Tag: Turnovers

The Honolulu Blueprint: Keys to a Lions victory over the Cowboys in Week 11

The Honolulu Blueprint: Identifying several key strategies the Lions will need to do, in order to be victorious over the Cowboys in Week 11.

If the Detroit Lions (3-5-1) want to shock the world and come away with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys (5-4) in Week 11, they’ll need to follow this week’s Honolulu Blueprint and execute several key strategies.

Let’s take a look at the key components the Lions need to take advantage of in Week 11.

Lean on Jeff Driskel’s strengths

By this point, we all know Matthew Stafford has been ruled out and the Lions will be starting Jeff Driskel for the second consecutive week. Last week, Driskel wasn’t notified he would get the ball until the morning of the game, but this week it’s been clear from Monday, Driskel would start again.

The extra time should afford the Lions the opportunity to prepare a game plan suited to Driskel’s strengths, which are listed below per Lions Wire’s own Jeff Risdon’s evaluation:

  • Very athletic and creative outside the pocket
  • Above-average arm strength and zip on deeper throws
  • Mechanics don’t break down on the move
  • Improved his footwork and developed a more consistent release point that really helped his accuracy
  • Enthusiastic presence on the sideline and in the huddle

The Lions opened last week’s game with a read-option and Driskel gave the ball to J.D. McKissic for a 10-yard run. As the game progressed, Driskel would keep the ball on five runs, amassing a team-leading 37-yards (one more than McKissic). Expect the Lions to continue relying on Driskel’s 4.56 speed to move the ball on the ground.

They also need to test the Cowboys deep, like they did in the clip below, which encompasses all five of Risdon’s positive attributes into one play:

This play was one of only three deep shots (passes over 20 yards) taken by Driskel on the afternoon — and the only one he connected on — but there is enough potential there for the Lions to increase the frequency of plays like this.

Keep hitting the safety valves

When a young quarterback is in trouble he often relies on tight ends and running backs to alleviate pressure. Last week, Driskel leaned on his running backs early and tight ends late, totaling 19 targets, with 14 of them being completed for a collective 100-yards.

Similarly, last week, the Cowboys allowed the Vikings tight ends and running backs to complete 17 of 20 passes for 136 yards, two touchdowns, and a 2-pt conversion.

While the Lions should test the Cowboys secondary with the deep ball, players like McKissic and T.J. Hockenson need to step up and provide Driskel with reliable and consistent options in the passing game.

Time of possession/Fast start

The Dallas Cowboys offense is potent, checking in as Football Outsider’s top DVOA offense, earning the No. 2 rushing and No. 3 passing spots on offense. There’s no doubt the Lions defense will be challenged but the Lions offense can help in two major ways: time of possession and scoring early.

In the Cowboys’ four losses, they lost the time of possession in three of them, and in all four games, they trailed heading into the locker room at halftime:

  • Saints held the ball for 36:04 and led 9-3 at the half
  • Packers 36:43 and led 17-0 at the half
  • Jets only had the ball for 27:57 but got out to a 21-6 at the half
  • Vikings 33:27, ahead 14-0 after 1st quarter and 17-14 at the half

Bottom line: keep the Cowboys’ offense on the sidelines.

Focus on Ezekiel Elliot 1st, Dak Prescott 2nd

Elliot is one of the best running backs in the league and while the Lions have historically had trouble containing him, that shouldn’t deter the Lions from focusing on slowing him down first.

While the Cowboys rushing attack is aggressive and efficient, they failed to break 50 yards rushing in two of their losses (Saints and Vikings), averaging 2.3 yards per attempt in both games.

The Lions run defense has struggled all season, but in two of their last three games, they did not allow a rushing touchdown and held their opponent to 80 (Giants) and 81 yards (Bears) on the ground — with 3.3 and 3.4 yards per attempt average respectively.

If the Lions can build on their recent success, it’ll go a long way to helping them earn a win.

Attack the weakness on the OL

The Cowboys offensive line is one of the best in the NFL and features three first-round picks (Tyron Smith Zack Martin, and Travis Frederick), one of the highest-paid right tackle in the league (La’el Collins, who should’ve been a first-round pick if not for a timely investigation) and a third-round pick in Connor Williams.

Williams, the Cowboys starting left guard, currently has a knee injury and will miss this game. He will be replaced by Xavier Su’a-Filo, and according to Pro Football Focus, it’s a major downgrade — Su’a-Filo has a PFF grade 24.2 points lower than Williams.

Expect the Lions to attack Su’a-Filo with a variety of combinations. Look for the Lions to initially deploy Damon Harrison over him, and when Su’a-Filo gets used to the power, they will shift Trey Flowers inside to try and expose him with athleticism. Additionally, look for Jarrad Davis to attack Su’a-Filo’s A-gap responsibility to keep him guessing.

Be opportunistic

There are only two teams in the NFL who have the same numbers turnovers as takeaways — the Lions and Cowboys both have 12 of each.

Whoever wins this battle will have a big advantage. Look no further than the results from these teams last three games:

  • Lions lost to Bears – lost turnover battle 1-0
  • Lions lost to Raiders – lost turnover battle 2-0
  • Lions beat Giants – won the turnover battle 1-0
  • Cowboys lost to Vikings, lost turnover battle 1-0
  • Cowboys beat Giants, won the turnover battle 3-2
  • Cowboys beat Eagles, won the turnover battle 4-1

It’s not definitive, but win the turnover battle and you have a decisive advantage towards winning the game.

Packers lead NFL in total games without a turnover in 2019

The Packers have done a terrific job protecting the football during the 2019 season.

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The Green Bay Packers entered the bye week on a four-game streak without a turnover, and Matt LaFleur’s team now leads the NFL with seven games without a turnover in 2019.

The Packers are 6-1 when they don’t turn the ball over this season. They rank third in the NFL in total giveaways (7) and second in turnover differential (+9), two highly important metrics for LaFleur.

“It goes back to our players. They do a great job protecting the football,” LaFleur told Packers.com. “Aaron does a great job in decision making. The offensive line does a great job blocking in the run and the pass.”

The Packers’ last turnover was an interception of Aaron Rodgers off a drop from Darrius Shepherd in the fourth quarter of the team’s win over the Detroit Lions on Oct. 14.

LaFleur’s team got through games against the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers without a single giveaway. The Packers and Raiders were the only teams without a turnover between Weeks 7-10, although the Raiders only played three games.

Through 10 games, Rodgers has thrown two interceptions and lost two fumbles, while Shepherd, Aaron Jones and Geronimo Allison have each lost one fumble.

The Packers went 2-1 in their three games with a turnover. They are one of six teams with a winning record in games with at least two turnovers. Overall, NFL teams are 32-81-1 when they have two or more turnovers in a game.

However, NFL teams are 60-24 in games when they don’t have a turnover this season.

Leaders in games without a turnover in 2019:

1. Packers (7, 6-1)
2. Cardinals (6, 3-3)
3. Vikings (5, 4-1)
4. Bills (4, 3-1)
4. Titans (4, 2-2)
4. Raiders (4, 3-1)
4. Ravens (4, 3-1)
4. Redskins (4, 1-3)

Fumbles and ball security sore spots in Seahawks win over 49ers

The Seattle Seahawks were able to escape the San Franciso 49ers Week 10 despite five fumbles – three for losses – Monday night.

The Seahawks were able to head home with a victory Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers, although it wasn’t always pretty. Seattle struggled with ball control throughout the game, posting three lost fumbles for a total of five fumbles throughout the contest.

Wide receiver DK Metcalf and running back Rashaad Penny both turned over the ball but San Francisco was unable to capitalize on the takeaways. Tackle Germain Ifedi, however, originally recovered a Russell Wilson fumble on a play before his own lost ball and had to watch the 49ers score a defensive touchdown as a result.

“We did a terrible job taking care of the football tonight, a miserable job,” coach Pete Carroll told reporters. “I don’t even recognize us when the ball is flopping around like that. We got a lot of work to do. We won’t win if we keep doing this. We have to take care of the football better than that.”

Carroll has always preached ball security but the concepts were lost on Seattle Monday night. For a team with the fewest turnovers in the league last season, it was difficult to watch at times.

There was one shining moment in the turnover battle when center Joey Hunt was able to save a Chris Carson fumble.

“It was a miserable night there, but one of the great plays of the night was Joey Hunt’s fumble recovery,” Carroll said. “You guys don’t make a big deal about that. Joey laid out, slid into it, cut it up just the way he’s supposed to. It was a huge play for us, because we come back and score after that. I think it was, we wound up second and 11 and we still overcame it, so a big play.”

Seattle has a bye week before facing the Eagles Nov. 24 and you bet ball security will be a point of emphasis when the Seahawks return to practice next Monday.

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