Tag: UFC Fight Night 242 betting odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC Fight Night 242: Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 242 odds between Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round men’s featherweight bout on the main card, Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Garcia (16-5-0) | Nelson (16-5-1)

Garcia is a southpaw who enters this bout with a 4-inch reach advantage. The 32-year-old also has a 5.00-to-3.65 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while hitting those strikes at a 63.64% accuracy. On the flip side, Nelson is just 50.18% on his significant strikes.

In the takedown average, the difference is rather negligible, with Garcia holding a slim 1.27-to-1.10 lead. Both fighters have a 0.63 submission average, too.

Garcia, a.k.a. “Mean Machine,” enters this bout with 4 consecutive victories, all via KO/TKO. That includes a win over SeungWoo Choi last time out in just 96 seconds and a Round 2 KO/TKO of Melquizael Costa prior to that in Dec. 2023.

Garcia’s previous 6 bouts have ended by way of KO/TKO, with 5 wins. The last time he didn’t have an early finish was a unanimous-decision loss to Luis Pena in his UFC debut Feb. 29, 2020.

For Nelson, he has snapped onto track after a rough start to his UFC career. After going 1-4 in his 1st 5 bouts with the company, Nelson has 3 straight wins, including a KO/TKO in Round 1 against veteran Bill Algeo last time out. Prior to that, he had a pair of unanimous-decision victories over Fernando Padilla at Noche UFC and Blake Bilder at UFC 289.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Garcia -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Nelson +152 (bet $100 to win $152)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +136 | Under -174)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -750)

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UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s a little too expensive to back Garcia (-180) straight up on the 2-way moneyline, but despite the 3-bout win streak for Nelson (+152), the latter cannot be trusted.

Instead, let’s roll with GARCIA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-145) on the 5-way line. You could play just KO/TKO and DQ on the 7-way line, but it’s literally pennies more and you add the possibility of a tap out.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+136) is worth a roll of the dice here.

Yes, Garcia has 6 straight bouts decided by KO/TKO, with each of the past 5 fights not making it past the halfway point of Round 2. So, playing Over will take a little bit of a leap of faith.

However, Nelson has gone the distance in 4 straight fights, so he knows how to hang around and avoid the big kill shot.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 242 odds between Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Andrade vs. Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Andrade (26-12-0) | Silva (17-5-1)

The veteran Andrade snapped a 3-bout losing skid with a 2nd-round KO/TKO of Mackenzie Dern at UFC 295 in Nov. 2023. She followed that up with a split-decision win over Marina Rodriguez at UFC 300 in April, and she appears to be back on track.

Andrade is now 5 years removed from her title victory over Rose Namajunas at UFC 237 May 11, 2019, but “Bate Estaca” is still just 32 years old and very dangerous in the octagon.

Silva is a 27-year-old southpaw who has won all 5 fights since making her UFC debut with a unanimous-decision victory over Jasmine Jasudavicius June 18, 2022. She has 3 UD wins and 2 KO/TKO victories since making her company debut.

Silva has a 3-inch reach advantage over the veteran, and she stands 3 inches taller, too. Andrade is still a punching machine, though, holding a 6.62-to-4.53 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and she is much more accurate with 56.66% of those strikes landed, to just 49.78% for the favorite.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Andrade vs. Silva odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Andrade +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Silva -310 (bet $310 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -196 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -148 | No +116)

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UFC Fight Night 242: Andrade vs. Silva picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s a strange position to see Andrade (+250), but she is a giant underdog to Silva (-310). This is a difficult fight to handicap, as the veteran still has plenty left in the tank and has had a resurgence of late. However, Silva is a heavy favorite who just has done everything right since joining the company.

PASS, and look to the distance instead. If you absolutely have to have action on this fight, the value is on the aging, but still very dangerous underdog Andrade.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-148): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is not priced out of line.

Andrade went the distance last time out against Rodriguez. While that was a bit of a rarity for her, Silva has gone the distance in the past 2 bouts and 3 of her 5 fights since joining the UFC.

Playing Over 2.5 Rounds (-196) doesn’t make as much sense, as you need to risk nearly 2 times your potential return for just a little bit of wiggle room in the event of a late Round 3 finish.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 242 odds between Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round welterweight bout in the main event, Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Burns (22-7-0) | Brady (16-1-0)

Burns heads into this one in a bit of a tailspin, as he was knocked out in Round 3 at UFC 299 by Jack Della Maddalena, and he was stopped via unanimous decision against Belal Muhammad at UFC 288. He hasn’t won since a UD victory against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 287 in April 2023.

Burns has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights since losing a title bout to Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 in Feb. 2021, going 3-3 in those outings.

For Brady, he bounced back from a KO/TKO loss to Muhammad at UFC 280 with a 3rd-round kimura submission victory against Kelvin Gastelum. He has had 4 stoppages in the past 5 fights, with a lone unanimous-decision victory over Michael Chiesa Nov. 20, 2021, as the only fight to go the distance in the span.

Brady has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while youth is also on his side at 31, as opposed to 38 years of age for Burns. Brady holds a slight 3.77-to-3.28 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is more accurate with those strikes at 64.78%, to just 56.29% for the Brazilian.

Both are pretty solid on takedowns, as Brady’s average is 3.29, while Burns checks in at 2.24. As far as submission average, Brady is well ahead with a 1.21 mark, to just 0.50 for the veteran.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Burns +154 (bet $100 to win $154) | Brady -184 (bet $184 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -132 | Under +104)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -116 | No -110)

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UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Brady (-184) is a little on the expensive side, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward, so let’s get a little more specific.

The favorite is an absolute beast of a wrestler, and if he can get Burns (+154) to the canvas, it won’t end well for the 38-year-old.

Let’s back BRADY BY SUBMISSION (+1000) on the 7-way method of victory line for a chance to multiply our wagers by 10 times. Taking BRADY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+225) on the 5-way line gives you a few more avenues to a winning ticket, but still at plus-money.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a solid play, as I expect this one to end in a Brady victory and hopefully a submission for a massive payday.

In addition, UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+104) is worth a look at plus-money in the event Brady is aggressive early, getting the underdog to the mat quickly.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 61 odds between Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s bantamweight bout on the main card, Yana Santos and Chelsea Chandler meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Santos vs. Chandler odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Santos (14-8-0) | Chandler (6-2-0)

Santos enters this fight on a 3-bout skid, falling to Karol Rosa last time out via split decision. Before that, Holly Holm defeated Santos by unanimous decision, and she was knocked out in Round 1 against Irene Aldana at UFC 264. Her last win was a unanimous-decision win over Ketlen Vieira Feb. 20, 2021.

For Chandler, she has 3 fights under her belt since arriving at the UFC level. She topped Josiane Nunes last time out via unanimous decision, but fell by way of unanimous decision against Norma Dumont prior to that. In her UFC debut, she dropped Julija Stoliarenko in Round 1 Oct. 1, 2022.

Santos has a 4.16-to-3.45 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and she is much more accurate at 71.03%, to just 57.48% for Chandler. The underdog is slightly better in takedown average and accuracy.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Santos vs. Chandler odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Santos -156 (bet $156 to win $100) | Chandler +132 (bet $100 to win $132)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -380 | Under +270)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -320 | No +230)

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UFC on ESPN 61: Santos vs. Chandler picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SANTOS (-156) is fighting to stay with the promotion, as she cannot afford too many more losses. She needs to pick up the pace — and pick it up quickly.

Facing Chandler (+132) might be the perfect opponent to halt the skid. Santos is an accurate punching machine, and she’ll be able to get the job done against the southpaw.

As far as the method of victory is concerned, SANTOS BY POINTS (+100) at plus-money is a solid value. She has needed the help of the judges to determine a winner in each of her past 2 fights, and Santos has gone the distance in 4 of the past 5 fights and 6 of the previous 8 outings.

Chandler has gone the distance in each of her past 2 fights and 5 of her 8 pro bouts overall.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-380) will cost you nearly 4 times your potential return, and Yes (-320): Will fight go the distance? will set you back 3 times your initial wager.

AVOID both props, as that is just way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 61 odds between Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Jackson (23-6-1) | Mariscal (16-6-0)

Jackson picked up a split-decision win over Alexander Hernandez April 6, halting a 2-bout losing skid. He suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Billy Quarantillo in Aug. 2023, while getting knocked out in Round 2 against Dan Ige Jan. 2023.

Mariscal has won all 3 of his fights since arriving at the UFC level, and he has won 6 straight pro bouts dating back to March 4, 2022. His last fight was a split-decision win against Morgan Charriere April 6, and 2 of his 3 UFC bouts have ended up going the distance.

Jackson stands 4 inches taller than his counterpart and holds a 2-inch reach advantage. Mariscal has a 4.70-to-3.00 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate at 64.77% to just 49.29%. Jackson has a 1.38-to-0.39 submission average advantage.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Jackson +162 (bet $100 to win $162) | Mariscal -194 (bet $194 to win $1000
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -116 | Under -110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -140)

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UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Mariscal (-194) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive straight up on the 2-way line.

JACKSON (+162) is worth a look as a rather moderate underdog. His ground game is good, and Mariscal hasn’t seen an opponent with a wrestling game like his.

If you really want to get crazy with the potential for a big payoff, JACKSON BY SUBMISSION (+550) is worth a roll of the dice. If Jackson can get Mariscal to the mat, it’s not going to go well for the favorite, as he is a puncher and more of a toe-to-toe brawler.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-110) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at most.

We’re looking for this fight to end with a tap, and NO (-140): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is certainly not priced out of line.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 61 odds between Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Tybura (25-8-0) | Spivac (16-4-0)

Tybura suffered a 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Tom Aspinall in the main event in a Fight Night July 22, 2023. He rebounded in the main event against Tai Tuivasa in a 1st-round submission win March 16. Tybura has managed 4 stoppages in the past 7 fights, although he has gone the distance 6 times in the past 10 outings.

This is actually the 2nd meeting at the UFC level between these fighters. Tybura picked up a unanimous-decision victory Feb. 29, 2020.

Spivac, aka the Polar Bear, is looking for the bounceback after getting knocked out in Round 2 by Ciryl Gane in a main event Sept. 2, 2023. That comes on the heels of a Round 1 submission in a main event Feb. 4, 2023. Each of his past 5 fights have finished inside the distance.

The 38-year-old Tybura has an ever-so-slight 3.60-to-3.54 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Spivac has a 62.06% significant strikes accuracy percentage. Spivac also has an impressive 4.56 takedown average while posting a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.51 submission average.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tybura +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Spivac -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -102 | Under -124)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +162 | No -215)

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UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SPIVAC (-156) is a strong play as a moderate favorite in this rematch.

Tybura (+132) won the 1st meeting back in Feb. 2020, but that’s over 4 years ago, and now Tybura is in his upper 30s with a lot of tread on the tires.

Spivac will be trying to get Tybura to the mat early and often, as he is the far more superior grappler.

SPIVAC BY KO/TKO (+195) is worth a look in the “Method of Victory”, as 4 of his past 5 fights have ended via knockout, with 2 wins and 2 losses by way of the method.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-124) is worth a play. Neither of these fighters have been distance fighters, especially lately.

Each of the past 5 fights for Spivac have finished inside the distance, and 3 of the bouts in the span haven’t made it out of Round 1.

For Tybura, each of his past 2 bouts have also ended in Round 1, although 3 of the past 5 fights have gone the distance, so don’t get too carried away.

However, playing No (-215): Will the fight go the distance? is a little on the expensive side, so PASS on that.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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