Tag: Toronto Maple Leafs betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Wild (1-0-0) and Toronto Maple Leafs (1-0-0) meet Saturday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Wild vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Wild upended the Florida Panthers 2-0 behind Filip Gustavsson in the team’s opener, ending a 5-game losing streak to the Cats in the process. Minnesota had lost 3 straight home games to Florida, too.

The Maple Leafs were involved in a wild one in the team’s opener Wednesday, nipping the rival Montreal Canadiens 6-5 in a shootout. Auston Matthews notched the hat trick, helping the Leafs erase a 5-3 deficit midway through the 3rd period.

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Wild at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:07 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Wild +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Maple Leafs -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Wild +1.5 (-160) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Wild at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Marc-Andre Fleury (24-16-4, 2.85 GAA, .908 SV%, 2 SO in 2022-23) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO in 2022-23)

Fleury was not the starter on Opening Night, as that honor went to Gustavsson. The latter went on to post the shutout against the visiting Panthers. Fleury faced the Leafs last season, allowing 4 goals on 28 shots in a 4-3 home loss on Nov. 25, 2022.

Samsonov was super shaky in Wednesday’s game against Montreal. Head coach Sheldon Keefe will go right back to the Russian tendy for this one. He was in the crease for a 2-1 OT win in Toronto against the Wild on Feb. 24 last season, stopping 24 of the 25 shots he faced.

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Wild at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Wild 4, Maple Leafs 3

Moneyline

The WILD (+145) are worth a look as moderate underdogs on the road.

Minnesota looked very good shutting down the high-octane Florida Panthers offensive attack in the Twin Cities. The Maple Leafs (-175) are too expensive, and their defense and goaltending was awfully shoddy in the opener against a subpar Habs side.

Puck line/Against the spread

If you can’t bring yourself to bet them straight up, the WILD +1.5 (-160) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance.

Both meetings last season were won by the Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135), but each contest was decided by a single goal, including Toronto’s OT win at home on Feb. 24, 2023.

Over/Under

OVER 6.5 (-110) is a bit risky, so be careful. Both of these teams had completely different experiences in their opener. Minnesota won with timely offense, tremendous defense and lockdown goaltending, while Toronto won a wild, fire-wagon hockey game with plenty of offense, zero defense and shoddy goaltending. We won’t have a total of just 2 goals, and we won’t have a total of 11, either.

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Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs open the 2023-24 National Hockey League regular season Wednesday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Canadiens will have a new look after parting with plenty of veterans, while re-signing their younger core. The defense looks to be a weak spot, and Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault figure to guard the cage, with Carey Price no longer in the crease.

The Maple Leafs made some big moves to strengthen the team, adding Tyler Bertuzzi to the top scoring line, while bringing in Max Domi, Martin Jones, John Klingberg and Ryan Reaves to provide depth across the board.

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Canadiens at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:44 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Canadiens +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Maple Leafs -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Canadiens +1.5 (+100) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Canadiens at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Jake Allen (15-24-3, 3.55 GAA, .891 SV%, 1 SO – 2022-23) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV% , 4 SO)

Allen will get 1st crack at the cage in the opener, and the Leafs might be licking their chops to get at him. The veteran was just 1-1-0 with a 4.01 GAA and .890 SV% in 2 starts against the Leafs last season, including a 5-1 loss on Feb. 18, allowing 5 goals on 41 shots.

Samsonov resurrected his career last season in T-Dot after getting jettisoned by the Capitals. He went 19-3-0 with a 1.98 GAA and .927 SV% with 2 SO in 23 games at home last season, and he went 1-0-1 with a 1.99 GAA and .923 SV% in 2 starts against the Habs.

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Canadiens at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 5, Canadiens 2

Moneyline

The Maple Leafs (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, and that’s just too risky, especially in the opener.

Toronto “should” be able to easily push past an undermanned Montreal team, but that isn’t always the case when these Original 6 rivals get together. While the Habs have dropped 4 straight in Toronto, and the home team is 8-0 in the past 8 meetings overall, the Leafs are just too risky.

The Habs actually hold a 6-4 advantage in the previous 10 meetings, too, despite a perceived lack of talent compared to the higher-priced Leafs.

AVOID.

Puck line/Against the spread

The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (-120) are a better value laying the goal and a half on the puck line.

In Toronto’s 2 home games against Montreal last season, it outscored the Habs by a 12-2 count, easily covering the puck line in a pair of games as a heavy favorite. Still, be careful, as a favorite of -200 or greater last season, Toronto was just 2-2 straight up against Montreal, so go lightly.

Over/Under

OVER 6.5 (-120) is also worth playing lightly, but be careful. Allen is very giving when it comes to facing the Leafs, especially in Toronto.

Be careful, though, as the Habs have a decent top scoring line, but things drop off precipitously as you go down the lines.

The Under is also 4-1-1 in the past 6 meetings, and 7-2-1 in the past 10 in the series, although Toronto took care of the Over on its own in the most recent meeting to close out last regular season.

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Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 odds and lines, with expert NHL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 5 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals series Friday. The Panthers lead the series 3-1. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Maple Leafs posted a 2-1 win in Game 4 at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise on Wednesday, staving off elimination for the time being.

Even more surprising, rookie Joseph Woll made his NHL postseason starting debut, kicking aside 24 of the 25 shots he faced for his 1st playoff win. Now, can he do it again? Ilya Samsonov left Game 3 due to an upper-body injury, and he is a question mark for Game 5.

The Panthers were on the other end of a 3-1 series against the Boston Bruins in the 1st round before rattling off 3 straight wins. Florida made history, eliminating the President’s Trophy winner from the regular season. Now, Florida is looking to avoid becoming the 5th team in NHL playoff history to blow a 3-0 series lead.

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Panthers at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:21 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Panthers +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Maple Leafs -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Panthers +1.5 (-165) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Panthers at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky (24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO – regular season) vs. Joseph Woll (6-1-0, 2.16 GAA, .932 SV% – regular season)

Bobrovsky allowed just 23 of 25 shots in Game 4, but he was on the short end to halt a 6-game winning streak. He wasn’t bad, allowing just a power-play goal to William Nylander at 3:29 of the 2nd period, and an even-strength goal to Mitchell Marner at 10:03 of the 3rd.

Woll was successful in his 1st NHL postseason start, saving 24 of the 25 shots he faced. He was staked to a 2-0 lead, and the only goal he allowed came off the stick of Sam Reinhart on a power play. He got a piece of the shot, but the puck just trickled in over the line for Florida’s lone goal.

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Panthers at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 3, Panthers 2

Moneyline

The Maple Leafs (-175) are a little on the expensive side in Game 5, and I can’t trust a team which has lost both games on home ice so far in this series. Yes, Toronto has a little momentum after staving off elimination in Game 4, but they still have a rookie goalie making his 1st-ever home playoff start. The pressure has been ratcheted up after playing with little expectations last time out.

PASS.

Puck line/Against the spread

The PANTHERS +1.5 (-165) are not priced out of line if you want a little insurance and don’t trust Florida straight up. The Panthers are 2-0 in the first 2 skates at Scotiabank Arena in this series, while winning 5 straight games on the road in this postseason since dropping Game 1 in Boston.

Still, I can’t pick Florida on the moneyline, either, as they’re due for a road setback. However, this should be another 1-goal game. The last 3 games have been decided by a single goal, while 4 of the last 5 games have been 1-goal games, too.

Over/Under

The UNDER 6.5 (+100) is a value play in Game 5. We have had the Under cash in 4 straight games in this series, and there is no reason to get away from it now.

Woll turned heads with a tremendous outing in Game 4, and Bobrovsky has allowed exactly 2 goals in each of the 4 games in this series. At even-money, this is a tremendous wager.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers Game 4 odds and lines, with expert NHL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet in Game 4 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals series Wednesday. The Panthers lead the series 3-0. Puck drop from FLA Live Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Panthers picked up the 3-2 overtime victory Sunday in Sunrise, pushing the Maple Leafs to the verge of being swept.

The Maple Leafs got off to a quick start, taking a 1-0 lead thanks to a 1st-period goal by C Sam Lafferty, and that’s how things ended up after the first 20 minutes.

While things were going well for the Leafs on the scoreboard, the Leafs lost G Ilya Samsonov to an upper-body injury due to a friendly fire incident in a collision with D Luke Schenn. Samsonov was unable to return and will miss Game 4. G Joseph Woll was forced into just the 2nd playoff appearance of his career and will make his 1st postseason start Wednesday.

The Panthers came alive in the 2nd period, as LW Anthony Duclair squared things up with a power-play goal at 2:36. Toronto D Erik Gustaffsson notched his 1st playoff goal at 7:32 to give the Maple Leafs a 2-1 lead but C Carter Verhaeghe leveled the score at 2-2 just under 5 minutes later. Toronto was able to hang on in a scoreless 3rd period to force OT.

C Sam Reinhart scored on a wraparound at 3:02 of the extra session, going 5-hole on Woll and pushing the Leafs to one loss away from elimination.

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Maple Leafs at Panthers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Panthers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+195) | Panthers +1.5 (-250)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Maple Leafs at Panthers projected goalies

Joseph Woll (6-1-0, 2.16 GAA, .932 SV% – regular season) vs. Sergei Bobrovsky (24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO – regular season)

Woll will make his 3rd postseason appearance and the 1st playoff start of his career. He is 0-1-0 with a 3.85 GAA and .846 SV% in 2 relief appearances in the postseason to date.

Bobrovsky has helped the Panthers to 5 consecutive victories and is now 6-1-0 with a 3.13 GAA and .909 SV% in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance this postseason. He has allowed just 2 goals in each of the first 3 games in this series.

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Maple Leafs at Panthers picks and predictions

Prediction

Panthers 5, Maple Leafs 2

Moneyline

The PANTHERS (+100) are worth playing on home ice at even money.

It’s rather curious that the Maple Leafs are favored, especially with Samsonov out and Woll making his 1st-ever postseason start.

The Maple Leafs have lost 5 straight in the Conference Semifinals round, and confidence is not high that Toronto is going to break that losing skid on Wednesday.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Panthers +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return for a little insurance, and that’s just not worth pursuing. There is no value in playing Florida as a standalone bet or even as part of a multi-team parlay on the puck line. The Panthers have been red-hot, and the Maple Leafs just cannot be trusted. If you like Florida, play it straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-130) is worth a look.

The driving force of an Over play is an inexperienced goalie playing for a team that is down 0-3 in this series. If Woll allows an early goal or 2, this thing could snowball in a hurry.

While the Under has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these teams, including the first 3 in this series, the money should be on the Over due to the goalie factor.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers Game 3 odds and lines, with expert NHL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet in Game 3 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals series Sunday. The Panthers lead the series 2-0. Puck drop from FLA Live Arena is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Panthers have been on fire in this series, putting the Maple Leafs in an 0-2 series hole before the series shifts to Sunrise for the next 2 games.

Florida opened the series with a 4-2 road win in Game 1, and it was 0-for-1 on the power play in that one. Of course, Toronto went 0-for-4 on the man advantage. The Panthers were more physical, though, posting 47 hits to just 36 for the Leafs.

In Game 2, the Leafs posted a decisive 37-17 margin in faceoffs won, and it brought the physicality with 48 hits to 42 for the Panthers. The Leafs even had a power-play goal, going 1-for-3, while the Panthers are 0-for-2 on the man advantage in the series. Still, Toronto just couldn’t get out of its own way on offense, didn’t screen the tendy enough, and couldn’t create high-danger scoring chances.

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Maple Leafs at Panthers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Panthers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+180) | Panthers +1.5 (-225)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Maple Leafs at Panthers projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Sergei Bobrovsky (24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO – regular season)

Samsonov has been good, but not great in the 1st 2 games. However, he hasn’t been the issue of why the Leafs were dropped in back-to-back games on home ice. He allowed 7 goals on 55 shots, and held the team in there in the 3rd period of Game 2.

Bobrovsky has been just a little better than his counterpart, and he kicked aside 34 of the 36 shots he faced in Game 2 for the win. He is now 5-1-0 with a 3.33 GAA and .908 SV% in 6 postseason starts and 7 playoff appearances.

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Maple Leafs at Panthers picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Panthers 3

Moneyline

The MAPLE LEAFS (-130) are a surprising favorite in Game 3, as it looks to make this a series and avoid a devastating 0-3 series hole.

Toronto stepped up its game last time out, both in terms of physicality and its work at the faceoff dot. This should be a high-scoring game, but Toronto will get it done with its backs against the wall, as the road team remains perfect in the series.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Panthers +1.5 (-225) will cost you over 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive for my liking. If you like Florida, just play it straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-135) is quite a bit pricey, but it’s the play. Both Bob and Samsonov are allowing north of 3 goals per game in these playoffs, so there is plenty of opportunity for total bettors wanting to go high.

We’ve seen the Under cash in each of the 1st 2 in this series, but I think we see a 3-3 game in regulation, with the deciding goal coming in overtime.

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Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 2 odds and lines, with expert NHL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 2 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals series Thursday. The Panthers lead the series 1-0. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Panthers doubled up the Maple Leafs in Game 1 in a 4-2 victory at Scotiabank Arena as the Under (6.5) just came through.

Florida got off to a good start when Nick Cousins opened the scoring with the only goal of the 1st period. Sam Bennett added to the lead at 7:58 of the 2nd period, before Matthew Knies responded just 11 seconds later to slice the lead in half.

At 2-1, Michael Bunting scored his 1st of the playoffs to level the game. The good times lasted less than 3 minutes, though, as Carter Verhaeghe scored his 11th career postseason goal at 17:47 of the second period. Not only did that goal give him the most in Florida’s postseason history, but it stood up as the game-winning goal. Brandon Montour tacked on an insurance marker at 12:24 of the 3rd period.

The Leafs pulled the tendy with over 3 minutes to go, but there was no goal with an extra attacker, nor did Over bettors benefit from an empty-net goal by the Panthers.

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Panthers at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:13 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Panthers +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Maple Leafs -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Panthers +1.5 (-160) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +110)

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Panthers at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky (24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO – regular season) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Bobrovsky allowed just 2 goals on 36 shots in the series opener win. He has now won 4 consecutive starts after suffering a setback in Game 4, his 1st start of the postseason. He had allowed 3 or more goals in each of the previous 4 outings, too.

Samsonov was on the short end of a 4-2 setback, and he coughed up 4 goals on 28 shots. He is now 0-2 with a 6.17 GAA and .825 SV% in his 2 Game 1 appearances in the playoffs. The good news is that he is 4-1 with a 2.42 GAA and .919 SV% in his other 5 postseason appearances.

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Panthers at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 5, Panthers 3

Moneyline

The Maple Leafs (-185) are a little on the pricey side for Game 2, especially since they laid a giant egg in the series opener on home ice for the 2nd consecutive series.

My personal limit is -180 for a standalone moneyline bet. There is just no value betting heavy favorites at this mark, or any higher.

PASS, and look to the puck line instead.

Puck line/Against the spread

The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+135) should show up with a lot more urgency in Game 2, which will be a must-win situation on home ice. Toronto cannot afford to go into an 0-2 hole before the series shifts to South Florida.

It responded with a 7-2 win in Game 2 against Tampa Bay after an embarrassing Game 1 setback. I expect the Maple Leafs to respond in similar fashion.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-130) is a little on the expensive side, but it might be the best play on the board in Game 2.

We had a total of 6 goals on the board midway through the 3rd period in Game 1, and with an extended period of time with an extra attacker, and an empty net for the Leafs, we should have gotten a 7th goal either way. It never came into fruition, and Over bettors were left scratching their heads.

The Over is still 10-5-1 in the past 16 meetings in this series, while going 5-2-1 in the previous 8 encounters in T-Dot.

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Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 1 odds and lines, with expert NHL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 1 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals series Tuesday. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Panthers erased a 3-1 series deficit in the Conference Quarterfinals to stun the top overall seed Boston Bruins in 7 games. Florida won a wild 4-3 overtime game at TD Garden on Sunday, and the Panthers have scored 15 goals across the past 3 games. The Over has cashed in 4 in a row for Florida.

LW Matthew Tkachuk and D Brandon Montour finished the opening round tied with 5 goals while Tkachuk added 6 assists to lead with 11 points. Montour had 2 of the team’s 5 power-play goals against the Bruins.

The Maple Leafs have home-ice advantage in this series, but Toronto is just 1-2 in 3 home playoff games and was 3-0 in 3 overtime victories on the road against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Toronto won 3 of the 4 regular-season meetings against Florida, with 3 of the games going to overtime. Its only loss in the series was on March 29 at Scotiabank Arena in OT. The Over/Under split in the 4 meetings, with the Under cashing in each of the past 2 battles.

RW Mitchell Marner posted 2 goals with a team-best 11 points and a plus-9 rating in the first round, and he led the team with 4 power-play points (1 G, 3 A). C Auston Matthews notched a team-best 5 goals in the first round.

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Panthers at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:57 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Panthers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Maple Leafs -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Panthers +1.5 (-185) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Panthers at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky (24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO – regular season) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Panthers coach Paul Maurice switched gears after Game 3 in the Boston series, benching G Alex Lyon in favor of Bobrovsky. Bob made a relief appearance in Game 3, and he started the final 4 games, going 3-1-0 with a 3.94 GAA and .891 SV% in his 4 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Samsonov went 4-2-0 with a 3.14 GAA and .900 SV% in the 6-game series win against the Tampa Bay Lightning, with 3 of the final 4 games going to OT (all victories). He saved his best for last, kicking aside 31 of the 32 shots he faced in Game 6 in Tampa.

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Panthers at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Panthers 3

Moneyline

The MAPLE LEAFS (-160) are moderate favorites, and a little pricey considering the Panthers are steaming in with a lot of confidence.

However, Toronto enters this game brimming with confidence too, as it enters off its first playoff series win since 2004.

Florida has lost 4 straight games in the Conference Semifinals round and is just 2-9 in the past 11 trips to Toronto.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Panthers +1.5 (-185) are just a little too expensive for my liking. I am just not feeling Florida in Game 1, as I think it might have a little bit of a hangover after the emotional series clincher in Boston on Sunday. Plus, the home team is 15-5 in the past 20 meetings between these clubs.

While 3 of the 4 regular-season meetings went to overtime and thus decided by a single goal, you can’t risk nearly 2 times your potential return for some insurance.

PASS.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-115) is worth a look in this series opener.

Both of these teams brought the offense in Round 1, as the Panthers posted 25 goals in the final 6 games of their series with the Bruins and allowed 3 or more goals in each of the 7 outings. The Over cashed in the final 4 games and 5 of the final 6 in the round.

The Leafs scored 23 goals and allowed 21 goals in their 6-game series with the Lightning. The Over cashed in the first 4 games of the series before defense took over in Games 5 and 6.

The Over is 10-4-1 in the past 15 meetings between the Panthers and Leafs, including 5-1-1 in the past 7 battles in Toronto.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 odds and lines, with expert NHL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals Saturday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 3-2. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Maple Leafs had a chance to put this series to bed in Game 5 in Toronto, and in typical Leafs fashion, Toronto wet that bed. It is now 0-10 in the past 10 elimination games when it has had a chance to advance. The Leafs still haven’t won a series since 2004.

The Lightning had been skidding hard, losing 3 straight games in this series since a dominant Game 1 victory (7-3, March 18). Tampa Bay dropped both Game 3 (4-3 in OT, Saturday) and Game 4 (5-4 in OT, Monday) on home ice in this series.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Lightning -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) | Lightning -1.5 (+220)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Samsonov allowed 3 goals on 37 shots in Game 5 in Toronto, and he has now allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of the 5 games in this series, going 3-2-0 with a 3.62 GAA and .886 SV%.

Vasilevskiy easily had the best outing of his series in Game 5, allowing just 2 goals on 30 shots. Despite the win, he is still just 2-3-0 with a 3.90 GAA and .870 SV% in 5 games. He has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 of the previous 4 outings.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 3, Maple Leafs 2

Moneyline

The LIGHTNING (-110) are a solid play on home ice, as Tampa Bay isn’t going 0-3 at Amalie Arena in these playoffs.

The intensity and pressure has been ratcheted up on the Maple Leafs (-110), who are now 0-10 in the past 10 elimination games. There is a lot of outside noise about how Toronto cannot close out a series and get over the hump. If Toronto allows a quick goal in the first period, this could be a lopsided win for the home side.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s just not enough value and too much risk. There is no reason to make a play like that, whether it’s a standalone wager or part of a multi-pick parlay.

PASS.

Over/Under

The UNDER 6.5 (-110) is the lean in Game 6.

We saw our first Under result of the series in Game 5, and we’ll likely see the scoring opportunities dry up more as the intensity is at an all-time high. Tampa Bay doesn’t want to gamble too much, potentially setting up a Toronto breakaway, and the Leafs are going to be careful not trying to let the Lightning tie this one up for a decisive Game 7. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 2-2 game in regulation, with an overtime winner.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals on Thursday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 3-1. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Lightning suffered back-to-back overtime losses on home ice in Game 3 (4-3, Saturday) and Game 4 (5-4, Monday) as the Maple Leafs have pushed Tampa Bay to the brink.

Tampa Bay held a 4-1 lead in Game 4 heading into the 3rd period, but Toronto got 2 goals from C Auston Matthews, including a power play marker, and D Morgan Rielly tied the game 4-4, helping to force overtime. C Alex Kerfoot was the hero in the extra session, taking advantage of a tripping call on Lightning D Mikhail Sergachev.

The Maple Leafs are looking to win their first playoff series since 2004. The last time they led a series 3-1 was in 2021 when they fell on home ice in Game 5 in overtime against the Montreal Canadiens en route to dropping the series.

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Lightning at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Lightning +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Maple Leafs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-210) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Lightning at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Vasilevskiy couldn’t hold a 4-1 lead in Game 4, allowing Matthews to get him twice, Rielly to tie it up, and Kerfoot to beat him in overtime. Vassy is just 1-3-0 with a 4.33 GAA and .856 SV% through the first 4 games, which is easily his worst playoff performance since 2019.

Samsonov turned aside 27 of the 31 shots he faced in Game 4. While he has 3 wins in 4 starts, he has a subpar 3.72 GAA and .876 SV% in this series. G Matt Murray (concussion) has resumed practicing, and if Samsonov continues to be rather mediocre, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Murray at some point soon.

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Lightning at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

Moneyline

The LIGHTNING (+130) are worth a look, as you need to pick against the Maple Leafs until they prove they can win an elimination game. Toronto has lost its last 9 elimination games when it has had a chance to advance.

Carolina and Boston had chances to close out a series in the past couple of days on home ice, only to suffer disappointment. I think Tampa Bay is going to join the club and force this series back to Central Florida.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Lightning +1.5 (-210) will cost you over 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not enough reward. Just play the Lightning straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-115) is the play again in Game 5.

We have had 9 or more goals in 3 of the first 4 games in this series, with the Over cashing in each matchup. The Over has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these clubs dating back to the final regular-season meeting on April 11.

There has been an average of 8.8 goals per game in this series, and we should see another high-scoring affair in Hogtown.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning square off in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals on Monday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 2-1. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Maple Leafs regained home-ice advantage in Game 3, outlasting the Lightning in overtime on Saturday by a 4-3 score. Morgan Rielly scored the game-winner in OT. He is public enemy No. 1 in Tampa, not only for his GWG, but after what some fans saw as a questionable hit along the boards on Brayden Point.

The hit led to a donnybrook, which included the 1st-ever fight for Auston Matthews, as he took on Steven Stamkos. Nikita Kucherov and Ryan O’Reilly were also involved in a fracas.

The good news for the Lightning is that defenseman Victor Hedman was able to return in Game 3 after missing the last 5 periods of the series after an early undisclosed injury in Game 1.

Defenseman Erik Cernak remains sidelined, and he is question mark for Game 4 after the hit which led to a match penalty for Michael Bunting in Game 1. Bunting will serve the final 3-game of his suspension Monday.

Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner posted 2 assists in Game 3, and he is now up to 2 goals and 6 assists in the 1st 3 games of the series. He has multi-point games in each contest in the series. If you feel that will continue, he is listed at +140 to go Over 1.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook, while Under -1.5 points is a rather hefty -190.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:43 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Lightning -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200) | Lightning +1.5 (-250)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Stream the NHL all season on ESPN+, with your team’s out-of-market games, exclusive games, originals and more. Get ESPN+ now!

Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Samsonov coughed up 6 goals on 29 shots in Game 1, and he was hung out to dry frequently with several penalties leading to power-play opportunities (and goals) for the Lightning. He has tightened up in the last 2 games, both wins, stopping 56 of 61 shots while the offense has provided 11 goals of support.

Vasilevskiy yielded just 3 goals on 31 shots in the series opener, and 2 of those goals were on the man advantage, with another late in garbage time. He played well in Game 1. In the last 2 games, Vasilevskiy has allowed 11 goals on just 64 shots, good for just an .828 SV%.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 3

Moneyline

The LIGHTNING (-105) are the play in Game 4, as Tampa Bay looks for the bounce back.

The Maple Leafs (-115) have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, while the favorite is 7-3 in the last 10 in this series. So you’ll be going against the grain a little here. However, this is also a Toronto team which hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004, and it hasn’t won a Stanley Cup since 1967. It has a lot of hockey bad juju working against it, and while that might not sound like a good betting strategy to some, are you betting against the hockey gods? It hasn’t worked in over a half century for the Leafs.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Lightning +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward. Playing huge lines like that is just not a sound wagering strategy.

PASS.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-105) is the play yet again in Game 4.

The Over has cashed in each of the 1st 3 games of the series, and 9 straight meetings at Amalie Arena, so why stop now? The Over is also a healthy 13-3 in the previous 16 battles between these teams.

In addition, the Over has cashed at an 8-1 clip in the last 9 conference quarterfinals games for the Leafs, while also going 8-1 in the last 9 in the round for the Lightning. Keep going high on the total until further notice.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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