys points; a dinged-up Andrew Peasley ran for four first downs and a touchdown after halftime.

When Sam Scott scored the two-point conversion that sealed the win in double overtime, he finished a comeback that came about despite Wyoming getting outgained on a per-play basis, 5.4 yards per play to 4.1. That was a product of strong defense (three sacks, nine pass breakups) and timely third-down production (2-of-7 in the first half, 4-of-8 in the second half and OT), exactly the formula Craig Bohl must hope his team can replicate more consistently in the weeks to come.

2. Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene

Power 5 opponent on the road? Check. Absorbed some punishing hits, enough to be sidelined briefly? Check. Balling out of his mind, anyway? Check. Keene’s Fresno State debut had more than a few shades of Jake Haener’s now-legendary performance at UCLA in 2021.

The Bulldogs quarterback set personal bests by completing 31 of 44 passes for 366 yards and four touchdowns against one interception, rallying the road team from a 28-17 deficit just after halftime to secure a season-opening win over Purdue. He was particularly potent on Fresno State’s final drive with 4:30 left in the fourth quarterback, going 6-of-6 for 76 yards with the game-winning 22-yard connection to Erik Brooks.

3. The San Diego State secondary

The Aztecs may have taken their foot off the gas just a touch in the second half of their home win against Idaho State, but position coaches Kyle Hoke and Demetrius Sumler should be pleased with the way their cornerbacks and safeties took care of business. Dezjhon Malone led the way with an interception and four pass breakups, Cedarious Barfield added another interception, and the pass defense held the Bengals to a combined 47.6% completion rate and 4.9 yards per attempt. Things will get tougher in the coming weeks against UCLA and Oregon State, but that’ll play.

Losers

1. Any Mountain West team playing against the Pac-12

Well, that wasn’t pretty at all. Not only did the Mountain West finish Week 1 with a 0-5 record against Pac-12 opponents, the conference got outscored by an average margin of 50.2 to 19.6. No one was immune to getting pasted, either: Nevada, unsurprisingly, allowed 66 points to USC, Colorado State got bullied for 50, and Boise State allowed Washington to score 28 points in the second quarter and 21 more in the fourth quarter.

There are still a few weeks left to right to right this particular ship, but at least Mountain West fans can take solace that they didn’t get the Portland State treatment.

2. Utah State’s banged-up defense

The Aggies aren’t here for the usual reasons but because they battled the Iowa Hawkeyes to a ten-point loss while dealing with some pretty heavy losses on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive tackle Hale Motu’apuaka didn’t play while young linebacker Max Alford may have suffered a season-ending injury, but Utah State held Iowa to 4.1 yards per play and got reasonably successful debuts from the likes of Anthony Switzer, Jaiden Francois, and Bronson Olevao Jr.

There’s plenty of season left, but the Aggies will have to hope they don’t need to dig too far down the depth chart too soon.

3. Colorado State’s offensive line

The more things changed in the trenches, the more they stayed the same for the Rams in Week 1. Much of the attention after Saturday’s lopsided loss to Washington State focused on Clay Millen’s underwhelming stat line but it’s worth noting that, according to Pro Football Focus, among the 14 Mountain West quarterbacks who have at least ten dropbacks in the young season, Millen and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi are 13th and 12th, respectively, in time to throw per attempt (2.40 and 2.41 seconds).

New starting tackles Saveyon Henderson and Drew Moss combined to allow six quarterback hurries and nine pressures on 43 pass-blocking snaps. Run blocking wasn’t much better against Washington State as Avery Morrow and Kobe Johnson combined to average 2.5 yards per carry. The Rams have two weeks to fix all of this in preparation for the suddenly resurgent Colorado Buffaloes in the Rocky Mountain Showdown, but if the improvement doesn’t start up front then the rest may not matter.

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