Entering the final year of his current contract, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton hopes to get an extension with the team so that he can finish out his career with the organization that drafted him.
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Though the talks of a potential extension have been preliminary up to this point with the Colts, Hilton has made it clear he wants to continue playing for the horseshoe until his number is called for retirement.
“I mean I want to be a Colt for life, but it takes two sides. It is up to Mr. (Jim) Irsay and Chris (Ballard) to get the job done,” Hilton told reporters Wednesday. “So for me, I want to be a Colt. So, you heard it from me.”
Since being drafted in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft, Hilton has been one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league. He has the fifth-most receiving yards (8.598) in the NFL since the 2012 season—only Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins have more.
He’s also 11th in receiving yards per game (72.9) and 12th in receiving touchdowns (45) among wide receivers.
It has been a productive career for Hilton, more than some realize. But he has a feeling that if and when he gets a new contract, that will be it for the Ghost.
“I mean whatever I sign for in my next contract, that’ll be when I hang it up. Whether it’s two years, three years, four years – whatever it is,” Hilton said. “Whatever I sign for in my next contract, that’ll be it for me.”
Hilton is still the unquestioned leader in the wide receiver room and even in the passing offense. The entire aspect of the offense runs through him. But the injuries he’s had to play through and deal with are likely what gives the Colts pause on an extension at this point.
That said, Hilton has proven to be an extremely productive asset when healthy and if he can prove to do so in 2020, he should see another contract come his way.
The strength of schedule for receivers considers both wide receivers and tight ends but not running backs. The usage of wideouts and tight ends varies from team to team so they should be considered together. As there are only a handful of relevant fantasy tight ends each year, considering them alone would result in much greater inaccuracy.
Receivers are also the least impacted by the schedule strength. The top receivers from each offense will always garner greater coverage. And those are mostly controlled by the quality of the opposing cornerback. Wide receiver vs. cornerback is the only 1:1 matchup of all fantasy players and defenses. So take this only as a minor consideration in valuing a player.
Total Points
For fantasy contests and such, only total points matter so below are the total points for each passing offense derived from their schedule against the averages allowed in 2019 by those defenses.
Weekly Play
Three different views are below. Week 1 to 16 is the full season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 14 to 16 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22. The middle 20 matchups were neither good nor bad.
Notable schedules
Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller (CHI) – The Bears have the best passing schedule across the board and that will benefit Robinson and Miller the most. There is an opportunity within that since the quarterback controversy between Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles naturally throws shade on the receivers. With this schedule, either quarterback should look better and that benefits Robinson and Miller the most.
Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones (DET) – Golladay is already a hot commodity after his 11 scores in 2019 but Jones was injured for the last two seasons. The return of a healthy Matt Stafford already bodes well and the Lions schedule is one of the lightest for receivers. Aside from matchups with the Packers and Bears, the wideout duo should make even more noise this year.
Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf (SEA) – The duo already combined for 1,957 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2019. Now they get to face the bottom third of soft venues in half of their games. A mature offense with one of the better quarterbacks in the league gets a schedule advantage over most of the league. And this offense focuses almost solely on those two starting wideouts.
T.Y. Hilton/TBD – After a downturn last year, it is easy to forget that Hilton’s last two seasons with Andrew Luck produced 1,448 and 1,270 yards respectively. Now Philip Rivers takes over and that bound to improve Hilton’s stats. Throw in a schedule with only four bad venues and he’s sure to improve. The rookie Michael Pittman battles Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell for the No. 2 role that should surprise given there is only one bad matchup over the first eight weeks.
A.J. Brown/Adam Humphries (TEN) – The Titans are a run-first team anyway, but the schedule isn’t going to make it any easier when they pass. Brown was red hot down the stretch of his rookie season and is clearly the only notable receiver there. He starts out with three of his first four matchups versus top defenses and doesn’t enjoy any soft secondaries over his final six games. Brown should still see the volume to produce fantasy value but the other receivers are more certain to feel the impact of this schedule.
Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (BAL) – Hard to get excited by any receiver on a team with a historic volume of rushing and even with the stellar results of 2019, Lamar Jackson only threw for 3,225 yards. And the Ravens had one of the lighter passing schedules last year. Now they only face two of the softer venues and one of those comes in Week 16. The 39 touchdown passes were spread over the entire offense other than Brown (7) and Andrews (10). They’ll need those scores to return similar fantasy value against this far more challenging schedule.
Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson (MIN) – An improved rushing offense saw the Vikings passing decline from 2018 and injuries further depressed the production. With Stefon Diggs gone, the rookie Justin Jefferson is expected to pair with Adam Thielen but no other team has fewer matchups against weaker defenses than the Vikings. Three of the final four games of the fantasy season face bad venues. Tough year for Jefferson to learn the ropes and Thielen to get back to his success of 2018.
Stefon Diggs/John Brown (BUF) – Overall, the Bills receivers go against an average schedule strength but that happens in a curious way. Over the first ten weeks, they face just two bad venues and yet enjoy six good ones. After their Week 11 bye, it all goes bad. Their final five games of the fantasy season – including all of the fantasy playoffs – pit them against the worst venues. Those final five are the Chargers, at the 49ers, Steelers, at the Broncos, and then at the Patriots. That’s not going to propel anyone into their fantasy playoffs.
2020 weekly grid
Average passing fantasy points allowed
Fantasy values were derived from 1 point per 10 receiving yards and six-point passing touchdowns.
The Indianapolis Colts are preparing to make a run for the AFC South crown in 2020, but they may have to take care of some housekeeping business with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton beforehand.
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The 30-year-old wide receiver is entering a contract year and will be a free agent following the 2020 season. Though it doesn’t seem an extension is imminent, Hilton told reporters in a Zoom conference call Wednesday that there have been some talks.
Hilton said there were “a few talks” with the #Colts on a contract extension before the virus shut everything down. He’s hoping Jim Irsay and Chris Ballard will want to resume those talks when NFL business reopens.
The Colts wide receiver room has some promise, especially now that Michael Pittman Jr. has joined the room. But Hilton is the alpha dog on the depth chart. The passing offense runs through him and will continue to do so as long he’s healthy.
The extension for Hilton likely wouldn’t be a long one. It could be in the ballpark of two or three years depending on the language of the deal but when healthy, Hilton has still shown to be an impactful WR1.
The biggest question mark comes with his recent health. Hilton has dealt with some injuries during the last two seasons and while he fought through them in one of of his best seasons in 2018, he played just 10 games in 2019.
It will be interesting to see if Hilton gets an extension this offseason or if the Colts decide to wait and see, but it will certainly be something to watch for during the offseason.
The Indianapolis Colts may be a team looking to run the ball, but they also know where their strengths are. When it comes to the passing game, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is still the top dog.
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Turning 31 years old in November, there have been some recent injury concerns with Ghost. But offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni gave some reassurance as to what they believe Hilton brings to the table.
Even with some new faces coming to the offense, Hilton is still the alpha dog in the unit.
Colts OC Nick Sirianni on T.Y. Hilton: T.Y. is the guy this pass offense runs through. He's the dog. He's the Alpha dog.
Hilton has been one of the more underrated players over the last decade. He’s always a threat to make a big play at any time and when his quarterback play is sufficient, he’s one of the most difficult wide receivers to cover.
Hilton should be in line to bounce back in 2020 with Philip Rivers coming in to work under center. Rivers has shown the ability throughout his career to carry a WR1 in the passing game. He and Hilton should find a rapport quickly despite the limitations this offseason.
The addition of second-round pick Michael Pittman Jr., who will be working on the boundary as the X receiver, should help open some things up for Hilton. The latter will still see coverage roll his way, but having a consistent threat opposite him will help greatly for Hilton.
The Colts are wanting to run the football with their duo of Marlon Mack and second-round pick Jonathan Taylor, but they know their best player in the passing game is Hilton and he will continue to lead the offense in that phase of the game.
The Indianapolis Colts are expecting a bounce-back campaign from the offense in 2020 as are fantasy football managers. One player who benefits greatly from the additions this offseason is wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.
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Though drafts are still months away—or at least they should be in re-draft—Hilton is presenting as an early value in fantasy football. If he continues to stay at his current average draft position (ADP), he could wind up being a solid get in drafts.
Per Fantasy Football Calculator, Hilton is currently coming off the board at 4.06 as the WR19 in 12-team, half-PPR formats.
There have been some concerns with Hilton entering the season, but his ceiling doesn’t match that of his current ADP. The biggest concern with the 30-year-old is his recent rash of injuries. Though he’s been able to play through it, for the most part, he has been dealing with some significant ailments during the last two seasons.
Even with those concerns, Hilton is still a great buy in the fourth round. He’s the unquestioned WR1 in the offense and the passing attack is surely running through him. With Philip Rivers under center, there is no reason to think Hilton can’t finish as a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy—and even that could be a little low.
Considering these are the wide receivers being drafted around him, Hilton has the highest ceiling of them all in this group.
While all of these players are strong wide receivers, Hilton has a better case than all of them. Players like Tyler Lockett and Calvin Ridley aren’t the unquestioned leaders on their team while players like Deebo Samuel, D.J. Chark, Stefon Diggs and D.J. Moore are all on either really bad offenses or offenses that favor the run heavily.
Given what Hilton brings to the table when healthy and the fact that the offense should be upgraded, he’s in line to be a strong value in drafts if he continues to hover at his current ADP.
Which Colts might see an extension before the season.
The Indianapolis Colts have made it clear that they aren’t afraid of handing out contract extensions to players they feel deserve it—even if said player has a full season ahead under contract.
General manager Chris Ballard has made that move several times in the past, most notably with cornerback Kenny Moore and punter Rigoberto Sanchez during the 2019 offseason.
The Colts have 24 players entering a contract year as unrestricted free agents, but there are a few that stand out. Some of them could wind up getting a new deal before the 2020 season arrives, but most of them are likely proving they deserve another deal.
It may only happen to one of them. It may not happen to any of them. But here are four Colts most likely to receive a contract extension before the 2020 season:
Ryan Kelly | OL | Age: 26
The 2016 first-round pick out of Alabama turns 27 years old at the end of the month and is currently playing on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. If there is one player most likely to get a contract extension before the 2020 season starts, it’s Kelly.
Though he had a two-season stretch where injuries were becoming a massive concern, Kelly bounced back in a big way for the 2019 campaign. He started all 16 games anchoring the offensive line for the Colts while playing on 94.5% of the team’s offensive snaps.
He was extremely efficient as well. According to Pro Football Focus, Kelly allowed just one sack on 591 pass-blocking snaps in 2019. He proved he could be reliable and productive while excelling at one of the most difficult positions in the game of football.
The offensive line is the strength of the Colts offense. Keeping that continuity going is essential, and Kelly’s production isn’t easy to come by.
The Colts might not want to wait and see if Kelly can produce again like he did in 2019. If he does, his value on the market will be as high as its ever been.
Can Rivers and Hilton help each other return to form?
The Indianapolis Colts are bringing a new quarterback under center in the form of Philip Rivers hoping he can revitalize the passing offense after a down year in 2019. Among those benefitting the most will be wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.
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Even though there will be plenty of mouths to feed in the passing game, it will all go through Hilton. He’s dealt with injuries over the last two seasons, but he is still capable of leading the wide receiver room and as long as he stays healthy, should be able to carry the unit.
10) Philip Rivers and T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: Rivers and Hilton are both coming off a down 2019. Hampered by injury and inconsistent quarterback play, Hilton barely topped 500 receiving yards, while Rivers got as close as he ever has to a 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio (23:20). But from 2012 to ’18, Hilton was the NFL’s most productive receiver on a per-catch basis (15.97 yards per reception). Rivers, meanwhile, ranked third in yards per attempt (8.5) just one season ago. With the Colts’ stout offensive line in front of Rivers, it’s not unrealistic for this pair to rediscover their mojo together in Indy.
Hilton suffered a down year in 2019. He was dealing with injuries throughout the campaign from a groin issue early on to a lingering calf injury that severely limited him down the stretch. The play of Jacoby Brissett certainly didn’t help his chances of returning to form.
With Rivers taking over, though, there is a lot of hope that the passing offense will find its groove again. This is especially true given the fact that Rivers prefers to target downfield much more than Brissett did.
It will be interesting to see the improvements of the offense with Rivers leading the way, but he and Hilton should be just fine.
The Indianapolis Colts made their first selection of the 2020 NFL Draft and took wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. from USC.
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Pittman Jr. offers a unique combination of size and speed and will fit in well into Frank Reich’s offense as a guy who can really go up and get it.
At 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, Pittman Jr. will be a matchup problem for many corners across the league and will give newly-acquired Colts quarterback Philip Rivers a reliable target.
Rivers had a pair of reliable targets in LA with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Both guys showed the ability to catch any ball thrown to them anywhere on the field and Pittman Jr. can be compared to both of those players. Another element he adds is a unique ability to catch balls in man coverage while his physicality and athleticism allow him to win downfield.
In fact, Pittman Jr. has the lowest drop percentage of any receiver in the draft at 2.7%. This will give the Colts a safety net as they try to rebrand their offense into a larger down-field threat. Pittman Jr. will add that element and more.
As far as the rest of the receiving corps, Pittman Jr. will fit in nicely with the speedy threats of T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell. Where the Colts love to utilize underneath routes, Pittman Jr. adds more routes to the playbook and can make plays happen after the catch. His versatility will be a nice addition to the room.
The coaching staff and Colts fans should be very excited about this selection, but nobody should be more excited than Rivers. He gets a dynamic receiver who can change an offense as the Colts are still building for the future in this draft.
The 2020 season hasn’t even begun yet but as we turn our attention to the NFL draft later this month, there will be some free agents set to hit the market a year from now.
Most of the big names will likely sign new deals with their teams, keeping them from hitting the open market. But Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has somewhat of an uncertain future following the 2020 season.
Injuries and poor quarterback play limited Hilton over the second half of last season. His 501 receiving yards and 11.1 yards per reception were by far the lowest marks of his NFL career, but the expectation is that Hilton will bounce back next season healthy with Philip Rivers at quarterback. From 2012 to 2018, Hilton recorded 195 receptions of 15 or more yards, fewer than only Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas, and his 2.09 receiving yards were a top-10 mark among 61 wide receivers who ran at least 2,000 routes across those seven seasons. He may be turning 31 years old this upcoming season, but Hilton still brings that dynamic playmaking ability to an offense.
This is a really long ways away and by the time next offseason rolls around, Hilton could have a new contract. It’s not guaranteed at this point, but it is certainly within the realm of possibilities.
Hilton is still capable of making big plays down the field. The offense in 2019 hindered his abilities while injuries took their toll for the second season in a row. Still, Hilton can lead a wide receiver group when healthy.
The Colts are likely to address the wide receiver position during the 2020 draft, which could give somewhat of an indicator for Hilton but if he can show this season that he can stay healthy, he’s likely to get another contract.
Hilton has been underrated for most of his career. He’s hoping to bounce back with Philip Rivers under center before hitting the market in 2021.
With the big wave of free agency having past, fantasy football managers are dissecting the moves made to better formulate a plan ahead of the 2020 NFL draft.
Though a lot is going to change when the big even arrives at the end of April, there are likely to be some relevant players from the Colts’ sideline in 2020. It was a rough season in 2019, but there is reason to be optimistic about a bounce-back from the offense.
In their post-free agency rankings for fantasy football, Pro Football Focus had three Colts listed in the top 150.
55. WR T.Y. Hilton
Hilton’s stock is a little low because of the injuries he’s had to play through over the past two seasons. While he was still able to produce in 2018 despite dealing with multiple ankle injuries, he couldn’t do so in 2019. Mostly dealing with a calf strain, Hilton wasn’t much for fantasy managers.
However, there is optimism. As long as Hilton stays healthy, he has a chance to regain his form as a solid WR2 with Philip Rivers under center. A better passing attack that is funneled through Hilton should lead to him being a potential value in upcoming drafts.
57. RB Marlon Mack
For the first time in his career, Mack surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in 2019. He was a steady force in the backfield taking 247 carries for 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns. Leading the backfield once again, Mack is eager to prove he deserves another contract.
The 23-year-old is in the final year of his rookie contract and while it remains to be seen how badly the Colts want to get a deal done, Mack is in line to have another solid season behind a stout offensive line and an offense in general that should improve from last season.
144. TE Jack Doyle
Ol’ reliable. Doyle will never get the love he deserves because he’s not an exciting pass catcher. However, he gets the job done and has been a reliable short/intermediate target for years. With Rivers joining Indy, nothing about that should change a whole lot.
Rivers has long dealt with strong options at tight end and while Doyle isn’t the receiving threats that Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are, he will have enough of a target share to be a late-round value and weekly streamer throughout the 2020 season.
