Tag: Twins Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (80-72) and Cincinnati Reds (79-74) meet Wednesday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

Minnesota won 7-0 in Tuesday’s contest vs. Cincinnati, furthering their chances of being the only AL Central representative in the playoffs. With Tuesday’s win the Twins now sit 8 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians as they look win the division for the 3rd time in 5 seasons.

Tuesday’s loss puts the Reds 1 game behind the Chicago Cubs for 2nd-place in the NL Central and a half-game behind the Miami Marlins for the final Wild Card spot. If the playoffs started today, Cincinnati would not be in.

Twins at Reds projected starters

RHP Bailey Ober vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Ober (7-6, 3.67 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 127 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 10-2 road win Friday vs. the Chicago White Sox
  • Career vs. Cincinnati: 0-0, 8.31 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 1 start

Greene (4-6, 4.45 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 12 K/9 in 97 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 5-3 road win Friday vs. the New York Mets
  • First career start vs. Minnesota

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Twins at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:04 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+155) | Reds +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Twins at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 7, Twins 4

Moneyline

LEAN REDS (-115).

This is a tough game to call, but I like the Reds to win here at home as they are fighting for a playoff birth. The Reds have struggled at home this year, with a 37-40 home record, but the Twins are just as bad on the road at 37-40. Cincinnati has also won in Greene’s last 3 starts while the Twins lost in Ober’s lone career start vs. the Reds.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Reds to cover here but at +1.5 (-190) the line is not worth the risk. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9 (-110).

The Over hit the 1st game, the Under in the 2nd game. The Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 Reds-Twins meetings since 2018 and the Over and 5-0-1 in the Reds’ last 6 wins vs. Minnesota since then. The Over also is 4-1 in Ober’s last 5 starts overall.

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Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (79-72) and Cincinnati Reds (79-73) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park Tuesday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 1-0

The Twins dropped the series opener 7-3 Monday. They are 11-9 over the last 20 games and still hold a 7-game lead in the AL Central with 11 to go.

The Reds have won 6 of 8 and are tied with the Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs hold the tiebreaker, though. Chicago is facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, which applies pressure to the Reds facing the 1st-place Twins. Cincinnati is 27-15 in interleague play.

Twins at Reds projected starters

RHP Kenta Maeda vs. RHP Fernando Cruz

Maeda (5-7, 4.50 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 96 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K Thursday against Chicago White Sox
  • 4 career starts vs. Reds: 2-1, 5.06 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 24 K in 21 1/3 IP

Cruz (1-1, 4.05 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 54th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 through 60 IP.

  • Last appearance: 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K on 17 pitches Saturday vs. New York Mets
  • 2023 home/road splits: 1-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 14.3 K/9 in 29 home IP; 0-0, 3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 31 road IP

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Twins at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:27 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Reds +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Twins at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Reds 4

Moneyline

The Reds are at a decent value, but I don’t trust them in a bullpen game. Their ‘pen is 14th in baseball with a 3.90 ERA, and GABP is a bandbox. The Twins have scored 4 or more runs in 7 of 10 games, and I think Maeda will be just good enough to secure the victory.

Take the TWINS (-145).

Run line/Against the spread

The Twins are 40-36 on the RL on the road this season. They have only won 4 of the last 10 against the Reds over the last 5 years, but each of those wins were by 2 or more runs.

Go easy, but I’ll take the TWINS -1.5 (+125) or a HALF-UNIT.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in 7 of 10 for the Twins, and the Reds are 5-4-1 O/U during the same stretch. The Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Over has cashed in Maeda’s last 5 starts.

That’s enough for me to believe. Take the OVER 9.5 (+100).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (79-71) and the Cincinnati Reds (78-73) open a 3-game interleague series at Great American Ball Park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since splitting 4 games in 2021

The Twins picked up 3 wins in a 4-game road series against the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, inching closer to the AL Central title. Minnesota is 7 games clear of the 2nd-place Cleveland Guardians with 12 regular-season games remaining.

The Reds picked up 2 wins in the past 3 games in a road series against the New York Mets over the weekend. Cincinnati is currently a half-game back of the Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot, but the Cubs have a game in hand. The Reds have just 11 games left in the regular season.

Twins at Reds projected starters

RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Connor Phillips

Ryan (10-9, 4.20 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 145 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 3-2 home win vs. the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday
  • 2023 home splits: 4-5, 4.67 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 16 HR, .256 opponent batting average (OBA) in 13 starts

Phillips (0-0, 8.31 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.85 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 8 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road win vs. the Detroit Tigers Wednesday
  • 2023 home splits: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 7-6 home win vs. the Seattle Mariners in his MLB debut Sept. 5

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Twins at Reds odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:34 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -148 (bet $148 to win $100) | Reds +126 (bet $100 to win $126)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+104) | Reds +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Twins at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 7, Reds 4

Moneyline

The TWINS (-148) are a moderate favorite in Monday’s interleague series opener, as the Reds have the shaky rookie Phillips on the hill against the more established Ryan.

Minnesota has picked up 10 wins in the past 15 interleague series games but Cincinnati is also 10-5 in the past 15 outings against the AL. The difference is the starting pitching.

Run line/Against the spread

The TWINS -1.5 (+104) are a decent play at plus money in this interleague road opener.

Minnesota is 6-3 in the past 9 games as a favorite and has covered the run in 3 of the past 4 games when favored.

Cincinnati is just 5-5 in the past 10 games as an underdog and is 6-4 on the run line in those contests.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (-110) is the lean, but go lightly, as that’s a big number.

The Twins have cashed the Over in 4 of the past 5 games overall, scoring 4 or more runs in 5 straight contests.

For the Reds, there is a slight 3-2-1 edge to the Over in the previous 6 outings, while going 4-1 in the past 5 interleague contests.

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Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (45-62) mounted a ninth-inning comeback against the Cincinnati Reds (56-51) in a 7-5 victory Tuesday night. They look to make it two in a row when they take the field Wednesday with a 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Charlie Barnes will be making his second career start.  He tossed 4 2/3 IP allowing 1 ER on 4 H and 1 BB while recording 1 K while taking a loss in his first start.

  • Barnes made 13 starts at Triple-A this season, where he put up a 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 63 2/3 IP.
  • The 25-year-old split the 2019 season between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A and posted a 4.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP across 131 IP.

RHP Luis Castillo (5-10, 4.22 ERA) makes his 23rd start of the season. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 121 2/3 IP.

  • Castillo had a 7.22 ERA through 11 starts at the end of May. His last 11 starts have yielded an outstanding 1.95 ERA with just 4 HR allowed and 73 K in 69 1/3 IP (9.5 K/9).
  • He has a 3.94 ERA and 9.6 K/9 with just 3 HR allowed in 61 2/3 IP in 11 home starts.

Twins at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Reds -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-102) | Reds -1.5 (-122)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Reds 6, Twins 3

Money line (ML)

Castillo has been on quite a roll over the past two months. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a start since late May and has struck out 25 batters in 19 IP across his last three outings.

The Twins come into the game with a 21-32 record on the road and with an inexperienced starting pitcher who wasn’t very dominant in the minors. The Reds should come out on top, but the price here is pretty steep. PASS on the money line and find value elsewhere.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Even factoring in last night’s dramatic win, Minnesota is 5-12 in their last 17 road games with nine of the 12 losses being decided by more than 1 run. They are likely to struggle to get much going against Castillo, who has returned to form following a rocky start to the season.

While the Reds are 27th in wRC+ vs left-handers Barnes isn’t overly imposing and they do rank 3rd in runs per game at home (5.38). Look for the REDS -1.5 (-122) to push enough runs across to cover this spread.

Over/Under (O/U)

Castillo stands a strong chance of shutting down a Minnesota lineup that is now without their best hitter in Nelson Cruz, who was traded to Tampa Bay last week.

The Cincinnati bats should get to Barnes, but given their struggles this season against southpaws it’s doubtful we see a huge offensive explosion from them. UNDER 9.5 (-107) looks like the side to take in this game.

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