The Cincinnati Reds host NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals Thursday for Opening Day at the Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. Flaherty was 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 across 9 starts last season.
- 2020 vs. Reds: No appearances
- Career vs. Reds: 2-2, 2.48 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in 7 starts
- Vs. Reds in the projected lineup: 56 at-bats with 4 HR, 6 RBIs, .268 BA, .402 wOBA and .268 ISO
RHP Luis Castillo is the Reds’ projected starter. In 2020, Castillo was 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 12 starts.
- 2020 vs. Cardinals: 1-0, 1.00 ERA, (CG, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K) in 1 start
- Career vs. Cardinals: 4-4, 3.84 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 28 ER) with 8.8 K/9 in 11 starts
- Vs. Cardinals in the projected lineup: 125 at-bats with 7 HR, 19 RBIs, .232 BA, .334 wOBA and .208 ISO
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Cardinals at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Reds -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Reds 8, Cardinals 2
Money line (ML)
Castillo’s numbers vs. the hitters he’ll see Thursday are far better than Flaherty’s which makes sense because Castillo is much more of a No. 1 starter.
Flaherty is young and in a top-notch organization, but his numbers really dipped year over year in last season’s 60-game sprint and he hasn’t pitched well in Spring Training.
Also, according to Pregame.com, this is the only game where the money column is higher than the “bets placed” column and the money column typically indicates the sharp side of the market.
If we are following the sharps, then the play is the REDS (-115) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Cincinnati’s lineup hit better against righties last season, ranking 15th in wOBA but had the worst BABIP in the MLB, while St. Louis was 23rd in wOBA and 14th in BABIP.
Additionally, Castillo has the second-highest ground-ball percentage in the Majors (for qualified pitchers), while Flaherty had the 14th-highest HR/FB rate for pitchers with a minimum of 30 innings pitched.
If Flaherty allows enough flyballs to Reds hitters in this park with the predicted wind forecast, then I like Cincinnati to get an insurance run or two.
BET REDS -1.5 (+165) for a one-fifth-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Cincinnati’s home field can be a bit of a launching pad. Lefties hit the most home runs last season at Great American Ball Park.
With the weather forecast predicting 14 MPH winds blowing out to right-center, I favor the Reds lineup since there are more left-handed hitters.
Reds lefties LF Jesse Winker and 3B Mike Moustakas have each hit a home run in their 10 career at-bats vs. Flaherty.
BET OVER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter-unit.
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