Originally, oddsmakers saw the Brooklyn Nets winning just under 45 games this year. Now even 40 wins seems to be too high of a mark to some.
Coming out of the 2020 NBA All-Star break, the Brooklyn Nets are currently the No. 7 team in the Eastern Conference standings with a record of 25-28 through the first 53 games of the 2019-20 season.
Originally, BetOnline — who also had Spencer Dinwiddie as the odds-on favorite to win the 2020 Skills Challenge heading into NBA All-Star Saturday — set the Nets’ regular season win total over/under at 43 1/2 wins. Brooklyn has 29 games left on the schedule. So, in order to surpass the original mark, the Nets would have to go 19-10 for the remainder of the season.
BetOnline has set new 2019-20 over/under win totals for teams across the NBA, and with the way this season has gone so far for the Nets, the site has dropped the over/under by a few games.
BetOnline now has Brooklyn’s over/under win total at 38 1/2 games. The Nets have to go 14-15 the rest of the way in order to finish with 39 wins. This would require the Nets to register a slightly better winning percentage (.483) than the one they’ve had throughout the first 53 games of the season (.472).
Previewing Sunday’s Daytona 500 sports betting odds and lines, with NASCAR betting picks, tips and best bets.
The Monster Energy Cup Series kicks off the 2020 NASCAR season at Daytona International Speedway Sunday afternoon for the Daytona 500 at 2:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Daytona 500 betting odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and tips.
The weather forecast is always important for NASCAR races, particularly in the early part of the season when the rains are a little more prevalent in the East. The good news is the temperatures will be in the mid-70’s with just a 20% chance of precipitation for the first Monster Energy Cup Series race, and really the worst day for weather for Speedweeks appears to be Friday. While the Gander Outdoors Truck Series race might be affected Friday night, the Xfinity race Saturday and MENCS race Sunday look to be good to go barring a change to the forecast.
Who is going to win the 2020 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway?
Feb 9, 2020; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA;NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) during qualifying for the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. (Photo Credit: Mike Dinovo – USA TODAY Sports)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Last season’s Daytona 500 winner, Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin (+1000), as well as Hendrick Motorsports driver Jimmie Johnson (+2000), are the only active drivers with multiple victories at the Daytona 500.
According to NASCAR’s Loop Data, Johnson has an 85.3 Driver Rating over his past five starts at DIS, which includes the July summer races, to rank fifth among active drivers while leading 14 laps and running 57.1% of his rotations inside the Top 15.
If you look at the Loop Data for just the past five Daytona 500 races, Hamlin goes from outside of the Top 10 in Driver Rating for all races, to second. He has a 99.4 Driver Rating over the past five February races at the track while leading a circuit-best 151 laps. He has also run 70.2% of his laps inside the Top 15 in the past five Daytona 500s. Hamlin not only won the 2019 installment of the Great American Race but also the 2016 version, too.
Penske Racing driver Joey Logano (+1000) is actually listed as a co-favorite with Hendrick’s Chase Elliott, Hamlin and JGR’s Kyle Busch (+1000). Logano tops the charts over the past five Daytona 500 starts with a 102.7 Driver Rating while leading 61 laps and running 80.7% of his laps inside the Top 15. He has managed a 4.2 Average-Finish Position (AFP) during the five-race span, too. Logano averaged 161.939 mph in his 2015 victory at Daytona, the fastest average speed since Dale Earnhardt Sr. won Feb. 15, 1998 with an average speed of 172.712 mph.
2020 Daytona 500 longshot bets
Feb 9, 2020; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (right) wins pole award and driver Alex Bowman (left) is the runner up during qualifying for the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. (Photo Credit: Mike Dinovo – USA TODAY Sports)
JTG Daugherty’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2000) is on the pole for Sunday’s race, the eighth consecutive season a Chevrolet leads the pack out. He’ll be right ahead of Hendrick’s Alex Bowman (+2000), who will be on the outside of Row 1. In the past four Daytona 500 starts, Bowman is closing in on a winner. He has averaged a 1.5 Average-Start Position while registering a 9.5 AFP. That’s good for a 93.4 Driver Rating, so he’ll be one to watch as he looks to earn his first checkered flag in the Great American Race. His best-ever finish in the 500 is 11th, so he’ll be looking to improve upon that dramatically.
Stenhouse leads all drivers with a 95.9 Driver Rating across his past five starts overall at Daytona International Speedway, leading 97 laps. While he isn’t rostered on one of the ‘power’ teams at JTG, he does have a Hendrick motor under his hood, so don’t discount him. Traditionally he has fared well at the superspeedways.
Don’t forget about Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon (+3500), the 2018 winner of this race. In 15 career starts at DIS he leads all active drivers (at least two starts) with a 15.1 AFP with seven Top 10 finishes in 13 starts.
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Conquer the NFL Conference Championships with this 2-bet parlay.
The NFL’s Conference Championship weekend is the smallest slate of the season but the most pressure-packed because the winners are going to Super Bowl LIV. Since our opportunities to get loot betting on NFL football is dwindling, let’s try to maximize our return on investment with a winning two-bet parlay on this weekend’s action.
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Titans +7.5 (-115) vs. Chiefs
(Photo credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports)
No way you can take the Chiefs at -7.5 against a Titans team that beat them 35-32 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 10 and who’s best player—RB Derrick Henry—tramples them. In three career games against the Chiefs, Henry has 402 rushing yards with five touchdowns on a staggering 7.3 yards per carry. The Titans are 3-0 in those games, including a 22-21 win in the 2018 Wild Card Round. While QB Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been asked to do a lot in the Titans’ first two playoff games, he did lead the NFL in QB rating and yards per attempt, and was third in completion percentage in the regular season.
On the other side, Chiefs’ all-world QB Patrick Mahomes activated legend mode in their 51-31 beatdown of the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. After falling behind 24-0, Mahomes lit up the Texans with four passing touchdowns in the second quarter and finished with five passing touchdowns and 374 total yards. The Chiefs just have too many ways they can win, plus a long-overdue return to the Super Bowl for Reid, to predict a Titans upset.
But, the Titans already had their way with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots and No.1 seed Baltimore Ravens in these playoffs. While Mahomes’ magic will advance the Chiefs to the Super Bowl, Tennessee has too much going for it in this game to not BET TITANS +7.5 (-121).
NFL odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
49ers -7.5 (-110) vs. Packers
(Photo credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)
The 49ers dismantled the Minnesota Vikings, 27-10, and the Packers held on to beat the Seattle Seahawks 28-23 in the Divisional Round; however, it’s tough envisioning a different result in this game than the 37-8 stomping the 49ers put on the Packers in Week 12 at Levi’s Stadium. Both teams were among the NFL’s top teams against the spread this season—the Packers had an 11-6 ATS record and the 49ers were 10-6-1—but San Francisco has clear statistical advantages.
The Packers’ 23rd-ranked rush defense could be in serious trouble against a 49ers team ranked second in rushing yards. Also, the 49ers should be able to keep the secondary in coverage and get pressure on the quarterback in obvious passing situations. San Francisco has the fourth-lowest blitz percentage but the second-highest percentage of quarterback pressures, which will make it insanely difficult for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to connect with a thin wide receiver corps outside of Davante Adams.
If the 49ers can dominate both sides of the ball, the Packers will need Rodgers’ wizardry to pull off the road upset. I don’t see it because Rodgers has looked like a mere mortal this season. TAKE 49ERS -7.5 (-110).
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Previewing the NCAA Championship Game with the Clemson Tigers and LSU Tigers, sports betting odds and lines, with matchup analysis, picks and tips.
The Clemson Tigers are in the CFP brackets for a fifth straight year. On Monday night at the Superdome, HC Dabo Swinney and company will take on LSU in the National Championship Game, marking Clemson’s fourth final in five years. A win on Monday would be back-to-back titles and a third championship trophy in four years. If you are thinking about betting on the Clemson Tigers to do just that, here are a few reasons backing your decision.
1. Clemson’s Defense
Some pundits have decried the old “defense wins championships” as being outdated in modern, spread, RPO college football. That statement isn’t truly outdated, but an updated version would be “defense, along with offense, wins championships.” And that seems like common sense, if not exactly some Rosetta Stone of pigskin knowledge.
Good defenses… in fact, great defenses have been quite effective over the first five years of championship bracket ball. By one reliable analytic measure, three of five titles have been won be teams rated either first or second in defense. Only in 2014, when Ohio State beat Oregon, was the winning defense not a top-10 unit. And that year sided with defense being more important: OSU’s 14th-ranked defense beat Oregon’s top-ranked offense. The Ducks’ defense? No. 38.
The teams winning titles have been better on defense than they are on offense (like Clemson this year). The 2015 Alabama Crimson Tide ranked No. 1 on defense … and No. 24 on offense. Scores of games may be higher, but there can still be plenty of tremendous and crucial defensive plays turned in 38-35 game. On defense, the Clemson Tigers are former elite recruits who have received elite college coaching. They are especially proficient in situational defense, on third downs and in the red zone. They are better at such than any team LSU has faced this season.
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2. Clemson’s Game Control
Other than the win over Ohio State, Clemson can’t claim statistical game comps to LSU’s victories over Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Georgia. But then, none of those teams hold a candle to the 2019 Buckeyes, which is a team that may have won the lion’s share of the brackets if they could be played 100 times on a loop. Clemson’s “poor-man’s comps” – routs of North Carolina, Florida State, Wake Forest and Virginia (all top 60s) – were just that commanding in the area of game control.
That ability to play at their pace, control the exchange of field position, get multi-score leads and boat-race opponents stems from RB Travis Etienne. His ability to move first-down markers and find pay dirt (8.0 yards per carry, 18 touchdowns), and the ability of DC Brent Venables and his troops to force three-and-outs at the front of drives or field-goal attempts at the end of them.
3. Five-and-a-Half Points
Clemson doesn’t have to win outright for you to win your point-spread bet! The Clemson Tigers are 12-2 against the spread over their last 14 neutral-site games and 8-2 over their last 10 games as an underdog. Odds last updated at 6:00 p.m. EST.
And that last note includes the 2019 title game when Clemson beat Alabama 44-16. All hail Charles K. McNeil, inventor of the point spread.
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Previewing Saturday’s Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets matchup, with NBA betting odds, picks and best bets.
The Minnesota Timberwolves (15-22) head to Space City to play the Houston Rockets (25-12) at Toyota Center at 5 p.m. ET. We analyze Timberwolves-Rockets odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
It’s too tough to justify a moneyline wager on the Timberwolves (+450). They have an implied win probability of just 18%. Also, Rockets Gs James Harden and Russell Westbrook have owned the Timberwolves in their careers with a combined record of 57-17 against Minnesota. As enticing as the Timberwolves’ odds are, I recommend PASSING on the moneyline because the Timberwolves may be without their best player in Towns and have won just three of their last 10 games against the Rockets.
The TIMBERWOLVES (+11.5, -178) are worth backing on the spread, where they’ll need to stay within 11 points in a loss or win outright. Minnesota has covered the spread in five of the last six games overall and it is 4-2 straight up. The Timberwolves also perform better on the road—they are 9-11 on the road (compared to 6-11 at home) and 11-8-1 ATS in away games.
Houston has won three out of four games, while going just 2-2 ATS. In addition, the Rockets play down to weaker competition,they are 2-7 ATS when favored by double digits and 8-12 ATS against teams below .500. It’s very possible the Rockets grab a commanding lead, take their foot off the pedal and the Timberwolves make a late run for a backdoor cover.
Both teams are good to great offensively, and bad to terrible defensively, leaning me toward Over 228.5 (-129). The Timberwolves rank 24th in opponent points per game and 11th in PPG for, while the Rockets are second in PPG and 23rd in opponent PPG.
Ultimately, I’m PASSING on the 228.5 total because Rockets actually defend well from 3-point land and the Timberwolves shoot poorly from distance. Houston ranks 13th in opponent 3-point percentage and the Timberwolves are 29th in 3-point%. Also, bookmakers tend to overprice game totals for the Rockets. Despite their potent offense, they’re just 16-21 against the Over/Under for the season.
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Previewing Saturday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks matchup, with NBA betting odds, picks and best bets.
The Philadelphia 76ers (25-14) visit the Dallas Mavericks (23-15) Saturday at American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the 76ers-Mavericks sports betting odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Both teams have been inconsistent recently but the Mavericks (-128) have really been struggling. The 76ERS (+105) are coming off an impressive 109-98 win over the Boston Celtics and the Mavericks have lost three of their last four games, including a 129-114 whooping administered by the Los Angeles Lakers Friday.
The edge in this matchup goes to the 76ers who are 8-3 straight up when having a rest advantage over their opponent. The absence of all-star big man Embiid doesn’t have to be a bad thing for the short term. Look for more spacing in the 76ers offense and freedom for Ben Simmons to create offense for his teammates. Also, the 76ers’ 16th-ranked offense in points per game should have an easier time against a Mavericks defense ranked 15th in PPG allowed but missing their defensive anchor in Porzingis.
The ATS advantage goes to the 76ERS (+2.5, -125) in this game because they are 4-2-1 ATS in games they are getting 1-2.5 points, whereas the Mavericks are 1-3 ATS when favored by the same amount. Since 2016, the 76ers have the second-best against the spread record versus non-conference opponents at 59-41-4. Also, the Mavericks underperform ATS at home (7-13-1), and they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
I am not in love with the value but LEAN 76ERS +2.5 (-125) for a little bit of insurance.
Take the OVER 222.5 (+105). The Mavericks have the second most Overs in the NBA (24-14 Over/Under record) and a 13-8 Over/Under record in Dallas. They also have a very potent offense—Dallas ranks third in points per game and first in offensive rating—but as discussed earlier is missing the heart of its interior defense and gives up the most fast-break points in the NBA. Furthermore, four of the last five Mavericks games went Over the total and the Over has cashed in the last four 76ers-Mavericks game.
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Previewing Saturday’s New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals sports betting odds and lines, with NHL matchup analysis, picks and tips.
The New Jersey Devils (15-21-7) pay a visit to the Washington Capitals (30-10-5) at Capital One Arena in a Metropolitan Division last-versus-first contest on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze the Devils-Capitals odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips around this matchup.
Devils at Capitals: Projected starting goalies
Mackenzie Blackwood vs. Braden Holtby
Blackwood owns a 2.97 GAA and .905 SV. He has been busy, starting 34 of the Devils’ 43 games this season. Blackwood is coming off one of his shakiest starts of those 34: he allowed 5G on 25 SOG against the Rangers Thursday. He had a similar game – stopping just 21 of 26 – against these Capitals Dec. 20.
Holtby has struggled of late and enters Saturday’s home start with a 2.99 GAA and .901 SV. Since Dec. 23, Holtby is 1-4 with an anemic .836 SV. The 30-year-old veteran was sharp in November (2.24 GAA, .928 SV) but has otherwise been off his game in 2019-20.
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Devils at Capitals: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Saturday at 9 a.m. ET.
Penalties don’t figure to be an equalizer for the last-place Devils in visiting first-place Washington. The Caps rank third in the league with an 83.7% PK; New Jersey’s 14.8% mark on the PP ranks 30th. Recent puck-possession stats and some season analytics point to the Capitals being overextended with their scoring (3.6 GPG). New Jersey defense and goaltending is on the other side of the coin. That would indicate the Devils as a play, but I have found better ROIs when not facing elite teams or playing bottom-feeders. WILL LAY OFF THE NEW JERSEY +230 action on the moneyline. (The line has moved quite a bit toward Washington here; those making a play on Jersey would be best suited riding that wave as far as it’ll take you.)
The Devils are 9-12 against the puck line on the road. Washington is the superior team but one tied for the league lead with 15 one-goal victories. WILL PASS ON THE PUCK LINE (WAS -1.5 -106).
The UNDER 6.5 -139 is a likable play. Washington’s scoring is down a couple clicks since mid-December. Both starting net-minders have some regression upside.
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