Team USA and Japan play for the gold medal in the Summer Olympics Women’s Basketball Tournament Saturday. Tip-off will be at 10:30 p.m. ET at Saitama Super Arena. Below, we preview the USA vs. Japan odds and lines, and make our best Summer Olympics bets, picks and predictions.
Both teams won in a rout in the semifinals Friday. USA beat Serbia 79-59 and Japan took down France by an 87-71 score. Team USA is 5-0 in the tournament and won each of its games in the Knockout Stage by 20-plus points. Japan is 4-1 in the tournament with an 86-69 loss to the Americans in the Group Stage as the only blemish.
The USA entered the Olympics as the No. 1 team in the FIBA world rankings. Meanwhile, Japan has had a miracle run on home soil (even without fans) as the 10th-ranked team.
USA vs. Japan: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:31 a.m. ET.
- Money line: USA -3000 (bet $3,000 to win $100) | Japan +800 (bet $100 to win $800)
- Against the spread/ATS: USA -17.5 (-125) | Japan +17.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 160.5 (O: -115 | U: -120)
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USA vs. Japan: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
USA 86, Japan 78
Money line (ML)
Team USA (-3000) is a colossal favorite with an implied win probability of 96.77%. While it’s likely too steep of a price in the final of an international tournament, the Americans are a safe bet to win and secure the gold medal. However, there’s no sense laying $100 to win just $3.33.
There’s also no way to justify betting such a heavy underdog as Japan. We can get adequate value on the Olympic hosts with the spread.
PASS.
Against the spread (ATS)
JAPAN +17.5 (-110) is the best bet in the women’s basketball gold medal game.
Japan topped sixth-ranked Belgium in the quarterfinals before blowing the doors off of fifth-ranked France Friday morning. It also hung around in the 86-69 loss to the Americans in the Group Stage. It’ll put up a strong fight in the final at home in Tokyo.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 160.5 (-115) is a strong play on the total. Both teams focus on offense and have each averaged 83.6 points per game in the tournament.
Japan has hit at a blistering 40.9% rate from 3-point range while the Americans still make a quality 35.7% of 3-pointers and tournament-best 49.7% of all field-goal attempts.
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