The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals Saturday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 3-2. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Maple Leafs had a chance to put this series to bed in Game 5 in Toronto, and in typical Leafs fashion, Toronto wet that bed. It is now 0-10 in the past 10 elimination games when it has had a chance to advance. The Leafs still haven’t won a series since 2004.
The Lightning had been skidding hard, losing 3 straight games in this series since a dominant Game 1 victory (7-3, March 18). Tampa Bay dropped both Game 3 (4-3 in OT, Saturday) and Game 4 (5-4 in OT, Monday) on home ice in this series.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Lightning -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) | Lightning -1.5 (+220)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies
Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)
Samsonov allowed 3 goals on 37 shots in Game 5 in Toronto, and he has now allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of the 5 games in this series, going 3-2-0 with a 3.62 GAA and .886 SV%.
Vasilevskiy easily had the best outing of his series in Game 5, allowing just 2 goals on 30 shots. Despite the win, he is still just 2-3-0 with a 3.90 GAA and .870 SV% in 5 games. He has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 of the previous 4 outings.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions
Prediction
Lightning 3, Maple Leafs 2
Moneyline
The LIGHTNING (-110) are a solid play on home ice, as Tampa Bay isn’t going 0-3 at Amalie Arena in these playoffs.
The intensity and pressure has been ratcheted up on the Maple Leafs (-110), who are now 0-10 in the past 10 elimination games. There is a lot of outside noise about how Toronto cannot close out a series and get over the hump. If Toronto allows a quick goal in the first period, this could be a lopsided win for the home side.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s just not enough value and too much risk. There is no reason to make a play like that, whether it’s a standalone wager or part of a multi-pick parlay.
PASS.
Over/Under
The UNDER 6.5 (-110) is the lean in Game 6.
We saw our first Under result of the series in Game 5, and we’ll likely see the scoring opportunities dry up more as the intensity is at an all-time high. Tampa Bay doesn’t want to gamble too much, potentially setting up a Toronto breakaway, and the Leafs are going to be careful not trying to let the Lightning tie this one up for a decisive Game 7. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 2-2 game in regulation, with an overtime winner.
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