Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 55 odds between Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez, with MMA picks and predictions.
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In a 5-round flyweight bout on the main card, Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 55 — also known as UFC Vegas 91 — at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET and is on pay-per-view.
Records: Nicolau (19-4-1) | Perez (24-8-0)
Nicolau had won his first 4 fights at the UFC level, including 3 by decision. However, he suffered a 1st-round knockout loss to Brandon Royval last time out to take a little wind out of his sails. Prior to that, he had scored his first UFC finish with a KO/TKO of Matt Schnell in Round 2 in early Dec. 2022.
Nicolau was expected to fight Manel Kape in the main event, with the latter unable to make it to the octagon for a pair of previous bookings, including missing weight badly in January. Kape is reportedly dealing with a rib injury, which is why Perez was subbed in.
Perez takes Kape’s place, and he is looking to halt a 3-bout losing skid. He was on the short end of a unanimous-decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev last time out, and he has 2 submission losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo prior to that.
Nicolau holds a slight half-inch reach advantage over Perez, while the latter has a 4.12-to-3.66 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Nicolau is more accurate with those strikes at 60.9%, though, while Perez lands at a 55.6% clip. Both are solid in the takedown and grappling departments.
Nicolau (-185) is a little too expensive on the 2-way line, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s too much risk for not enough return. Remember, Nicolau is also coming off his first loss at the UFC level, while Perez (+150) is just 3 fights removed from fighting for the flyweight championship. This is a pretty evenly matched fight, talent-wise.
Instead, let’s get specific. Nicolau has won 3 times by decision, while Perez has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 9 fights. Perez does his best work on the ground, posting 3 submission wins since Aug. 8, 2017, in Dana White’s Contender Series while also getting tapped twice against Pantoja and Figueiredo. Nicolau can hold his own on the ground, so we’re not likely to see a submission finish.
NICOLAU BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+275) for a chance to nearly triple up is by far the best play on the board.
OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-130) is a strong play, as this one is expected to need the assistance of the judges to determine a winner.
In addition, YES: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+120) at plus-money is too tempting to pass up. Every time the fight goes to the canvas, there will be a lot of butterflies for distance bettors, but it’s the best play.
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The main event for the UFC’s latest home show is official after the flyweight headliners made weight Friday.
LAS VEGAS – The main event for the UFC’s latest home show is official after the headliners made weight Friday.
Ahead of UFC on ESPN 55 ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN+), which takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex, [autotag]Matheus Nicolau[/autotag] (19-4-1 MMA, 7-2 UFC) and former flyweight title challenger [autotag]Alex Perez[/autotag] (24-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC) stepped on the scale at the official weigh-ins.
Nicolau was 125.5 pounds, while Perez came back at 126 pounds.
Check out the video from their trips to the scale above.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 55.
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 55 main event between Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez.
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 55 flyweight main event between Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez.
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Amateur boxing experience
+ 5 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Good pivots and lateral movements
+ Excellent boxing ability
^ Prefers to counter and work the body
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Excellent grappling ability
^ Dangerous submissions in transition
+/- 2-0 in the UFC Apex
Supplemental info:
+ Tachi Palace flyweight title
+ Wrestling base
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved striking ability
^ Combinations and bodywork
+ Hard calf kicks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Dangerous from front-headlock
+/- 1-2 in the UFC Apex
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez point of interest: Leg kicks and counters
Dec 3, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Matheus Nicolau (red gloves) fights Matt Schnell (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
The main event in Las Vegas features a pairing of flyweights who are familiar with leg kicks and their associated counters.
Despite growing up as a wrestler, [autotag]Alex Perez[/autotag] has developed more and more of a taste for the striking arts since stepping onto the MMA scene.
Initially implementing more of a wrestle-boxing style to start his career, Perez has steadily refined his approach after years spent working with Team Oyama and company. Applying better feints and footwork, Perez will typically prod with jabs off of a high guard as he looks to make his way inside.
Perez displays a decent ability to slip to the outside, usually looking to change levels off it by going to the body. This range of motion also lends itself to the left hooks and leg kicks that the 32-year-old contender has been punctuating his combinations with – skills that were on full display in his fight opposite Jussier Formiga.
I’ll be curious to see what progressions have been made to Perez’s game since working with Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas, but he’ll have to be mindful of what’s coming back at him this Saturday.
Enter [autotag]Matheus Nicolau[/autotag].
A counter fighter by nature, Nicolau presents a potentially tricky puzzle for his opponents to solve.
Utilizing heavy doses of feints and footwork to fuel his lateral movement, Nicolau will often frustrate his opposition into making mistakes when trying to desperately close the distance on him. From counter crosses to checking hooks, Nicolau demonstrates excellent eyes in exchanges and savvy pivots when exiting to safety.
Nicolau is also an underrated leg kicker, but I suspect that his patent body jabs will serve him well in this contest.
Akin to Alex Pereira, Nicolau loves to lean on his body jab at range. Not only do body jabs help set up left hooks, but they can also assist with both manipulating and disguising level changes.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez breakdown: Potential grappling threats
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 21: (L-R) Alex Perez punches Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil in their flyweight championship bout during the UFC 255 event at UFC APEX on November 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Considering each fighter’s acumen with chokes from the front-headlock position, I will be curious to see how eager either man is to take this party to the floor.
Despite his accolades in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Nicolau has displayed some solid wrestling chops since stepping onto the UFC scene. Not only does Nicolau hail from an underrated MMA wrestling camp in Nova Uniao, but the 31-year-old Brazilian has also spent time training stateside at super camps like Jackson-Wink MMA.
Whether Nicolau is shutting shots with good sprawls or is smoothly changing his level off punches, the TUF Brazil alum has proven that there are few positions in the cage that he’s not competent from.
Nevertheless, I’m not sure how much success Nicolau will have when it comes to dictating grappling exchanges with a wrestler like Perez.
Indoctrinated into wrestling from a young age, Perez followed the path of his brothers, Julian Perez and Silverio Esparza (who were also Lemoore High School wrestling champs), excelling as a two-time divisional champ who maintained a top-12 state ranking for his weight class. And by his sophomore year at West Hills College Lemoore, Perez received All-American honors before eventually crossing over into MMA.
Stumbling into his fair share of submission losses on a deceptively tough regional circuit, Perez’s transition into MMA certainly wasn’t an easy one. But since his time spent on the Tachi Palace scene, Perez has appeared to make some serious strides, displaying the ability to both finish and control fighters at a high level.
Whether Perez is chaining off of singles and doubles in the open or getting things done inside of the clinch, the former Selma High School wrestling coach can pretty much do it all. And when he’s able to establish his favored front-headlock position, Perez is quick to abuse a plethora of options that range from front-chokes to back-takes, often chaining them off of each other (as seen in his fight with Carls John de Thomas).
However, if Perez does find himself underneath Nicolau this Saturday, then he’ll need to be careful with the back exposure that his wrestling-style getups typically offer.
A longtime Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Nicolau is an incredibly smooth transitional grappler who can quickly take backs when they become available. Nicolau also wields a wicked submission arsenal from front-headlock variations, which could dissuade some offense from his American counterpart.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez odds
Matheus Nicolau
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Brazilian, listing Nicolau -200 and Perez +154 via FanDuel.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez prediction, pick
Despite my official pick, I don’t disagree with the betting spread above. Aside from the fact that Nicolau will be the competitor with a full training camp, the Nova Uniao product is quietly one of the more technically impressive fighters at 125 pounds.
Bodywork and counter striking may not get the credit they deserve from MMA judges, but Nicolau’s brand of body shots and counters could have some serious play opposite Perez’s propensity to utilize a shelling guard.
Add in Perez’s unfortunate history with opportunistic submissions, and no one should be surprised if Nicolau gets a win with or without the scorecards this weekend. That said, I still find myself leaning toward the American underdog in this spot.
Even though Perez is technically riding a three-fight skid, the majority of those losses came with some serious extenuating circumstances (and fouls) attached. But regardless of the fact that Perez arguably won his last fight, he provides some unique threats that make stylistic opportunities a two-way street in this contest.
Not only does Perez have the wrestling ability to dictate grappling exchanges, but the 32-year-old also has some crushing calf kicks that can potentially punish the boxing-centric stance of Nicolau.
Couple that with the fact that this fight will be taking place in the smaller octagon, and I suspect that Perez’s cage-corralling pressure striking could produce some serious moments opposite Nicolau’s out-fighting sensibilities. I’ll take a flier on Perez to find a knockout by the beginning of Round 2.
Prediction: Perez inside the distance
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez start time, where to watch
Nicolau and Perez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. local time in Las Vegas). The fight airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 55.
Watch Alex Perez put away UFC veteran Jussier Formiga with nasty leg kicks back in 2020.
[autotag]Alex Perez[/autotag] can kick, that’s for sure.
The UFC flyweight veteran put his kicking game on full display when he faced Brazil’s Jussier Formiga back at UFC 250 in 2020. Perez just needed one round and several kicks to the leg to put away Formiga in brutal fashion. Perez repeatedly kicked Formiga’s legs until he could no longer stand, forcing the referee to stop the fight for a TKO ruling.
You can watch Perez’ Performance of the Night win in the video above.
Perez (24-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC) returns to the cage this Saturday in the main event of UFC on ESPN 55, which goes down at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. He takes on flyweight contender Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1 MMA, 7-2 UFC).
Alex Perez explains why he’s not surprised by Steve Erceg’s UFC title shot at flyweight.
LAS VEGAS – Many were puzzled to see [autotag]Steve Erceg[/autotag] get a title shot against UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja – but not [autotag]Alex Perez[/autotag].
Although he might not agree with it, Perez (24-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC) understands very well why Erceg ended up getting a title fight over [autotag]Muhammad Mokaev[/autotag], who many, including Perez, thought was more deserving of the opportunity.
“If you look at resumes, Mokaev has a tougher resume, I believe,” Perez said at Wednesday’s UFC on ESPN 55 media day. “He’s fought longer in the UFC, but he’s also fought Tim Elliot, who fought Demetrious (Johnson), and I fought (Alexandre) Pantoja and Deiveson (Figueiredo), and he beat me.
“But in this sport, you’re just as good as your last performance. It doesn’t matter what you did. Like I said, Steve went out there and did a good job and fought a ranked guy and beat him, then Alessandro (Costa), then comes in and finishes Matt Schnell. That’s very impressive.”
Mokaev has twice as many wins in the UFC as Erceg. Unlike Erceg, he’s unbeaten in his MMA career and has wins over two former UFC title challengers – Perez and Tim Elliott. Yet, the man fighting Pantoja in the main event of UFC 301 in Brazil on May 4 is Erceg, not Mokaev.
Perez, who returns this Saturday against Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1 MMA, 7-2 UFC) in the main event of UFC on ESPN 55 (ESPN, ESPN+), believes it’s more than just having a better resume, it’s also about putting on dominant fights and getting finishes – something Perez feels Mokaev hasn’t done.
“Mokaev went out there, and I was coming off the couch after a year layoff, and it was hard fought,” Perez said. “I thought I won the fight. Obviously, the judges didn’t see it that way, and I can’t disagree with them, but it wasn’t his best performance. It’s also a business. I understand this guy is going in there and putting people to sleep, so why not give him a shot. It’s a business, but it’s also fighting, and you’re just as good as your last performance.”
As far as the fight between Pantoja and Erceg, Perez believes the champion will retain his belt even though he finds Erceg a formidable challenge.
“I give it to Pantoja because of the experience, but Steve is tough because he’s got crisp boxing and Pantoja has shown to get hurt,” Perez said. “Steve, I’ve seen him during fight week, and he’s a big dud, and I think I’m big for the division. He’s tall and has very good boxing. It’s hard today if he’s good on the ground because no one has taken him there. I’ve never done studies on him, so I don’t if he’s been taken down, but he’s looking like a stud. But Pantoja with the experience, and he’s got a great camp in American Top Team, I’m going to go with that.”
On “Spinning Back Clique,” our panel discusses the back-and-forth between Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway, the Diaz-Masvidal press tour, and more.
Check out this week’s “Spinning Back Clique,” MMA Junkie’s weekly live show that takes a spin through the biggest topics in mixed martial arts.
This week’s panel of Brian “Goze” Garcia, Dan Tom and Danny Segura will join host “Gorgeous” George Garcia live at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) to discuss and debate the following topics:
Things between [autotag]Ilia Topuria[/autotag] and [autotag]Max Holloway[/autotag] are heating up. The UFC featherweight champion responded to Holloway’s callout at UFC 300, sparking a public back-and-forth between the two that’s rapidly turning into a rivalry and potentially a fight. Is this the fight to make? It’s certainly starting to draw a lot of interest.
“The Baddest Tour” promoting the upcoming boxing match between [autotag]Nate Diaz[/autotag] and [autotag]Jorge Masvidal[/autotag] has wrapped. The press tour stopped in Las Vegas, New York, Miami, and Los Angeles, with MMA Junkie attending to two of the stops. So was the tour a success? Is there interest around the June 1 matchup? It’s a clash involving two major MMA names going head-to-head against the UFC 302 pay-per-view.
The 2024 PFL season is fully underway, as all six divisions have had their first round bouts for their respective divisions. It’s an important year for the PFL, since this is the first season they host with the addition of the Bellator roster. What to make of the first three PFL events of 2024? Has it made the impact many expected in the MMA industry?
This upcoming Saturday, both BKFC’s KnuckleMania 4 and UFC on ESPN 55 will go down. It’s two different sports, but both share a similar crowd. So which event is drawing the most interest? As far as the fights themselves, who will reign supreme between [autotag]Mike Perry[/autotag] and [autotag]Thiago Alves[/autotag]? How important is [autotag]Matheus Nicolau[/autotag] vs. [autotag]Alex Perez[/autotag] for the UFC’s flyweight division? Plenty to preview between both cards.
Alex Perez replaces Manel Kape to fight Matheus Nicolau in the main event of UFC Fight Night 241 on April 27.
[autotag]Manel Kape[/autotag]’s 2024 return to the octagon has been delayed again.
The UFC flyweight contender is out of his bout against [autotag]Matheus Nicolau[/autotag], which was to serve as the headliner of a UFC Fight Night event on April 27 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Now, veteran [autotag]Alex Perez[/autotag] has been pulled from a scheduled matchup of his own to step in as a replacement to face Nicolau.
The news was announced by the promotion on Tuesday and later independently confirmed by MMA Junkie.
Kape (19-6 MMA, 4-2 UFC) and Nicolau (19-4-1 MMA, 7-2) were originally supposed to rematch in January, but the fight was scrapped after Kape missed weight by 3.5 pounds. Kape has had many fight cancellations in the last couple of years, leaving him to fight only once in 2022 and once more in 2023.
Nicolau was the last fighter to defeat Kape, winning a split decision in March 2021. He looks to rebound from a loss to former title challenger Brandon Royval, which snapped the 31-year-old’s six-fight winning streak.
Replacing Kape, Perez (24-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC) is also looking to bounce back from defeat. “Turbo” was scheduled to face Tagir Ulanbekov on June 15 before the shift to facing Nicolau. The former UFC title challenger is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev in March. He’s currently on a three-fight losing streak, with his last win coming in 2020.
Check out all the facts from UFC Fight Night 238, which saw Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Muhammad Mokaev and Umar Nurmagomedov make noise.
The UFC opened its March schedule Saturday with UFC Fight Night 238, which took place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
The main event saw [autotag]Jairzinho Rozenstruik[/autotag] (14-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC) overcome a slow start to batter [autotag]Shamil Gaziev[/autotag] (12-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) in a referee TKO stoppage after the end of the fourth round, putting him back on the winning track.
For more on the numbers behind the card, which featured six finishes in 11 fights – and a couple of them unique – check below for MMA Junkie’s post-event facts from UFC Fight Night 238.
UFC Fight Night 238 fighters took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay, a program that continued after the UFC’s deal with Venum.
LAS VEGAS – Fighters from Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 238 event took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay totaling $133,500.
The program, a comprehensive plan that includes outfitting requirements, media obligations and other items under the fighter code of conduct, replaces the previous payments made under the UFC Athlete Outfitting Policy.
UFC Fight Night 238 took place at the UFC Apex. The entire card streamed on ESPN+.
The full UFC Fight Night 238 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts included:
Under the UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance program’s payout tiers, which appropriate the money generated by Venum’s multi-year sponsorship with the UFC, fighters are paid based on their total number of UFC bouts, as well as Zuffa-era WEC fights (January 2007 and later) and Zuffa-era Strikeforce bouts (April 2381 and later). Fighters with 1-3 bouts receive $4,000 per appearance; 4-5 bouts get $4,500; 6-10 bouts get $6,000; 11-15 bouts earn $11,000; 16-20 bouts pocket $16,000; and 21 bouts and more get $21,000. Additionally, champions earn $42,000 while title challengers get $32,000.
In addition to experience-based pay, UFC fighters will receive in perpetuity royalty payments amounting to 20-30 percent of any UFC merchandise sold that bears their likeness, according to officials.
Full 2024 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts:
Did Muhammad Mokaev do enough to earn a crack at UFC gold?
[autotag]Muhammad Mokaev[/autotag] did enough to get the win Saturday at UFC Fight Night 238, but was it enough to get a shot at the promotion’s flyweight title?
The script isn’t finished yet and Mokaev (11-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) will have to wait and see. But after his win over [autotag]Alex Perez[/autotag] (24-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC), Mokaev has one more unanimous decision victory on the resume, which he earned with 29-28s across the board.
Mokaev utilized his signature wrestling and suplex abilities, paired with some ground-and-pound to walk away the victor. Perez, despite only having 3:24 of in-cage time since mid-2020, proved to be a worthy foe. Perez had a strong Round 2 and competitive Round 3, but it wasn’t enough to get the nod.
Muhammad Mokaev moves to 12-0 at #UFCVegas87 and calls for Alexandre Pantoja title fight at UFC 301.
After the fight, Mokaev called for flyweight title holder Alexandre Pantoja. The UFC flyweight champion Pantoja (27-5 MMA, 11-3 UFC) has said he wants to compete May 4 at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Mokaev joins Brandon Royval (16-7 MMA, 6-3 UFC) in the conversation as to who his opposition could be at that event.
Mokaev, 23, has been highly-touted since his amateur days with UFC wins over Perez, Tim Elliott, Charles Johnson and others.
Up-to-the-minute UFC Fight Night 238 results include:
Muhammad Mokaev def. Alex Perez via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
