The UCF Knights (9-4) and Duke Blue Devils (8-4) meet in the Military Bowl Wednesday at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md. Kickoff is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UCF vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
UCF and Duke meet for the 1st time ever on the gridiron.
The Knights have alternated wins and losses in the past 6 bowl games, picking up a 29-17 win over Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl last season. UCF hasn’t faced an ACC opponent in a bowl game since losing 34-27 in the St. Petersburg Bowl to NC State on Dec. 26, 2014.
The transfer portal has been a big story ahead of some of these mid-tier bowl games, and UCF is not immune. LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, second on the team with 37 total tackles with 5 passes defensed and a forced fumble, entered the portal.
The other notable player joining him is WR Ryan O’Keefe, who had a team-high 73 receptions for 725 yards and 5 TDs. The next best receiver, in terms of catches, was WR Javon Baker with 54 grabs.
The Knights split a pair of games against ACC teams in the regular season, losing 20-14 at home against Louisville, while stopping Georgia Tech 27-10. It went 0-2 ATS in 2 games vs. ACC with a pair of Under results.
The Blue Devils are on a 3-game bowl win streak, including its most recent postseason appearance in the 2018 Independence Bowl against Temple, another AAC school.
Duke finished the season with wins in 4 of the final 5 games overall, going 5-1 ATS in the final 6 outings. The Blue Devils won their only meeting against an AAC this season, routing Temple 30-0 in the opener on Sept. 2.
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UCF vs. Duke odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesdat at 9:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UCF +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Duke -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UCF +3.5 (-113) | Duke -3.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 62 (O: -108 | U: -112)
UCF vs. Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
UCF 34, Duke 30
Moneyline
UCF (+145) is worth a shot as short ‘dogs in this game. The Knights lose O’Keefe to the portal, but still have plenty of weapons. This is an offense which rolled up 480.2 total yards per game, 11th in the nation, while rushing for 235.7 yards per game to finish 8th in the country.
Duke (-170) was solid against the rush, allowing just 120.3 yards per game, but the Blue Devils really struggled against the pass, allowing 262.3 yards per game, 109th overall.
Against the spread
UCF +3.5 (-113) is a strong play, especially at 3 and a hook. The Knights have shown an ability to bounce back, going 4-1 ATS in the last 5 following a straight-up loss, and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 following a non-cover.
All of Duke’s -3.5 (-107) ATS trends are very strong, so go lightly. Still, UCF has a potent offense which is going to have the Blue Devils with their hands full.
Over/Under
OVER 62 (-108) is a solid play.
The Over went 4-1 in the final 5 games overall for UCF, while going 8-0 in the previous 8 contests played on field turf.
Duke has cashed the Over in 5 of the last 6 neutral-site affairs, while going 6-1 in the past 7 December appearances. The Blue Devils have also cashed the Over in each of the previous 6 bowl showings.
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