Tag: St. Louis Cardinals betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (7-8) and Washington Nationals (5-8) open up a three-game series at 7:05 p.m. ET Monday at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jack Flaherty is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 2-0 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 in 15 1/3 IP over 3 starts. Since getting roughed up by the Reds on Opening Day, Flaherty has yielded just one run over 11 IP.

RHP Joe Ross is the projected starter for the Nationals. Ross is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 11 IP over 2 turns in the Washington rotation. The aggregate St. Louis line against him includes a .626 OPS and .111 isolated power.

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Cardinals at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+125) |  Nationals +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The Redbirds and Nats faced each other last week, with Washington claiming two wins in a three-game set. Both Monday starters — Flaherty and Ross — pitched in that series.

Flaherty pitched 5 shutout frames on Tuesday; Ross tossed 6 scoreless innings on Wednesday.

The series loss for the Cards is part of a string of three series setbacks in a row; St. Louis enters Monday’s contest having won just two of its last eight games.

Flaherty didn’t pitch all that different in 2020 (4.19 ERA) than he did in 2018 (3.34) or 2019 (2.75). He was undone by a low strand rate and a higher percentage of fly balls leaving the yard.

Peg the Redbirds having enough edge on the mound to warrant a slim road favorites’ price. BACK THE CARDINALS (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS, but for the sake of a rider on the above ML play, consider a Cardinals play if the tag approaches +160.

Over/Under (O/U)

Surface run production numbers for the Washington offense (3.8 runs per game) don’t match with the higher proficiency that shows in advanced metrics.

St. Louis (4.9) does have some solid scoring numbers, but even its offense is perhaps underperforming given how hard the Cards have been hitting baseballs this April.

With both hurlers being seen for a second time in six days, and with both bullpens filing average but ball-in-play deflated numbers, BACK THE OVER 8 (-110).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (6-7) and Philadelphia Phillies (7-6) tangle in the middle game of a three-game series Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. The sophomore southpaw has been on the shelf after injuring his back in spring training. In 8 games last year, Kim went 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 5.54 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 in 39 IP.

LHP Matt Moore is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 0-0 with a 7.56 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 through 8 1/3 IP over 2 starts. The reclamation project, who missed most of 2019 after knee surgery and spent 2020 in Japan, has allowed 17 base runners in 8 1/3 IP.

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Cardinals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

Heading into this series, the Phillies had gone 1-5 over their previous six games. The Redbirds had lost four of their last five. The Phils took a commanding early lead and cruised to a 9-2 victory in Friday’s series opener.

On a fade of Kim — who benefited from generous rates around the margins in his 2020 debut season — and the St. Louis offense, PHILADELPHIA -105 is a solid play Saturday.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on what is a juicier expression of a play on the Phillies.

Over/Under (O/U)

Cool, overcast, breeze-in conditions are in the forecast. A general pitching fade that extends to these bullpens works against that. Happy to take the Over in a hitter’s park, but I’m willing to wait and see if the weather conditions — and Kim’s 2020 ERA — get bettors off the same feel. Go lightly on the plus money at UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (6-6) and Philadelphia Phillies (6-6) open a three-game series Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Carlos Martinez is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 10 IP over 2 starts. Martinez has an 8.70 ERA over 7 starts across the last two seasons (2020-21); he clocked a 3.22 ERA in 175 games from 2015-19.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 0-0 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through 13 IP over 2 starts. Eflin was ticketed for a Thursday start against the New York Mets, but that game was rained out. He faced Atlanta twice thus far; he ran into a lot of bats in the second of those two turns and allowed 4 earned runs over 6 innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cardinals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

Philadelphia is coming off a rough road trip after a solid start to the season. The Phillies went 1-5 over six games against the Braves and Mets. They head into this series on a three-game losing skid.

The Redbirds are nearly in the opposite boat. St. Louis has lost four of its last five and was playing better on the road early in the season.

This series in Philly features a Cardinals offense scoring 5.0 runs per game to rank seventh in MLB against a Phillies pitching staff doing a credible job of keeping runs off the board with a 12th-ranked 4.09 team ERA.

Both sides seem a tad fade-able heading into the back half of April. PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

On just a sliver of a lean, TAKE THE CARDINALS +1.5 (-155) in a game with an Under feel.

Over/Under (O/U)

Philadelphia’s Thursday rainout helps the Under here. Neither bullpen is anything special, but at least the Phillies come in with a rested relief corps. Eflin is a solid home pitcher, and with the rainout avoids a left-leaning Mets lineup in favor of more righty bats in the St. Louis order.

The weather forecast calls for a chance of wet weather, a cool-ish evening, and a double-digit breeze in from left field. Peg the Cardinals offense as being over its head at the 5.0 RPG level.

TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-115).

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Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (2-5) look to make it two in a row over the St. Louis Cardinals (5-5) when they meet Tuesday at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Stephen Strasburg is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He was limited to two starts and five total innings in 2020 before undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome in his right hand.

Strasburg was sharp in his 2021 debut. He tossed six shutout innings against the Braves, allowing one hit and striking out eight, and inducing 12 swinging strikes on 85 pitches. He has made three career starts in St. Louis, where he has recorded a 3.38 ERA and 9.6 K/9 in 18 2/3 innings.

RHP Jack Flaherty is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He never really got back on track following the team’s COVID layoff in August of last year and ended the season with a 4.91 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9 in nine starts.

Flaherty has had one good start and one bad one so far in 2021, which has added up to a 5.23 ERA and 8.7 K/9.

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Nationals at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cardinals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Nationals 5, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

The Cardinals have lost three in a row, all games in which they were playing at home and favored to win.

It’s still not clear Flaherty is at his best, as even in his six shutout inning outing, he walked four batters, and is sporting a 10/6 K/BB through two starts (10 1/3 innings).

Strasburg’s velocity wasn’t all the way back to pre-2020 levels in his first start, but he missed a lot of bats in his strong performance.

Though Washington is off to a slow start, the return of Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell from the COVID list on Monday should provide a spark.

Side with the NATIONALS (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

All five of the Cardinals’ losses this season have been by more than one run, and Flaherty, with a 1.7 K/BB and 5.76 FIP, can’t be fully trusted to shut down the Washington bats.

A small play on the NATIONALS -1.5 (+155) makes sense here.

Over/Under (O/U)

This line is low, especially considering Flaherty hasn’t really been dominant in quite some time, and Strasburg may not be stretched out enough to go more than six innings.

Don’t expect a real high-scoring game, but OVER 7 (-120) looks like the way to go.

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Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (1-5) are visiting the St. Louis Cardinals (5-4) Monday for Game 1 of a three-game set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington was swept 3-0 by the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers and was shut out in two of those games. St. Louis lost back-to-back games—allowing 9 runs in each—against the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers to drop its previous series 2-1.

RHP Erick Fedde (0-1) makes his second start for the Nationals. He was smacked around in a 7-6 Nationals loss to the Atlanta Braves Wednesday. He lasted only 1 2/3 IP, giving up 5 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks with just 1 strikeout.

RHP John Gant (0-0) is on the mound for the Cardinals in his second start of the season and since 2018. He pitched 4 innings with only 1 unearned run allowed, while allowing 4 hits, striking out 4 and walking 3 in St. Louis’ 4-2 win over the Miami Marlins last week.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Nationals at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Cardinals -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-150) | Cardinals -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Nationals 5

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” on the Cardinals (-145) because I think St. Louis is the right side but the money line is a little too expensive.

Also, I have faith the Nationals will have a good season and their 1-5 record has a lot to do with playing the teams that played for the 2020 NL pennant, which keeps me away from the Cardinals’ money line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

April has been Gant’s best month throughout his career; he is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 35 K and 13 BB in 1 start and 21 relief appearances in March and April.

Since the beginning of 2019, Statcast grades Fedde in the bottom-third of the majors in many advanced pitching metrics including K%, Whiff% and xwOBA.

Furthermore, Fedde had a plus-5 ERA in spring training and was teed off on last week. The outing brought his career April ERA to 7.94 but in only two appearances.

BET CARDINALS -1.5 (+125) for .75 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit. The reason Gant is starting is due to injuries in the Cardinals rotation so he’s more of a wild card than a known quantity.

While the Nationals hitters are in the basement of the league vs. right-handed pitchers, they’ve faced quality opponents and have the fewest at-bats against righties since Washington’s first three games were postponed due to COVID-19.

The Nationals lineup could certainly get to a Cardinals pitching staff that has allowed 9 or more runs in four of their nine games this season.

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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (3-4) and St. Louis Cardinals (5-2) continue their three-game series Saturday at 2:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adrian Houser is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. A year ago, Houser went 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 56 IP over 12 appearances. He went five frames, allowing two runs in his 2021 debut. Houser owns a 210-point split in his vs.-left/vs.-right-effectiveness (.853 OPS allowed vs. left-handed bats; .643 OPS allowed vs. right-handed bats).

RHP Carlos Martinez is the Cardinals’ choice for Saturday. Martinez started just five games in 2020; he went 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9 in 20 IP. He missed games due to a COVID diagnosis and an oblique injury. Martinez started the Cards’ April 4 game at Cincinnati; he allowed four runs in 5 IP. He was cruising until the second time through the order when things derailed.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Brewers at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cardinals -115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS:  Brewers -1.5 (+155) |  Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

This series started Thursday and included a Friday off day. Still, considering top-end work Thursday and on the previous couple days, the Milwaukee bullpen is in better shape heading into Saturday.

Houser’s platoon edge plays into this wager as well. Against righty starters, the Cardinals lineup leans more to the right than most.

Milwaukee outscored St. Louis, 41-29, in a 10-game split a year ago. Getting Houser plus a sharper edge of the relief exchange makes for Brewers value on anything less than -120.

BACK THE BREWERS -105.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the juicier run line, and protect your bankroll against prices that are difficult to outrun.

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking at the batting average on balls in play is instructive to analyzing the offenses on both sides here. Both attacks have been BABIP-beaten down early, Milwaukee with a .233 BABIP and St. Louis with a .250 figure. The Brewers numbers are also dodgy when leading off an inning, a stat that is as important as any late-game, man-on numbers with how clutch and impactful they are.

Weather conditions for Busch Stadium are forecast as cool, but humid, and with a 17-mile-an-hour wind blowing out to center. Both starters get a lot of ground balls, but both pens are prone to the aerial game.

TAKE THE OVER 8 (-110).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (3-2) and Miami Marlins (1-4) wrap up a three-game set Wednesday at 4:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jack Flaherty is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 0-0 with a 12.46 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 4 1/3 IP in his one start this season. Flaherty hasn’t faced the Marlins since June 18, 2019, allowing three earned runs, four hits and a walk with eight strikeouts across seven innings in a loss despite the quality start.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 0-0 with an 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 5 IP in his one start in 2021. He has just one career appearance against the Cardinals, allowing two earned runs, four hits and one walk with five strikeouts across seven innings in a no-decision and quality start Aug. 7, 2018 in Miami.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cardinals at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (-105) look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Cardinals (-115), who have enjoyed solid pitching across the first two games of the series. The good pitching should continue, but Lopez should give his team a chance to avoid the broom.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARLINS +1.5 (-175) aren’t a bad play catching a run-and-a-half, as they look to avoid a three-game sweep. The problem with Miami so far in 2021 is that they have averaged just 1.5 runs per game in two outings against the Cardinals and four or fewer runs in four of their five outings. Miami has covered the run line as an underdog just once in the past four.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 7.5 (-115) is the lean, cashing in the first two games of this series. The Under is also 3-2 in Miami’s first five outings, and they’re averaging just 4.6 runs per game despite a 12-run explosion April 3. Take that game out, and the offense has just 1.8 runs per game in the other four.

The Cardinals have averaged just 3.8 runs per game across the past four outings, and they have yielded just three runs in the first two of this series.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (2-2) and Miami Marlins (1-3) play the second of a three-game set Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP John Gant is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He was 0-3 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 15 IP across 17 relief appearances (no starts) in 2020. Gant hasn’t faced the Marlins since June 17-20, when he appeared three times in a four-game series, allowing just one hit and one walk across three scoreless innings.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 0-0 with an 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 6 IP in his one start in 2021. Alcantara hasn’t faced the Cardinals since June 10, 2019 when he allowed four runs – one earned – and four hits with four walks and six strikeouts across five innings in a loss at home. He’ll be pitching against his former team as the Cards dealt him to Miami in the package that landed OF Marcell Ozuna before the 2019 season.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cardinals at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+155) | Marlins +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Cardinals 2

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (-120) are a good play behind Alcantara. He allowed just two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts across six scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays in the opener Thursday. I like the fact Alcantara has a start under his belt, while the Cardinals use Gant, who hasn’t started a game since 2018.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARLINS +1.5 (-190) are just over my personal limit of -180, but they’re not a terrible play at home behind their best starting pitcher. I’d rather just use them straight up, but if you don’t trust Miami to win outright, and want some insurance, have at it!

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the way to go here. After hitting the Over in the first three games, the Cardinals won 4-1 on Monday and cashed their first Under. The Marlins hit the Under in their first game with Alcantara on the bump, a 1-0 loss on April 1.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (1-2) and Miami Marlins (1-2) play the first of a three-game set Monday at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He was 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 32 2/3 IP over eight starts and one relief appearance in 2020. Ponce de Leon hasn’t faced the Marlins since June 19, 2019, when he allowed just two hits and one walk with six strikeouts across six scoreless innings at home in a no-decision.

LHP Trevor Rogers is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He was 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 28 IP over seven starts in 2020. This will be the first career start for Rogers against the Cardinals.

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Cardinals at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Marlins -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (-110) are worth playing lightly as they open a three-game set against the Cardinals (-110). St. Louis closed out the 2020 season with just one victory in their final six tries against a left-handed starting pitcher, and they were 0-4 in their final four road outings vs. LHP.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARLINS +1.5 (-175) are a little more on the expensive side if you don’t trust them straight up. However, the Cardinals -1.5 (+145) were spanked 12-1 in their series finale in Cincinnati Sunday, and they have been outscored 21-7 across the past two. So the Marlins are the better play, although I like them better just straight up.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 8.5 (-110) is worth a look here despite the fact the Over cashed in each of the first three for the Cardinals. The Marlins hit the Under in the opening game, but the Over in each of the past two. However, the Under is 7-3-1 in the previous 11 meetings between these teams, and St. Louis ended last season with the Under cashing in four of their final five vs. LHP.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds host NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals Thursday for Opening Day at the Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. Flaherty was 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 across 9 starts last season.

  • 2020 vs. Reds: No appearances
  • Career vs. Reds: 2-2, 2.48 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in 7 starts
  • Vs. Reds in the projected lineup: 56 at-bats with 4 HR, 6 RBIs, .268 BA, .402 wOBA and .268 ISO

RHP Luis Castillo is the Reds’ projected starter. In 2020, Castillo was 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 12 starts.

  • 2020 vs. Cardinals: 1-0, 1.00 ERA, (CG, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K) in 1 start
  • Career vs. Cardinals: 4-4, 3.84 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 28 ER) with 8.8 K/9 in 11 starts
  • Vs. Cardinals in the projected lineup: 125 at-bats with 7 HR, 19 RBIs, .232 BA, .334 wOBA and .208 ISO

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Cardinals at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Reds -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Reds 8, Cardinals 2

Money line (ML)

Castillo’s numbers vs. the hitters he’ll see Thursday are far better than Flaherty’s which makes sense because Castillo is much more of a No. 1 starter.

Flaherty is young and in a top-notch organization, but his numbers really dipped year over year in last season’s 60-game sprint and he hasn’t pitched well in Spring Training.

Also, according to Pregame.com, this is the only game where the money column is higher than the “bets placed” column and the money column typically indicates the sharp side of the market.

If we are following the sharps, then the play is the REDS (-115) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Cincinnati’s lineup hit better against righties last season, ranking 15th in wOBA but had the worst BABIP in the MLB, while St. Louis was 23rd in wOBA and 14th in BABIP.

Additionally, Castillo has the second-highest ground-ball percentage in the Majors (for qualified pitchers), while Flaherty had the 14th-highest HR/FB rate for pitchers with a minimum of 30 innings pitched.

If Flaherty allows enough flyballs to Reds hitters in this park with the predicted wind forecast, then I like Cincinnati to get an insurance run or two.

BET REDS -1.5 (+165) for a one-fifth-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Cincinnati’s home field can be a bit of a launching pad. Lefties hit the most home runs last season at Great American Ball Park.

With the weather forecast predicting 14 MPH winds blowing out to right-center, I favor the Reds lineup since there are more left-handed hitters.

Reds lefties LF Jesse Winker and 3B Mike Moustakas have each hit a home run in their 10 career at-bats vs. Flaherty.

BET OVER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter-unit.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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