Tag: Track Too Tough To Tame

NASCAR Toyota 500 at Darlington odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Wednesday’s Toyota 500 at Darlington Raceway sports betting odds and lines, with NASCAR analysis, picks and tips.

The NASCAR Cup Series races at Darlington Raceway Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET for the Toyota 500. Below, we analyze the Toyota 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Toyota 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday, May 19 at 7:25 a.m. ET.

The NASCAR Cup Series guys returned to action last Sunday, with Stewart-Haas Racing driver Kevin Harvick (+400) coming away with the checkered flag, his 50th win at the Cup level. He enters this one as the chalk, but is he the driver to beat?

  • There’s no qualifying for Wednesday’s 500 as the starting lineup is set using the finishing order from Sunday’s run. However, positions 1-20 are inverted, so Harvick starts 20th and Ryan Preece (+20000) will be on the pole after he finished 20th Sunday.
  • Harvick started sixth Sunday, making it six Darlington races in a row where the winner started sixth or better. The last pole winner was Harvick in the 2014 Bojangles Southern 500.
  • Joe Gibbs Racing driver Erik Jones (+1800) finished eighth Sunday. He has finished eighth or better in all four of his starts at the South Carolina track.
  • Penske Racing driver Brad Keselowski (+900) was second to Harvick’s 159 laps led Sunday with 80. Hendrick Motorsports driver Alex Bowman (+800), who finished second, was third in laps lead with 41.

Who is going to win the Toyota 500?

JGR’s Kyle Busch (+700) stumbled to a 26th-place finish in Sunday’s race, a shocking result considering he had posted finishes of seventh or better in seven of his previous eight starts at the “Track Too Tough to Tame.” Despite Sunday’s poor showing, BUSCH IS A SOLID PLAY.

Busch is second among active drivers with 716 laps led across 16 career starts at Darlington, with Harvick leading the way with 740 laps led across 24 starts. However, Busch’s average laps led per start is much better at 44.75 to Harvick’s 30.83.

Busch’s teammate DENNY HAMLIN (+800) posted a fifth-place finish Sunday. He now has two wins, eight top-5 finishes and 12 top-10 showings with 562 laps led across 15 career Darlington starts with a 7.6 Average-Finish Position (AFP). He’ll start 16th Wednesday, and is ALWAYS A WISE PICK at this track.

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Joey Logano (+1100) is an intriguing pick for Wednesday. He starts third behind long shots Preece and Ty Dillon (+25000), but is clearly the most proven driver in the front two rows – Clint Bowyer (+3000) starts in the 4 spot. While Logano has never won at Darlington, he has a 16.6 AFP with three top-5 showings and five top-10 finishes and 103 laps led.

Darlington Raceway long-shot bets

Looking to long shots, Preece and Dillon are obvious picks because of their advantageous starting spots, but will it matter? In four career starts at Darlington, the younger Dillon brother has an AFP of just 18.3, while Preece finished 20th Sunday and 22nd in his only previous start at Darlington last season. Go very, very lightly on these two, if at all.

The better bet might be TYLER REDDICK (+5000). He surprised with a seventh-place run Sunday in his Cup debut at Darlington. As such, his odds are much shorter than they might normally be, but he is still a pretty strong value. JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK (+15000) also might be worth a roll of the dice after a stupendous ninth-place run Sunday.

Want action on this race? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington Raceway, with NASCAR betting odds, picks and best bets.

Say goodbye to those virtual races, as the NASCAR Cup Series returns for real at Darlington Raceway Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the betting odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

NASCAR changes: What you need to know

Sunday’s return to action after the pause due to COVID-19 will not have any practice sessions or qualifying. In fact, there will be no practice sessions for any May race, and qualifying will only be held for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte May 24. Here is what we know:

  • Positions 1 through 12 to be determined by a random draw from charter teams in those positions in team owner points
  • Positions 13-24 to be determined by a random draw among charter teams in those positions in owner points
  • Positions 25-36 to be determined by a random draw among charter teams in those positions in owner points
  • Positions 37-40 to be filled out by open, non-chartered teams in order of owner points

NASCAR standings & Darlington odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, May 13 at 1:25 a.m. ET.

A quick perusal of the current standings after four starts shows Stewart-Haas Racing’s (SHR’s) Kevin Harvick (+600 for Sunday’s Darlington race) sitting in first, one point ahead of Penske Racing’s Joey Logano (+750). Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott (+850), Alex Bowman (+1300) and Jimmie Johnson (+2000) are in third through fifth, respectively, while Penske’s Ryan Blaney (+2200) sits sixth. SHR’s Aric Almirola (+5000) is tied for seventh with Kyle Larson (more on him below). Matt DiBenedetto (+5000) of Wood Brothers is ninth, while Penske’s Brad Keselowski (+850) rounds out the top 10.

As for Larson, he was released by Chip Ganassi Racing and indefinitely suspended by NASCAR for uttering a racial slur during a live virtual racing broadcast during the COVID-19 pause. While he has completed a mandated sensitivity training course, Matt Kenseth (+2000) is coming out of retirement to join CGR in the No. 42 car.

Who is going to win Sunday at Darlington Raceway?

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch (+500) is noticeably absent from the top 10 in the standings, but he is actually listed as the race favorite due to his recent run of success at the track. While he hasn’t won in the past 10 stops, he has been 11th or better in each of those starts.

Busch has finished seventh or better in eight of his past 10 starts at Darlington, posting a stellar 11.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in his 15 overall runs at the South Carolina track.

Johnson actually leads all active drivers with three wins at “The Lady In Black,” and he has a 12.1 AFP in 21 starts with nine finishes inside the top 5. He has also led 554 laps, fourth-most of any driver. Busch actually leads with 716 laps led, followed by Harvick (581) and Denny Hamlin (+700), another driver currently outside of the top 10 in standings. That could change in a hurry, however.

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Martin Truex Jr. (+800) is also flying a bit under the radar – he won this race in 2016, followed by his JGR teammate Hamlin in 2017. So, definitely do not base your wagering decisions on starting position alone. The past two winners have come from a starting position of 15th and 13th, and the last five winners have been from eighth or lower in the starting grid, so the pole hasn’t amounted to much lately.

Darlington Raceway long-shot bets

If you’re looking to back a long shot, why not Kenseth? He is a rather moderate underdog in his return to the track. Kenseth won at Darlington as recently as the 2013 season, and raced a Cup car in 2018, albeit a 25th-place fun. He has five top-10 starts in his past seven Darlington runs, including the 2013 win, so how amazing of a story would it be if he won Sunday?

SHR’s Clint Bowyer (+5000) has been a disaster at Darlington in recent years, posting a 40th-place run in 2017, a 36th-place finish in 2018 before running sixth last season. He is a great driver, but a long shot for a reason, as he has found the title “Track Too Tough To Tame” apropos. In 14 career Darlington starts, he has a dismal 21.6 AFP with just two top-10 showings and only 17 laps led. Still, a driver of his caliber at this price is worth a small-unit bet, especially with all of the chaos and uncertainty heading into the season restart.

Want action on this race? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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