The Boston Red Sox (38-25) host the rival Toronto Blue Jays (31-29) for a four-game set beginning Friday. First pitch at Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Blue Jays RHP Ross Stripling (2-3, 4.71 ERA) makes his ninth start and 10th appearance. He owns a 1.41 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 over 42 IP.
- Allowing career-worst rates of hard contact and fly balls
- Has shown improvement over his last 17 IP (two starts, one relief appearance) with 2 ER and 14 K while going 2-0
Red Sox RHP Garrett Richards (4-4, 3.88 ERA) makes his 13th start, which will be his most since 2018. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 over 65 innings.
- 1-1 in two starts against the Jays this season with a 4.76 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over 11 1/3 IP
- 1-3 with a 6.38 ERA and .819 opponent OPS through four starts at Fenway Park this year
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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:09 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Red Sox -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-160) | Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
The BLUE JAYS (+115) are a good underdog pick. They’ve had success getting to Richards already this season, and the veteran journeyman has struggled in his newest home park.
Toronto also ranks better than Boston in all of OPS, wOBA, wRC+, K% and BB% against right-handed pitching. Those walk and strikeout rates loom especially large in this starter matchup.
The Boston bullpen has been the better of the two relief units over the last 14 days, but it has also been worked more.
Five Red Sox relievers saw time in Thursday’s 12-8 win over the Houston Astros. The Jays used just two relievers in a 5-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox Thursday.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-160) are also a nice play with the run of insurance in the event of a loss.
The Toronto bullpen has pitched to a 4.73 xFIP over the last 14 days and shouldn’t be trusted with a lead, even if Stripling is able to sustain his strong recent run.
Backing the JAYS +0.5 (-140) on the FIRST 5 INNINGS line is a less expensive play while most likely keeping the ball in the hands of the starters.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 9.5 (-115) is the best play in Blue Jays-Red Sox.
Both offenses are handling right-handed pitching well and neither starter should be expected to go too deep into Friday’s series opener.
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