A spin around the NFL for the smartest wagers to make in Week 13.
There are a ton of games this week in which both teams are either currently in the playoffs or within a game of a playoff spot.
This week we’re focusing a lot more on the Over/Under numbers, which have some that make too much sense not to jump on.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 13
The Patriots have a tendency to keep games close, which is why the Bills are such small favorites (3.5 points at -107 Bills, -113 Patriots). Viewed by many as the clear favorite to win the AFC, right now Buffalo would be a wild-card team. This is a statement game for the Bills to get back into the Super Bowl discussion. Take the Bills and lay 3.5 points (-107).
The Vikings are winning all their games close, but this spread seems a point or two off for Minnesota (3 points at -112 Jets, -108 Vikings). Minnesota is at home going up against another backup quarterback (their fifth of the season) and will create an environment that will make it very difficult for White to replicate his numbers from last week. Take the Vikings and lay 3 points (-108).
I wouldn’t even have this game on the board with both starting quarterbacks banged up and not certain to play. The only bet I would consider at this point is the Over/Under (43.5 points at -109 Over, -111 Under). Two months ago many circled this game as a battle of the quarterbacks, but nobody expected the realistic prospect of Jordan Love vs. Nathan Peterman. Take the Under (-111).
Some may be surprised that the Steelers are the slightest of road favorites (1 point at -109 Steelers, -111 Falcons). Pittsburgh is 4-7 for the first time in a long time (Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record). However, the Steelers are 2-0 against the teams from the pathetic NFC South and haven’t played Carolina yet. Take the Steelers and lay 1 point (-109).
I have a difficult time with this one – if I was to completely avoid one game knowing who’s in and out on Sunday morning, this is it. They both win by beating people up. As such, my only bet is the Over/Under (44.5 points at -111 Over, -109 Under). The Eagles are expected to roll, but the Titans thrive when they’re written off. It may take two A.J. Brown revenge TDs to do it, but take the Over (-111).
The Lions defense is garbage, but this Over/Under is way too high for my liking (51.5 points at -107 Over, -113 Under). The Chiefs-Bengals game is only one point higher and Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow won’t be in Motown. This game will likely require seven touchdowns to surpass the point. Take the Under (-113).
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Deshaun Watson is finally back, and who does he get for his first game? His old team. The Browns are a solid favorite (7 points at -109 Browns, -111 Texans). Of their nine losses, the Texans have been beaten by seven of more points in eight of them. Combine that with the Revenge Play of the Year, if Watson is on his game, Cleveland could win by 20. Take the Browns and lay 7 points (-109).
This is the lowest Over/Under on the board (38.5 points at -110 for both). Given Denver’s offense, I’m unconvinced they head east for an early-window game against a good team and score more than 10 points. That gives you 28 points for Baltimore to score. That’s a lot of points against an unheralded Denver defense and gives you wiggle room on the lowest number you can get. Take the Under (-110).
The Commanders are clearly the hotter team, winning five of their last six and their last four road games. That helps explain why they’re road favorites (2.5 points at -111 Commanders, -109 Giants). The Giants have lost two straight, but they stacked up a lot of wins early to recover from that. If the Commanders aren’t error-free, they lose. Take the Giants plus 2.5 points (+110).
I’m not a believer in the Seahawks, but the Rams are so decimated by injury that they’re kryptonite to me. The Over/Under is low (41 points at -113 Over, -107 Under). The defending champs are in full shutdown mode with an eye on reloading for 2023. I can’t see the Rams defense allowing a ton of points and can’t see L.A.’s offense doing much. Take the Under (-107).
In my view, this is the game of the week. Miami is the new Kansas City in terms of offensive firepower, and the 49ers are stocked and locked since trading for Christian McCaffrey. Both teams can absorb a double-digit deficit and come back from. The Over/Under (46.5 points at -110 for both) should be three points higher. Take the Over (-110).
The Chiefs lost twice to the Bengals in January and this is a game they have been building toward. The line shows that Kansas City is the better team and is a road favorite (2 points at -112 Chiefs, -108 Bengals). That line is there for a reason. The Bengals won’t blow out the Chiefs. The Chiefs could blow the doors off the Bengals – and all you have to give is two points. Take the Chiefs and lay 2 points (-112).
I’m always hesitant to take the Chargers, because they’re the most overrated team in the NFL. They have elite talent on both sides of the ball and nothing to show for it. They’re a modest road favorite (1.5 points at -109 Chargers, -111 Raiders). Las Vegas has won two in a row, but the Raiders lost seven of their previous nine, including vs. the Chargers. One loss ain’t enough, Jack, you better make it two. Take the Chargers and lay 1.5 points (-109).
The Cowboys defense is better than Pittsburgh’s and the Colts couldn’t beat the Steelers at home in primetime. The Cowboys are double-digit favorites and I’m gun-shy on that. The Over/Under is low (43.5 points at -111 Over, -113 Under). I don’t believe the Colts will muster enough offense to keep this close, and Dallas can run for “death-by-paper-cut,” 12-play drives. Take the Under (-113).
A Monday night game expected to be a battle of two playoff teams is now a battle of teams trying to get up to .500 (Tampa Bay) and trying to get within a half-game of the lead with a win (New Orleans). The Buccaneers are decent road favorites (4 points at -111 Buccaneers, -109 Saints). Six of the eight Saints losses have been by double this number or more – including a 10-point loss to the Bucs in Week 2. Take the Buccaneers and lay 4 points (-111).
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