The NFL’s Conference Championship weekend is the smallest slate of the season but the most pressure-packed because the winners are going to Super Bowl LIV. Since our opportunities to get loot betting on NFL football is dwindling, let’s try to maximize our return on investment with a winning two-bet parlay on this weekend’s action.
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Titans +7.5 (-115) vs. Chiefs
No way you can take the Chiefs at -7.5 against a Titans team that beat them 35-32 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 10 and who’s best player—RB Derrick Henry—tramples them. In three career games against the Chiefs, Henry has 402 rushing yards with five touchdowns on a staggering 7.3 yards per carry. The Titans are 3-0 in those games, including a 22-21 win in the 2018 Wild Card Round. While QB Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been asked to do a lot in the Titans’ first two playoff games, he did lead the NFL in QB rating and yards per attempt, and was third in completion percentage in the regular season.
On the other side, Chiefs’ all-world QB Patrick Mahomes activated legend mode in their 51-31 beatdown of the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. After falling behind 24-0, Mahomes lit up the Texans with four passing touchdowns in the second quarter and finished with five passing touchdowns and 374 total yards. The Chiefs just have too many ways they can win, plus a long-overdue return to the Super Bowl for Reid, to predict a Titans upset.
But, the Titans already had their way with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots and No.1 seed Baltimore Ravens in these playoffs. While Mahomes’ magic will advance the Chiefs to the Super Bowl, Tennessee has too much going for it in this game to not BET TITANS +7.5 (-121).
NFL odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
49ers -7.5 (-110) vs. Packers
The 49ers dismantled the Minnesota Vikings, 27-10, and the Packers held on to beat the Seattle Seahawks 28-23 in the Divisional Round; however, it’s tough envisioning a different result in this game than the 37-8 stomping the 49ers put on the Packers in Week 12 at Levi’s Stadium. Both teams were among the NFL’s top teams against the spread this season—the Packers had an 11-6 ATS record and the 49ers were 10-6-1—but San Francisco has clear statistical advantages.
The Packers’ 23rd-ranked rush defense could be in serious trouble against a 49ers team ranked second in rushing yards. Also, the 49ers should be able to keep the secondary in coverage and get pressure on the quarterback in obvious passing situations. San Francisco has the fourth-lowest blitz percentage but the second-highest percentage of quarterback pressures, which will make it insanely difficult for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to connect with a thin wide receiver corps outside of Davante Adams.
If the 49ers can dominate both sides of the ball, the Packers will need Rodgers’ wizardry to pull off the road upset. I don’t see it because Rodgers has looked like a mere mortal this season. TAKE 49ERS -7.5 (-110).
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