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UFC 305: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 305 odds between Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round flyweight bout on the main card, Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg meet Saturday at UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 305: Kara-France vs. Erceg odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Kara-France (24-11-0) | Erceg (12-2-0)

The diminutive Kara-France stands 4 inches shorter than his Aussie counterpart, but he has a slight 1-inch reach advantage.

This is an evenly matched battle as far as significant strikes landed per minute, with KKF at 4.57 and Erceg checking in at 4.53. The Aussie is much more accurate, however, as Erceg has a 53.04% significant strikes accuracy percentage, to just 43.97% for the Kiwi. Erceg is much better on takedown average, holding a 1.24-to-0.63 advantage.

Kara-France lost to Brandon Moreno at UFC 277 in a championship bout, getting knocked out in Round 3. He responded poorly next time out, falling to Amir Albazi via split decision in a Fight Night main event last time out in early June.

Erceg was on the losing end of a unanimous decision at UFC 301 in a flyweight title bout against Alexandre Pantoja, so this is an interesting fight. The winner can get right back into the title picture, while the loser falls further away from that goal.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 305: Kara-France vs. Erceg odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Kara-France +156 (bet $100 to win $156) | Erceg -186 (bet $186 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -260 | Under +196)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -215 | No +164)

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UFC 305: Kara-France vs. Erceg picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s always a good idea in a fight which appears to be a coin flip to back the fighter from the host nation. ERCEG (-186) is a little on the pricey side, but he isn’t over my personal limit for a standalone moneyline wager. In addition, he’s an excellent addition for a multi-leg parlay ticket.

Erceg is just a little more accurate with his significant strikes, and he’ll have the home nation on his side. And, if he needs to, he has the takedown ability in his quiver, which is another aspect which will help wow the judges in his favor.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return. That’s way too expensive, as is Yes (-215): Will the fight go the distance? Maybe you can take the latter as part of a parlay, but don’t think about it straight up.

Instead, get a little more specific. We like the favorite to get the job done. He’ll likely win via decision, so taking ERCEG BY POINTS (+125) at plus-money is by far a better value than the options above.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 305: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 305 odds between Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight championship bout in the main event, Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya meet Saturday at UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Du Plessis (21-2-0) | Adesanya (24-3-0)

These 2 African combatants fight for the middleweight strap in the Southern Hemisphere, but down under in Australia.

Du Plessis plucked the middleweight strap from Sean Strickland via split decision last time out at UFC 297. Since landing in the UFC, the South African fighter has won all 7 of his fights, including 5 wins inside the distance. In those 5 finishes, 4 have come via KO/TKO, including 3 straight in Round 2, while also recording 1 submission win over Darren Till at UFC 282.

On the flip side, Adesanya was on the short end of a unanimous-decision loss to Strickland at UFC 293. So, “The Last Stylebender” has managed losses in 2 of his past 3 fights, all championship bouts, and he is just 4-3 in the previous 7 outings, again, all title fights.

Stylebender avenged a 5th-round KO/TKO at UFC 281 against Alex Pereira by winning his belt back with a 2nd-round KO/TKO at UFC 287 in the rematch. However, 5 of his past 7 fights have ended up going the distance.

Adesanya heads into this bout with a 4-inch reach advantage, although the switch-stance South African fighter has a huge 6.49-to-3.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Du Plessis is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 52.03% to 51.68% for Adesanya.

In the takedown game, Du Plessis will look to turn this into a wrestling match. He has 3.00 takedown average and 51.61% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has a 0.75-to-0.15 submission average advantage.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Du Plessis -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Adesanya -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +104 | Under -132)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +108 | No -136)

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UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

This is an intriguing fight, as Du Plessis (-102) is a punching machine. And, after years of being an impenetrable wall, ADESANYA (-116) has shown some cracks. But, the Nigerian fighter knows how to wow the judges and do what it takes to outpoint his opponent.

In this particular fight, Adesanya will have his work cut out, as Du Plessis has an impressive 1.72 striking differential, 3rd among all active middleweights. But, Adesanya has a 57.4% significant strike defense mark, ranking 7th among all active fighters in the division.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (+104) is a solid play, as Adesanya fights tend to go long. Du Plessis, with his 6.49 strikes landed per minute, will be looking to fix that, but don’t expect a quick finish.

In fact, YES (+108): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? at plus-money is a decent value, given Adesanya’s history. With his 4-inch reach advantage, he’ll be able to push and pull Du Plessis out and keep him at a distance when he wants.

And, if you really want to get specific, ADESANYA BY POINTS (+230) for the chance to more than double up is certainly worth a roll of the dice.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 61 odds between Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s bantamweight bout on the main card, Yana Santos and Chelsea Chandler meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Santos vs. Chandler odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Santos (14-8-0) | Chandler (6-2-0)

Santos enters this fight on a 3-bout skid, falling to Karol Rosa last time out via split decision. Before that, Holly Holm defeated Santos by unanimous decision, and she was knocked out in Round 1 against Irene Aldana at UFC 264. Her last win was a unanimous-decision win over Ketlen Vieira Feb. 20, 2021.

For Chandler, she has 3 fights under her belt since arriving at the UFC level. She topped Josiane Nunes last time out via unanimous decision, but fell by way of unanimous decision against Norma Dumont prior to that. In her UFC debut, she dropped Julija Stoliarenko in Round 1 Oct. 1, 2022.

Santos has a 4.16-to-3.45 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and she is much more accurate at 71.03%, to just 57.48% for Chandler. The underdog is slightly better in takedown average and accuracy.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Santos vs. Chandler odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Santos -156 (bet $156 to win $100) | Chandler +132 (bet $100 to win $132)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -380 | Under +270)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -320 | No +230)

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UFC on ESPN 61: Santos vs. Chandler picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SANTOS (-156) is fighting to stay with the promotion, as she cannot afford too many more losses. She needs to pick up the pace — and pick it up quickly.

Facing Chandler (+132) might be the perfect opponent to halt the skid. Santos is an accurate punching machine, and she’ll be able to get the job done against the southpaw.

As far as the method of victory is concerned, SANTOS BY POINTS (+100) at plus-money is a solid value. She has needed the help of the judges to determine a winner in each of her past 2 fights, and Santos has gone the distance in 4 of the past 5 fights and 6 of the previous 8 outings.

Chandler has gone the distance in each of her past 2 fights and 5 of her 8 pro bouts overall.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-380) will cost you nearly 4 times your potential return, and Yes (-320): Will fight go the distance? will set you back 3 times your initial wager.

AVOID both props, as that is just way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 61 odds between Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Jackson (23-6-1) | Mariscal (16-6-0)

Jackson picked up a split-decision win over Alexander Hernandez April 6, halting a 2-bout losing skid. He suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Billy Quarantillo in Aug. 2023, while getting knocked out in Round 2 against Dan Ige Jan. 2023.

Mariscal has won all 3 of his fights since arriving at the UFC level, and he has won 6 straight pro bouts dating back to March 4, 2022. His last fight was a split-decision win against Morgan Charriere April 6, and 2 of his 3 UFC bouts have ended up going the distance.

Jackson stands 4 inches taller than his counterpart and holds a 2-inch reach advantage. Mariscal has a 4.70-to-3.00 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate at 64.77% to just 49.29%. Jackson has a 1.38-to-0.39 submission average advantage.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Jackson +162 (bet $100 to win $162) | Mariscal -194 (bet $194 to win $1000
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -116 | Under -110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -140)

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UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Mariscal (-194) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive straight up on the 2-way line.

JACKSON (+162) is worth a look as a rather moderate underdog. His ground game is good, and Mariscal hasn’t seen an opponent with a wrestling game like his.

If you really want to get crazy with the potential for a big payoff, JACKSON BY SUBMISSION (+550) is worth a roll of the dice. If Jackson can get Mariscal to the mat, it’s not going to go well for the favorite, as he is a puncher and more of a toe-to-toe brawler.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-110) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at most.

We’re looking for this fight to end with a tap, and NO (-140): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is certainly not priced out of line.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 61 odds between Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Tybura (25-8-0) | Spivac (16-4-0)

Tybura suffered a 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Tom Aspinall in the main event in a Fight Night July 22, 2023. He rebounded in the main event against Tai Tuivasa in a 1st-round submission win March 16. Tybura has managed 4 stoppages in the past 7 fights, although he has gone the distance 6 times in the past 10 outings.

This is actually the 2nd meeting at the UFC level between these fighters. Tybura picked up a unanimous-decision victory Feb. 29, 2020.

Spivac, aka the Polar Bear, is looking for the bounceback after getting knocked out in Round 2 by Ciryl Gane in a main event Sept. 2, 2023. That comes on the heels of a Round 1 submission in a main event Feb. 4, 2023. Each of his past 5 fights have finished inside the distance.

The 38-year-old Tybura has an ever-so-slight 3.60-to-3.54 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Spivac has a 62.06% significant strikes accuracy percentage. Spivac also has an impressive 4.56 takedown average while posting a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.51 submission average.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tybura +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Spivac -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -102 | Under -124)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +162 | No -215)

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UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SPIVAC (-156) is a strong play as a moderate favorite in this rematch.

Tybura (+132) won the 1st meeting back in Feb. 2020, but that’s over 4 years ago, and now Tybura is in his upper 30s with a lot of tread on the tires.

Spivac will be trying to get Tybura to the mat early and often, as he is the far more superior grappler.

SPIVAC BY KO/TKO (+195) is worth a look in the “Method of Victory”, as 4 of his past 5 fights have ended via knockout, with 2 wins and 2 losses by way of the method.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-124) is worth a play. Neither of these fighters have been distance fighters, especially lately.

Each of the past 5 fights for Spivac have finished inside the distance, and 3 of the bouts in the span haven’t made it out of Round 1.

For Tybura, each of his past 2 bouts have also ended in Round 1, although 3 of the past 5 fights have gone the distance, so don’t get too carried away.

However, playing No (-215): Will the fight go the distance? is a little on the expensive side, so PASS on that.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ABC 7: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 7 odds between Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s strawweight bout on the main card, Mackenzie Dern and Loopy Godinez meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 7 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 7: Dern vs. Godinez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin noon ET, on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET, on ABC/ESPN.

Records: Dern (13-5-0) | Godinez (12-4-0)

Dern has lost the past 2 fights while going just 2-4 in the past 6 bouts. She suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Amanda Lemos at UFC 298 in her most recent fight. Prior to that, she suffered a Round 2 KO/TKO loss at UFC 295 against Jessica Andrade.

The fight against Andrade was a rarity, as Dern has gone the distance in 5 of the previous 6 outings.

Mexico’s Godinez suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Virna Jandiroba last time out March 30, snapping a 4-bout win streak. Like Dern, she often needs the judges to determine a winner. Since Oct. 16, 2021, Godinez has ended up going the distance 8 times in the past 9 outings.

Dern has a 2-inch reach advantage, and she is also 2 inches taller. Godinez has a 4.13-to-3.31 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and the Mexican fighter is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 53.97% to 52.97%. Godinez also has a 3.04 takedown average, while Dern has a 1.31-to-1.01 submission average advantage.

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UFC on ABC 7: Dern vs. Godinez odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dern -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Godinez +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -260 | Under +192)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -215 | No +162)

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UFC on ABC 7: Dern vs. Godinez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

GODINEZ (+102) is worth a look as the slight underdog. The Team RVCA fighter Dern (-120) has dropped 2 straight fights and 4 of the past 6.

Godinez throws a few more significant strikes per minute, and she is a little more accurate. In addition, she has tremendous takedown average numbers, while Dern’s only slight advantage is in the submission department.

GODINEZ BY POINTS (+135) is a little better of a value in the Method of Victory department, too, as this fight is more than likely to go the distance.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-215): Will the fight go the distance? will cost you more than 2 times your return. That’s way too much risk despite the tremendous frequency of going the distance for both of these fighters at the UFC level.

There is also no way to justify playing Over 2.5 Rounds (-260), which is even more expensive. Just focus on the 2-way line and method of victory.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ABC 7: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 7 odds between Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Marlon Vera and Deiveson Figueiredo meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 7 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 7: Vera vs. Figueiredo odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin noon ET, on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET, on ABC/ESPN.

Records: Vera (23-9-1) | Figueiredo (23-3-1)

Vera last fought at UFC 299, losing a unanimous-decision championship fight against Sean O’Malley March 9. He is now 1-2 in his past 3 bouts, also falling to Cory Sandhagen via split decision in a main event fight March 25, 2023.

Each of Vera’s past 3 bouts have ended up going the distance, while he has had just 2 finishes in the past 8 bouts.

Figueiredo is a former champ who won the strap Feb. 29, 2020, against Joseph Benavidez, before defending against the same fighter July 18, 2020. He also stopped Alex Perez in a title defense at UFC 255. He fought to a draw in a title fight with Brandon Moreno at UFC 256, before losing via submission at UFC 263, also to Moreno.

He fought Moreno 4 straight times, winning via unanimous decision at UFC 270, before falling via TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage at UFC 283. Since, he picked up a unanimous-decision win over Rob Font while posting a 2nd-round submission win over Cody Garbrandt, positioning himself for another title shot.

Vera has a 2.5-inch reach advantage, and the switch-stance fighter has a 4.31-to-3.01 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Figueiredo is a little more accurate at 60.05% on those significant strikes, to just 52.20% for Vera. Figueiredo is much better in the submission average category, too, posting a 1.73 mark to just 0.87 for the Ecuadoran.

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UFC on ABC 7: Vera vs. Figueiredo odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Vera +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Figueiredo -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -280 | Under +205)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -225 | No +174)

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UFC on ABC 7: Vera vs. Figueiredo picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

FIGUEIREDO (-142) is worth a look as a moderate favorite to win straight up on the 2-way line.

The former champ has looked good in his past 2 fights, topping Font via unanimous decision while making quick work of Sandhagen at UFC 300 with a Round 2 submission.

Vera (+120) has never been submitted or knocked out. It’s more than likely that if the Brazilian gets the job done, the judges will be involved. As such, FIGUEIREDO BY POINTS (+105) at plus-money is an attractive play.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-225): Will the fight go the distance? will set you back more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too risky for not nearly enough of a reward.

In addition, Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and there is no value in that, either. Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including the Over/Under props makes little to no sense.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 7: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 7 odds between Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round bantamweight bout in the main event, Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 7 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin noon ET, on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET, on ABC/ESPN.

Records: Sandhagen (17-4-0) | Nurmagomedov (17-0-0)

Sandhagen lost in his first and only UFC title fight against Petr Yan at UFC 267, but he has bounced back with 3 straight victories over Song Yadong, Marlon Vera and Rob Font, with the past 2 wins coming via decision.

For Nurmagomedov, he is unbeaten in 5 fights at the UFC level. In fact, he has never lost in 17 career pro bouts since Dec. 16, 2016. He picked up a unanimous-decision win March 2 against Bekzat Almakhan, coming on the heels of a Round 1 KO/TKO of Raoni Barcelos in Jan. 2023.

In 17 fights for Nurmagomedov, he has won 2 times via KO/TKO, and 7 times via submission. For Sandhagen, he has never been knocked out, going 7-0 via the method. He is 3-1 by way of submission, too.

Sandhagen holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage, and the switch-stance fighter has a 5.33-to-4.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

Nurmagomedov is much more accurate at 74.49% on those strikes, while Sandhagen checks in at just 50.04%. Nurmagomedov is strong in the takedown game, too, posting a 4.51 takedown average and 56.00% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Sandhagen +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Nurmagomedov -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +205)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -134 | No +106)

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UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

There is no value playing the unbeaten Nurmagomedov (-350), as he will cost you 3½ times your potential return. There is just no value playing such a heavy favorite. Let’s get more specific instead.

When Sandhagen has been beaten since Oct. 30, 2021, he has made the opposition work. He lost via split decision to TJ Dillashaw, and he lost via unanimous decision to Yan in the title fight.

If Sandhagen goes down, it will be because the unbeaten Dagestani fighter wowed the judges. Play NURMAGOMEDOV BY POINTS (+115) for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-134): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t a bad play, and it isn’t priced out line.

Sandhagen has gone the distance in 2 straight, and 4 of the past 5 bouts, against top competition.

For Nurmagomedov, he has needed the judges in 2 of his past 3 outings. OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-150) is a suggested play if you’d like a little wiggle room in the event of a 5th-round finish.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 304 odds between King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, King Green and Paddy Pimblett meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Green (32-15-1) | Pimblett (21-3-0)

Green bounced back from a 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Jalin Turner in early December with a unanimous-decision win over Jim Miller in mid-April at UFC 300 in Las Vegas. King is 3-1 in his past 4 fights since a no-contest against Jared Gordon in April 2023.

It’s a rarity to see Green fights go the judges’ cards as each of his past 6 bouts resulted in a finish inside the distance. Since a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Al Iaquinta at UFC 268 in November 2021, he has gone the distance just twice in the past 9 events. In fact, in 4 of the past 7 bouts, the fight hasn’t made it past the opening round.

For Pimblett, he is coming off back-to-back unanimous-decision wins over Tony Ferguson (Dec. 16, 2023) and Gordon (Dec. 10, 2022). Prior to that, he submitted Jordan Leavitt (July 2022) and Kazula Vargas (March 2022), while posting a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Luigi Vendramini (September 2021), showing off his versatility.

Since arriving at the UFC level, he has 2 wins by decision, 2 wins by submission and 1 KO/TKO victory. The Baddy can get it done in a number of different ways. In his career, Pimblett is 21-3-0, going 6-0 via KO/TKO and 9-1 by way of submission.

Pimblett has a number of things on his side. The Englishman will have a pro-home crowd spurring him on, and he holds a 2-inch reach advantage. Green has a 6.45-to-5.13 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Pimblett is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 59.67% to 55.21% for Green.

Takedown average difference is negligible, but Paddy has a 1.63 submission average, so it might behoove King to keep this fight upright.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Green -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Pimblett -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -172 | Under +134)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -140 | No +110)

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UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

BACK PIMBLETT (-104). He will easily be facing the toughest opponent he has met at the UFC level as the veteran Green (-112) is a beast.

There isn’t a lot to glean, as far as common opponents, as Green had a no contest against Gordon, while Pimblett eased by Gordon via unanimous-decision.

However, what stands out is that this fight is in Manchester, which is the equivalent of Ivan Drago hosting Rocky in Moscow. It will be a pro-Paddy crowd, but the hometown fans aren’t likely to turn on Pimblett in the end.

BETTING PIMBLETT (-104) is the play here.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-140): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t priced out of line, and it is a good bet in this bout on the main card.

Green ended up going the distance in his last bout — vs. Miller — while Pimblett has needed the assistance of the judges to determine a winner in his past 2 fights. As the quality of opponent increases, so does the length of the bout. That will be especially true in this clash.

If you’re like a little more wiggle room, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-172) is a little pricey, but even if the fight ends in the 2nd half of Round 3 or beyond, you’re a winner.

Since we tabbed the Briton to win on the 2-way line, rolling the dice on PIMBLETT BY POINTS (+280) for the chance to nearly triple up on the method of victory prop is worth a light play.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 304 odds between Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Aspinall (14-3-0) | Blaydes (18-4-0)

Aspinall plucked the heavyweight strap from Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 with a resounding KO/TKO win in just 69 seconds on Nov. 11, 2023. This will be his 1st title defense.

Prior to that victory, Aspinall posted a KO/TKO win over Marcin Tybura in the main event of a fight night in July 2023. That’s 2 straight KO/TKO wins since his last loss, but that’s the rub. His most recent setback was a KO/TKO loss in just 15 seconds in a main event against Blaydes in July 2022.

Blaydes bounced back from a Round 1 KO/TKO loss to Pavlovich in the main event April 22, 2023, posting a KO/TKO in Round 2 against Jailton Almeida at UFC 299 this past March. Each of Blaydes’ past 4 fights have resulted in KO/TKO, with 3 victories, including the short one over Aspinall.

Blaydes, nicknamed Razor, has managed 9 KO/TKO results in his past 12 bouts since June 9, 2018, with 6 victories by way of knockout, and 3 losses — to Pavlovich, Derrick Lewis (February 2021) and Francis Ngannou (November 2018), which is certainly nothing to be ashamed about.

In the tale of the tape, Blaydes holds a 2-inch reach advantage, while Aspinall is an absolute punching machine. He has 7.72 significant strikes landed per minute, while landing them at an impressive 68.08% rate. Blaydes has just a 3.53 significant strikes landed minute rate, but when he does land them, they’re extremely effective.

Both are tremendously efficient in takedown average, with Blaydes checking in at 5.72 and Aspinall at 3.46. Both of those numbers are off the charts. Aspinall has a sparkling 100.0% takedown-accuracy percentage, too, while Blaydes is at 53.45%, which is still phenomenal. Aspinall has an outstanding 1.73 submission average, too.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Aspinall -405 (bet $405 to win $100) | Blaydes +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +134 | Under -172)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +560 | No -1000)

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UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Aspinall (-405) suffered the 15-second knockout against Blaydes (+320) in the July 2022 bout, but even if that didn’t happen, this big -405 number should give bettors pause. Betting such heavy favorites, even as part of a multi-leg parlay, is not a recommended betting strategy over the long term.

Aspinall will be fighting in his native United Kingdom, and he’ll have an arena at full throat which should energize him. In fact, with fellow countryman Leon Edwards fighting in the other co-main event, it’s gonna be a raucous and wild pro-England crowd, resembling a soccer match.

Since we’re rolling with the current champ, playing ASPINALL BY KO/TKO (-155) is the way to go as far as the method of victory is concerned.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1000): Will the fight go the distance? is ridiculously priced, and even the alternate round betting prop which has Aspinall winning in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 (-230) is a little pricey.

The best prop bet to roll with is FIGHT TO REACH SECOND ROUND: YES (-115). We’re unlikely to see a Round 1 finish as Aspinall won’t be caught with a devastating blow early in the fight like the previous matchup.

In fact, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+134) at plus-money is super tempting, and could be a nice value, too, especially as part of a multi-leg parlay.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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