Tag: strength of schedule

Chiefs projected to have toughest strength of schedule in 2022

The #Chiefs are projected to have the toughest strength of schedule in the NFL during the 2022 NFL season.

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Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis expects the Kansas City Chiefs to have the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL in 2022.

Sharp always has a unique and accurate take on strength of schedule because his model adds much-needed context to a stale model. He doesn’t just look at prior-year win-loss records. He built a model that creates a consensus betting line that factors in juice (the amount of money a sportsbook makes off of your bet). Why is juice important here? It helps understand the perception of how good a team is expected to be in 2022. As teams get better, bigger money bets will come in for those teams.

Coming off of a 12-5 season, atop the AFC West standings, the Chiefs are playing another first-place schedule this season. While they are set to play the AFC South and NFC West, they also have their own improved division and 17th game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get through. Those facts alone have many thinking K.C. is due for a tough schedule in 2022, but Sharp’s analysis seems to agree.

Their projected win total is 10.7 and their current line is 11 wins (+125) according to Sharp. Their schedule is also the toughest in the NFL, ranking No. 32 in the strength of schedule.

It’s worth noting that last season, Sharp’s projected win total for Kansas City came in at 12.5 and the Chiefs only won 12 games (under). Of the 10 NFL clubs that had the hardest schedules at the end of the 2021 NFL season, only Arizona, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh went over Sharp’s projected win totals.

The Chiefs were forecasted as having a schedule in the top 8 in terms of difficulty last year, but they actually came in at No. 20 at the end of the season. Based solely on team records from last season (2021 actual SOS), the Chiefs will have the sixth most-difficult schedule in the league in 2022.

If Sharp’s model follows last season’s trajectory, two things will be true:

  1. The Chiefs are unlikely to win more than 10 games.
  2. Their regular-season schedule won’t actually be the hardest in the NFL.

This has been one of the more accurate forecasting tools in terms of strength of schedule. It’ll be interesting to see if there is any positive movement for Kansas City after April’s draft.

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Where Colts rank in 2022 strength of schedule

According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Colts have one of the easiest strength of schedules in 2022.

The Indianapolis Colts are going through the offseason hoping their additions made in March and April will give them a chance to win the division for the first time since 2014.

While the typical method of looking at strength of schedule includes using the average win total from the previous season, too much changes during the offseason to rely solely on the season that was.

Instead, some sites like Sharp Football Analysis use projected win totals for the upcoming season to create strength of schedule because they include changes that have been made to the offseason roster.

When looking at those rankings, the Colts may be looking at one of the easiest schedules in 2022. They came in with the fourth-easiest schedule behind only the Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles.

This is a bit of a shock considering the Colts will have four games against the AFC West, which is widely viewed as the toughest division in the NFL right now. But after that, the Colts have very winnable games.

The AFC South is always up for grabs and after trading for Matt Ryan, the Colts have a quarterback that can keep them competitive in that race.

They also get to play the NFC East and while that division hosts playoff teams like the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, no one would be shocked if Indy went 2-2 or 3-1 against those teams.

There is still a lot of work to be done on the roster this offseason and most of it will come through the draft at the end of the month, but it appears the projections have the Colts with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.

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Jaguars projected to have seventh-easiest strength of schedule in 2022

Can the Jaguars take advantage of one of the easiest NFL strength of schedules in 2022?

The Jacksonville Jaguars could use an easier schedule after they have finished with the NFL’s worst record in consecutive seasons. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis believes they will have one in 2022. He tweeted a graphic and wrote that the Jaguars have the seventh easiest strength of schedule next season while their rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, have the fourth easiest.

Jacksonville is scheduled to play all four teams in the AFC West and NFC East while also running up against the fourth-place teams in the AFC East and North. It plays the last-place teams in the other AFC divisions because it finished last behind the Colts, Houston Texans, and Tennessee Titans last season. Then the Jags will play two games versus each divisional opponent.

While the Colts have an easier schedule than the Jaguars, the Titans’ strength of schedule sits middle of the pack, and the Texans’ schedule ranks as one of the toughest.

Jacksonville is currently projected to finish third in the division by many in the football community, only in front of Houston. Meanwhile, Tennessee and Indianapolis are expected to fight for first place.

The Jaguars should see a considerable amount of improvement this season after they brought in a former Super Bowl-winning head coach, Doug Pederson, and made a splash in free agency.

Chiefs have toughest remaining strength of schedule in NFL after Week 7

Opponents aren’t going to get any easier for the #Chiefs from here on out.

Things aren’t going to get any easier for the Kansas City Chiefs when it comes to the opponents they’ll face in the remainder of the season.

Ahead of the start of the 2021 NFL season, ESPN ranked the Chiefs with one of the most difficult schedules in the league. Through seven games and with 10 left to go, it looks like they were right.

Opponents the Chiefs have faced so far have a 26-22 record on the season. The majority of AFC conference opponents are all squarely in the AFC playoff picture. If you take out the two NFC East opponents KC has played, opponents have a 22-12 record on the year.

Moving forward, the Chiefs will face opponents with a 41-26 overall record on the year, which amounts to a .612 opponent win percentage and the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league. The worst part of this is that only two AFC teams who are considered contention for playoffs spots (Browns and Ravens) are among the top 10 teams in terms of the remaining strength of schedule. Adding insult to injury, no AFC West opponent has a remaining schedule with over a .500 win percentage.

Here is the remaining opponent win percentage for the rest of the league and where their strength of schedule ranks through the last 10 weeks of the season:

1. Kansas City Chiefs: .612
2. Carolina Panthers: .591
3. Minnesota Vikings: .589
4. Cleveland Browns: .588
5. San Francisco 49ers: .568
6. Baltimore Ravens: .567
7. Pittsburgh Steelers: .547
8. New Orleans Saints: .542
9. Detroit Lions: .537
10. Green Bay Packers: .529
11. Los Angeles Rams: .515
12. Washington Football Team: .515
13. Seattle Seahawks: .515
14. Cincinnati Bengals: .515
15. Indianapolis Colts: .515
16. Chicago Bears: .500
17. Las Vegas Raiders: .500
18. Denver Broncos: .493
19. Atlanta Falcons: .493
20. New England Patriots: .492
21. Dallas Cowboys: .486
22. New York Giants: .485
23. Arizona Cardinals: .471
24. Houston Texans: .455
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: .452
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: .446
27. Los Angeles Chargers: .440
28. Miami Dolphins: .439
29. New York Jets: .438
30. Buffalo Bills: .403
31. Philadelphia Eagles: .379
32. Tennessee Titans: .379

The Chiefs still have a chance to dig themselves out of their early-season hole and make the playoffs, but it’s not going to be easy. Plus, they’ve left themselves very little room for error along the way.

While the Chiefs get another 2-5 NFC East team this week in the Giants, just around the corner is perhaps the toughest three-game stretch of the year. They’ll face the Packers (6-1) in Week 9, travel to the Raiders (5-2) in Week 10 and wrap things up with the Cowboys (5-1) in Week 11 just before the bye week. If they’re going to control their own fate heading into the playoffs, winning during that stretch will be vital.

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Where the Chargers rank among remaining strength of schedule

The Chargers shouldn’t have it too rough the rest of the way.

Currently, on the bye week, the Chargers are 4-2.

Upon returning next weekend, Los Angeles is set to have a favorable schedule, which should help as they look to maintain superiority in the AFC West.

According to Tankathon, the Chargers have the fifth-easiest schedule remaining in the NFL. Only the Jets, Eagles, Titans, and Bills have a more manageable schedule remaining.

The Bolts’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .427. The Chargers’ two losses came from games against Dallas and Baltimore, two playoff contenders.

The most recent loss to the Ravens exposed a significant need for improvement against the run. The team is allowing 162.5 rushing yards per game, which is the worst in the NFL.

Furthermore, the early-down playcalling and special teams areas that Los Angeles needs to shore up.

If the Bolts can make the changes and you couple that with how advantageous the remaining schedule is, the team has a great shot at winning the division and locking up one of the top spots for the playoffs.

Saints’ remaining strength of schedule rated 11th easiest in NFL

Saints’ remaining strength of schedule rated 11th easiest in NFL

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Check out this chart from ESPN’s Mike Clay, who ranked all 32 teams’ strength of schedule with their remaining opponents. And that benefits the New Orleans Saints in a big way: they’ve got his 11th-easiest remaining road to go. Not too shabby.

Of the Saints’ 14 remaining games, only 6 of them are scheduled against teams that currently have a winning record. That includes their two-game series with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) in Weeks 8 and 15, a Week 10 road game with the Tennessee Titans (2-1), the Week 12 Thanksgiving night game against the Buffalo Bills (2-1) and the following week’s Thursday away game with the Dallas Cowboys (2-1), and a pivotal Week 17 home game versus the Carolina Panthers (3-0).

Then again, this is only a projection. Any team can win in the NFL on any given Sunday no matter the odds, and the Saints shouldn’t take that for granted. They’ve been surprised by seemingly-weak opponents before. Let’s hope they remain focused on each week’s matchup and prepare accordingly.

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LSU has the third-toughest schedule remaining

Updated look at win probabilities, the LSU Tigers have the third-toughest schedule remaining in the country.

The computers are starting to give some love to the LSU Tigers. Their win probabilities have changed for the better in every game this season.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, LSU has the No. 3 toughest remaining schedule in the country. Only the Auburn Tigers have a tougher remaining schedule. Auburn has five teams remaining in the top 25, while LSU also has five. The difference is that the former has to play both the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs.

Updated look at the game-by-game win probabilities for LSU:

Opponent Win Probability Prev Change
at Mississippi State 44.2 41.6 +2.6
vs Auburn 41.6 34.4 +7.2
at Kentucky 59.1 37.6 +21.5
vs Florida 33.9 30.6 +3.3
at Ole Miss 30.4 25.8 +4.6
at Alabama 8.6 5.7 +2.9
vs Arkansas 50.9 44.8 +6.1
vs UL-Monroe 98.7 97.3 +1.5
vs Texas A&M 43.1 33.1 +10.0

Prior to the game against Central Michigan, the Tigers were only favored to win against UL-Monroe and the game this past Saturday. The update has LSU favored against Kentucky and Arkansas, but the game against the Razorbacks is essentially a coinflip at this point. Games against the Wildcats and Texas A&M saw the biggest change.

All eyes will be in Starkville this weekend as the Bayou Bengals travel to Mississippi State to open SEC play. The Bulldogs have a slight edge but the Tigers are hungry for retribution after losing 44-34 at home to open last season.

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LOOK: Michigan State football’s strength of schedule according to SP+

Look at what ESPN’s SP+ metric ranks MSU’s schedule

With just over a week until Michigan State kicks off their 2021 campaign against Northwestern, everyone that is a part of Spartan Nation, as well as the college football world is gearing up for the start of the season.

A fun way to analyze how your season will go is looking at how your favorite teams’ strength of schedule ranks among the rest of the country.

According to ESPN’s SP+ metric, MSU’s schedule ranks as the 13th hardest schedule in the nation.

Mel Tucker will have a tough path to a bowl game in his second season at the helm of Michigan State.

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Eye-opening visual of Dolphins’ 2021 implied strength of schedule

Eye-opening visual of Dolphins’ 2021 implied strength of schedule

When the NFL released the 2021 schedule for each of the 32 franchises across the league, one of the first big takeaways of the Dolphins’ individual schedule was just how difficult of a start the team had. Back to back AFC East games against the Patriots and Bills to open the year, followed by a west coast trip to Las Vegas before coming home to face the Indianapolis Colts and then the defending Super Bowl champions in Tampa Bay?

Sheesh.

The Dolphins’ objective this season as it pertains to that early slate is to find a way to start fast. At least claim a win between the two AFC East games, go take care of business in Las Vegas, as the team did last year and then try to nail down either of the next two. That would put the team at 3-2 after their most brutal stretch of the season and have the team well aligned for more success.

The visualization of the Dolphins’ “implied” strength of schedule, based on expected win totals for each team, paints a very enticing picture for the Dolphins:

Matchups against Buffalo, New England, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and Baltimore stand out on the Dolphins’ schedule — and only two of those total seven games on the schedule come after Week 8:

  • Week 10 versus Baltimore on Thursday Night Football
  • Week 18 versus New England

Both games are at home, too. So consider the gauntlet thrown for the Dolphins: find a way to start fast this upcoming season. Because if the rest of the schedule goes according to plan based on perceived win totals, Miami will be hot once again to close the season. They just can’t afford to dig themselves a hole the size of the 1-3 start they dug themselves in 2020.