The Baylor Bears (9-1) are hoping to secure a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win over the Texas Longhorns (6-4) Saturday. This conference showdown will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET from McLane Stadium We analyze the Texas-Baylor odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Texas at Baylor: Three things you need to know
1. Texas has won each of the last three matchups with Baylor, outscoring the Bears by an average of 13 points per game. In the last 10 meetings, Texas is 6-4 straight up against Baylor but just 4-6 against the spread.
2. The Bears were undefeated before blowing a 25-point lead to Oklahoma last Saturday, dropping them to 9-1 on the year. They can still make the Big 12 championship game with a win over the Longhorns, though.
3. Texas has alternated wins and losses over its last six games, most recently losing to Iowa State last week, 23-21. The Longhorns are 3-3 ATS in that span.
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Texas at Baylor: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Baylor 30, Texas 20
Moneyline (ML)
Baylor should win this game, especially with it being at home. The Bears are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games dating back to last season and are healthy entering this one against Texas.
Texas’ defense simply won’t be able to slow down the Bears offense enough in this one, allowing Baylor to come away with a win. Bet on BAYLOR (-223) to win straight up.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Baylor to win returns a profit of $4.48.
Against the Spread (ATS)
Texas is just 4-6 ATS this season, while Baylor is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games this season after starting 1-3. Baylor is 6-2 ATS against Big 12 teams, too.
The Bears are favored by 5.5 points,. It’s not a huge spread considering how poorly Texas has played lately. Take BAYLOR (-115) to cover the spread and win by at least six points.
Over/Under (O/U)
The total is set at 59.5 points, a fairly high number for this matchup. The combination of Texas’ struggling defense and Baylor’s consistent offense makes this seem like the Over is going to hit, but the total has gone Under in each of the last six meetings between these teams.
The total has gone Under in 11 of Texas’ last 15 road games, too. Take the UNDER (-110).
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