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UFC on ESPN 55: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 55 odds between Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round flyweight bout on the main card, Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 55 — also known as UFC Vegas 91 — at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET and is on pay-per-view.

Records: Nicolau (19-4-1) | Perez (24-8-0)

Nicolau had won his first 4 fights at the UFC level, including 3 by decision. However, he suffered a 1st-round knockout loss to Brandon Royval last time out to take a little wind out of his sails. Prior to that, he had scored his first UFC finish with a KO/TKO of Matt Schnell in Round 2 in early Dec. 2022.

Nicolau was expected to fight Manel Kape in the main event, with the latter unable to make it to the octagon for a pair of previous bookings, including missing weight badly in January. Kape is reportedly dealing with a rib injury, which is why Perez was subbed in.

Perez takes Kape’s place, and he is looking to halt a 3-bout losing skid. He was on the short end of a unanimous-decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev last time out, and he has 2 submission losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo prior to that.

Nicolau holds a slight half-inch reach advantage over Perez, while the latter has a 4.12-to-3.66 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Nicolau is more accurate with those strikes at 60.9%, though, while Perez lands at a 55.6% clip. Both are solid in the takedown and grappling departments.

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UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Nicolau -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Perez +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)

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UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Nicolau (-185) is a little too expensive on the 2-way line, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s too much risk for not enough return. Remember, Nicolau is also coming off his first loss at the UFC level, while Perez (+150) is just 3 fights removed from fighting for the flyweight championship. This is a pretty evenly matched fight, talent-wise.

Instead, let’s get specific. Nicolau has won 3 times by decision, while Perez has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 9 fights. Perez does his best work on the ground, posting 3 submission wins since Aug. 8, 2017, in Dana White’s Contender Series while also getting tapped twice against Pantoja and Figueiredo. Nicolau can hold his own on the ground, so we’re not likely to see a submission finish.

NICOLAU BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+275) for a chance to nearly triple up is by far the best play on the board.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-130) is a strong play, as this one is expected to need the assistance of the judges to determine a winner.

In addition, YES: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+120) at plus-money is too tempting to pass up. Every time the fight goes to the canvas, there will be a lot of butterflies for distance bettors, but it’s the best play.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 240 odds between Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Morgan Charriere and Chepe Mariscal meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 (also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 90) at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Charriere vs. Mariscal odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 3 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 6 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Charriere (19-9-1) | Mariscal (15-6-0)

Charriere made his UFC debut with a Round 1 KO/TKO win over Manolo Zecchini in the Gane-Spivac Fight Night in early Sept. 2023. He has 3 consecutive KO/TKO wins in his past 3 pro bouts, and he has won 4 straight fights across all levels.

Mariscal picked up a 2nd-round KO/TKO last time out against Jack Jenkins at UFC 293, and he is 2-0 since making his UFC debut with a unanimous-decision win over Trevor Peek in June 2023. “Machine Gun” has won 5 consecutive bouts across all levels, including 4 KO/TKO victories.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Charriere vs. Mariscal

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Charriere -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mariscal +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -175 | No +130)

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UFC Fight Night 240: Charriere vs. Mariscal picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

We get a fight between 2 young prospects looking to climb the rungs of the UFC ladder.

The 28-year-old Charriere (-120) has shown off tremendous punching power, dropping Zecchini in the 1st round of his UFC debut, while picking up 3 straight finishes inside the distance.

Mariscal (+100) has won 2 fights at the UFC level since his debut, with mixed results. He, too, is a punching machine, and this is going to be an entertaining bout.

If you don’t want to pick a winner in this rather evenly matched fight, playing KO/TKO/DQ (+175) for the “How Fight Will End” prop might be your best bet. If either of these knockout artists wins via KO/TKO/DQ, you win.

Over/Under (O/U)

In addition, NO (+130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong value at plus-money with 2 young fighters who have plenty of KO/TKO wins under their collective belts.

These fighters are likely to take the 1st 5 minutes to feel each other out. We should see the action pick up in Round 2, however, and we’re unlikely to see the judges get involved.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 240 odds between Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 (also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 90) at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Hernandez vs. Jackson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 3 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 6 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Hernandez (14-7-0) | Jackson (22-6-1)

Hernandez was on the losing end of a unanimous decision in a Fight Night in early October last time out. Prior to that, he defeated Jim Miller via unanimous decision in Feb. 2023. He has dropped 3 of the past 4 bouts, and 2 of those losses finished inside the distance, with a KO/TKO setback at UFC 282 to Billy Quarantillo, and a submission loss to Renato Moicano at UFC 271.

Jackson has suffered consecutive losses, falling to Quarantillo via UD last time out in early August, and he was knocked out in Round 2 against Dan Ige in Jan. 2023. His last victory came in 69 seconds in a KO/TKO win over Pat Sabatini in mid-Sept. 2022.

Hernandez holds a 1-inch reach advantage, and the favorite has a 4.63-to-3.02 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Jackson is better on the ground, holding a 2.44-to-1.20 takedown average advantage and 34.69% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has a strong 1.58-to-0.13 submission average advantage.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Hernandez vs. Jackson

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Hernandez -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Jackson +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +175 | No -250)

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UFC Fight Night 240: Hernandez vs. Jackson picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Hernandez (-210), a.k.a. “The Great Ape”, is looking to get back on track after dropping 3 of the past 4 bouts. He has lost in every way imaginable, via decision, via KO/TKO and via submission in the 4-bout span since Feb. 2022. His only win came via unanimous decision against Miller in Feb. 2023.

As such, it’s hard to roll the dice and risk more than 2 times your potential return on a fighter like that. However, Jackson (+170) cannot be trusted, as he has dropped the past 2 bouts, and most of his wins have come against tomato cans.

The best play is to take HERNANDEZ ON POINTS (+350) for a chance to more than triple up. He went the distance in his past 2, and Jackson went the distance last time out. This is too good of a value to pass up.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-160) is a little on the pricey side, but given the recent history of these 2 fighters, it should be a slam-dunk play.

In addition, YES (+175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? has a lot more risk than the above prop play, but it’s a decent value if you don’t want to declare a winner but still want some plus-money action in this main card event.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 240 odds between Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 (also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 90) at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Allen vs. Curtis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 3 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 6 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Allen (23-5-0) | Curtis (31-10-0)

Allen has picked up 6 consecutive victories, with 5 coming via submission. That includes a 3rd-round win against Paul Craig last time out in mid-November in the main event. He also submitted Andre Muniz in a Fight Night main event in Feb. 2023 with another 3rd-round win.

Curtis picked up a split-decision win over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 297, bouncing back after a no-contest against Nassourdine Imavov at UFC 289. He has finished inside the distance just once in his past 5 fights, not including the Imavov bout.

Allen is 8 years younger than his counterpart, while Curtis has a slight half-inch reach advantage. Curtis also has a 5.96-to-3.87 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although “All In” is much more accurate at 60.72% with those strikes, to 52.70% for Curtis.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Allen vs. Curtis

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:20 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Allen -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Curtis +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -110 | Under -120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC Fight Night 240: Allen vs. Curtis picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Allen (-225) will cost you a little more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s too risky on the 2-way line. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.

ALLEN BY SUBMISSION (+175) is the way to go, for a chance to nearly double up. He has been a submission machine since arriving at the UFC level, and really, all throughout his pro career. His go-to move is the rear-naked choke or the triangle choke while also scoring a win with a keylock.

Curtis (+180) will have to do everything in his power to avoid going to the canvas, or this thing will be over quickly.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-120) is priced right, and it’s a strong play. He is going to work hard to get Curtis up against the fence as quickly as possible.

Curtis has ended inside the distance just once in the past 5 fights, not including the no contest, but he hasn’t faced a powerful wrestling force of Allen’s caliber.

Look for Allen to get the job done, and don’t be surprised if we see a choke-out in Rounds 1 or 2.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 54 odds between Erin Blanchfield vs. Manot Fiorot, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Blanchfield (12-1-0) | Fiorot (11-1-0)

This is an elite-level matchup, as Blanchfield and Fiorot have each combined for just 2 losses in 25 career bouts.

Blanchfield has won all 6 fights since arriving at the UFC level, with 3 unanimous-decision wins, including a UD over Taila Santos last time out in late August, while the other 3 wins are each via submission. That includes a win over Jessica Andrade in Feb. 2023 in her only other UFC main event.

Fiorot has logged 4 straight unanimous-decision wins, and she, too, is 6-0 since arriving at the UFC level. That includes a UD win over Rose Namajunas last time out in early September. This is her 1st-ever main event at the UFC level.

Blanchfield is 10 years younger than the challenger, while Fiorot holds a slight 6.05-to-5.58 significant strikes landed per minute. Blanchfield is much more accurate at 61.71% on those strikes, however, while Fiorot tends to flail around, with just a 41.76% accuracy percentage on those strikes.

In the ground game, Blanchfield holds a 2.86 takedown average, and a 1.19 submission average.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Blanchfield -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Fiorot +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -120)

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UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Blanchfield (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive for a standalone wager. As part of a multi-fighter parlay, including Blanchfield can certainly be excused.

The younger fighter is much more accurate with her significant strikes, and she is better in the takedown game, too. Blanchfield also has the experience of a main event to tap into, while this will be Fiorot’s first 5-bout UFC event.

The play is going with BLANCHFIELD BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+200) for a chance to double up. She just does all of the little things better, and she’ll catch the eye of the judges to rack up points per round over the more inaccurate Fiorot.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little expensive, but worth it. Fiorot has ended up going the distance in 4 straight fights, while Blanchfield is coming off a unanimous-decision win against Santos last time out.

YES (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play at near even-money. Fiorot has needed the help of the judges to decide a winner in 4 in a row, while Blanchfield has gone the distance in 4 of her past 7 pro bouts.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 54 odds between Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Chris Weidman and Bruno Silva meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Weidman (15-7-0) | Silva (23-10-0)

The veteran Weidman has lost 7 of the past 9 fights since Dec. 12, 2015, including a unanimous-decision loss at UFC 292 last time out against Brad Tavares in mid-August. He has been knocked out 3 times in the past 5 outings, and his only victory in the 5-bout span is a unanimous-decision win over Omari Akhmedov in Aug. 2020.

Silv has lost back-to-back fights, too, while dropping 4 of the past 5 outings. However, looking at common opponents, he topped Tavares in a 1st-round KO/TKO last April for his only win in the 5-bout span.

Silva holds a 4.43-to-2.98 significant strikes landed per minute, and he is much more accurate on those strikes at 58.45%, while the veteran Weidman is just 51.85%. Weidman is 5 years older than Silva, while holding a 4-inch reach advantage.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Weidman +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Silva -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)

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UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Silva (-200) is a little on the pricey side, costing you 2 times your potential return. Neither of these fighters has been particularly hot lately, so that’s quite a bit to risk.

While Weidman (+165) has looked like a shell of his former self, he holds a 4-inch reach advantage, and he should be able to keep Silva at a distance. Getting more specific, taking SILVA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-115) is much more price friendly, and it’s a winning bet as long as Silva doesn’t win on points, or obviously if Weidman scores the upset.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-130) is a good bet, as Weidman should be able to hold off Silva until at least the middle of Round 2. That reach advantage shouldn’t be discounted, as he will be able to pull Silva in and out at his discretion.

No (-250): Will the fight go the distance? is a little on the pricey side, costing 2½ times your potential return. While it’s likely we get a finish, nothing has been guaranteed with these fighters lately. Weidman has ended up going the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts while getting knocked out in 17 seconds at UFC 261 in between those decisions. Silva went the distance last time out, but had two Round 1 endings prior to that.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 54 odds between Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Luque (22-9-1) | Buckley (17-6-0)

Luque is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Rafael dos Anjos in mid-August in his most recent fight. That halted a 2-bout losing skid with a KO/TKO setback against Geoff Neal in Aug. 2022, and a UD loss to Belal Muhammad in the main event in mid-April of 2022.

Buckley ended up with a UD win over Alex Morono last time out in early October, and he had a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Andre Fialho prior to that. His last loss was a KO/TKO in the 2nd round against Chris Curtis at UFC 282. Buckley has picked up wins in 5 of the past 7 fights, going the distance 3 times.

The southpaw Buckley holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while Luque has a 5.17-to-3.87 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The favorite is way more accurate on those strikes, too, hitting 56.04%, while Buckley throws punches wildly, with just a 35.56% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

In the takedown game, Buckley has 1.51-to-1.04 advantage, although, again, Luque is more accurate at 60.87%, while Buckley has just a 36.67% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Luque -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Buckley +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LUQUE (-135) is just a little more polished. He is 32 years old, and he lands a lot more significant strikes per minute, and he does so with much greater accuracy. And in the takedown department, he is much more accurate there, too.

Luque has gone the distance in 2 of his past 3 fights, and Buckley has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 5 full fights which weren’t ended via doctor’s stoppage. If the judges decide, Luque will win by a mile, as he just does all of the little things better to rack up points throughout the course of a fight.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth the risk. These 2 fighters should feel each other out in the 1st round, and it’s unlikely to be a quick finish. As mentioned above, these fighters have both ended up going the distance frequently lately.

YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also worth a look at plus-money, and LUQUE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) on the 7-way line for a chance to multiply up by 5 times is worth a roll of the dice. That’s a tremendous value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 240 odds between Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Karl Williams and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Williams (9-1-0) | Tafa (7-3-0)

Williams heads into this bout with 3 unanimous-decision wins in 3 fights since joining the UFC. He has 6 consecutive pro victories dating back to B2 Fighting Series 142: Kentucky in a championship bout against Jason Butcher Dec. 4, 2021. He lost via triangle choke/submission in that lone setback in 10 career bouts. He posted a UD win over veteran Chase Sherman last time out in mid-May.

Tafa is coming off a KO/TKO win in 82 seconds against Austen Lane at UFC 293, and he had 3 straight wins via KO/TKO, all in Round 1. He has picked up 4 wins in 7 bouts at the UFC level with one no contest.

Williams holds a 5-inch reach advantage against Tafa, so he’ll be able to pull the fighter in and out at his discretion. The southpaw Tafa has a 5.13-to-2.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, so it would behoove Williams to keep Tafa at a distance. Each fighter is nearly identical in accuracy, with Williams at 59.67% significant strike accuracy percentage, and Tafa at 59.09%.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Williams -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Tafa +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Williams (-185) is just a little too pricey straight up on the 2-way line, although it wouldn’t be unacceptable to toss him into a multi-fighter, or multi-leg, parlay of some sort.

You just can’t risk nearly 2 times your potential return on a single bet, especially against a veteran like Tafa (+150).

Get a little more specific instead. WILLIAMS BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) is a much better play. He’ll be able to push and pull Tafa out due to his immense reach advantage, and Williams has won all 3 of his fights via decision at the UFC level. He has been in no hurry to get finishes.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it isn’t bad if you like to play it safe.

YES (+130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a decent bet if you don’t want to necessarily declare a winner, but want a little action on this fight. Williams is methodical, and he hasn’t secured an early finish in 3 fights at the UFC level.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 53: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 53 odds between Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 53 — also known as UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Ribas (12-4-0) | Namajunas (12-6-0)

Ribas rebounded from a KO/TKO loss to Maycee Barber in June 2023, picking up a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Luana Pinheiro in mid-November. After 3 straight decisions, she has finished inside the distance in the past 2 outings.

Namajunas lost a split-decision championship bout at UFC 274 to Carla Esparza in May 2022, and she was unable to rebound in her return Sept. 2023 at UFC Paris against Manon Fiorot. In fact, Namajunas suffered a broken hand in that fight.

Ribas has a slight 1-inch reach advantage while posting a 4.92-to-3.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The Brazilian fighter is also a lot more accurate with those strikes, landing 52.80% to just 43.65% for “Thug” Namajunas.

Ribas holds a 1.99-to-1.49 takedown average, too, while posting a 0.80-to-0.55 submission average advantage, too.

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UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ribas +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Namajunas -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

RIBAS (+165) is an attractive pick as the moderate underdog against Namajunas (-200), the former champ.

While Ribas has ended up with 3 losses in the past 6 fights, she holds some impressive advantages in all of the major categories. She lands more significant strikes, she is more accurate, and she does a good job on takedowns and submissions, too. That will go a long way to wowing the judges.

RIBAS ON POINTS (+450) for the chance to multiply up by 4½ times is quite an attractive play worth a roll of the dice.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+130): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong value at plus-money.

Ribas hasn’t gone the distance in the past 2 fights, although the most recent bout with Pinheiro was just 67 seconds short of going all the way. Prior to the past bouts, she had gone the distance 3 times while needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 5 of the past 9 outings.

For Namajunas, she has gone the distance in 3 straight bouts, and 4 of the past 5 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 239 odds between Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 239 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 97 and UFC Vegas 88 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Battle (11-2-0) | Loosa (10-3-0)

Battle heads into this fight with 2 consecutive victories inside the distance, posting a 2nd-round submission win against AJ Fletcher last time out in late September. Prior to that, Battle made quick work of Gabe Green with a KO/TKO win in a mere 14 seconds. Since arriving at the UFC level, Battle has won 5 of his 6 fights, with 2 bouts going the distance.

Loosa has appeared in 3 fights at the UFC level, and he has won 2 in a row via unanimous-decision after losing his debut to Mounir Lazzez in April 2022, also via UD. In fact, the fighter from the Democratic Republic of Congo has ended up going the distance in each of his past 7 pro bouts. That streak includes a unanimous-decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 5, Week 3.

Battle enters the octagon with a 3-inch reach advantage, and while Loosa has landed 6.32 significant strikes per minute, Battle is more accurate with 58.28%. Battle is a little better on the ground, too, posting a 0.63-to-0.25 submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Battle -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Loosa +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -165 | No +120)

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UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Battle (-190) is just a little too expensive to bet straight up, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.

Loosa (+160) has ended up going the distance in all 3 fights since arriving at the UFC level and each of his previous 7 pro bouts. As such, backing BATTLE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) at plus-money is a much more attractive option than the more costly 2-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

While Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) is a little on the pricey side, costing 2 times your potential return, backing YES (-165): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is not priced out of line.

Again, the last time we saw Loosa fight inside the distance was at the lower levels against Rustam Khasanov at Tech-Krep FC: International Caucasian Fight Championship way back in Oct. 2016.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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