Sponsor – Tipico – NFL Picks – Page 2

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 12

We’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars.

This week we’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars in the game this season and taking a side prop bet on the game’s best kicker, throwing in a curveball that will likely have a winner or loser decided in the first quarter.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 26 at 6:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Tommy Boy

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has been posting huge numbers, which have made his Over/Under totals go off the chain. Against the Colts this week, his O/U for passing yards is gigantic (315.5 passing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Brady routinely hit more than 300 yards while with the New England Patriots, but he has hit this number just once in his last five games. So many things can happen to keep his yardage number under, ranging from getting a big lead and laying on the ball, the Indianapolis Colts defense stepping up or Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushing 20-25 times to reduce the time the Bucs offense is on the field. Any one of those things will make topping the point difficult. Take the Under (-114).

Steeler’s Wheel

After a 1-3 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers saved their season by turning the offense over to rookie RB Najee Harris. Over the next five games, Harris never had less than 22 carries. The Steelers went 4-0-1 in those games. In the five games he has 16 or fewer carries, Pittsburgh is 1-4. There has been no middle ground. In a must-win game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Over/Under for Harris is modest (66.5 yards rushing yards at -114 for both). If he hits the 20-carry standard he has posted in five of the last six games, it will be almost impossible for him not to surpass that number. Take the Over (-114).

Movin’ On Up

Against likely playoff teams over the last two weeks, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has posted more than 300 receiving yards, which is why his Over/Under against the San Francisco 49ers (84.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems a little low. He has become a big-play machine, and Jefferson is thrown a ton of deep balls that he turns into 80/20 balls instead of 50/50. It’s a big number but one that might require an injury to prevent him from hitting. Take the Over (-114).

The Adams Family

It’s difficult to ever go against Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams under any circumstances, much less when he is at home. However, while they haven’t done it as often this season as they have in previous years, the Los Angeles Rams may have CB Jalen Ramsey chase Adams wherever he goes on the field. The talent level at receiver drops significantly beyond Adams, so this could be a one-on-one matchup of two All-Pros that lasts all 60 minutes. His Over/Under is pretty high (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). But, Aaron Rodgers is no idiot. If Ramsey puts the clamps down on Adams, Rodgers will still take his shots, but likely not as many as he would against a lesser corner. Take the Under (-114).

Just for Kicks

There are plenty of prop bets that can be made on any game. We tend to focus on yardage, but there are also bets for who will or won’t score a touchdown, who will score first, etc. One that caught my eye is in the Baltimore-Cleveland game – who will score the first field goal at -112 for both teams. Here is where I see the game within the game. The Cleveland Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games, which means a lot of possessions coming up empty. The Baltimore Ravens have the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker, and he is capable of hitting kicks from 60 yards. The odds are quietly stacked in his favor, because if he gets his chance, he rarely misses. Take the Ravens to kick the first field goal (-112).

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 11

Prop bets are a fine way to blend fantasy skills and gambling.

As the playoff push begins, our focus this week is on players from teams that are in the fight to keep their playoff hopes alive or cement their playoff positioning. These five we feel give you a good chance of heading to the pay window early and often.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 19 at 6:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Hands off Jimmy! Don’t Touch Jimmy!

The passing yardage Over/Under for San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo seems deceivingly low (245.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). However, the Niners are who they are – a run-first team that asks Jimmy G to manage the game. In the eight games he has played, he has thrown 30 or fewer times in six of them. He simply doesn’t get the opportunity that often the sling the ball around the yard. The 49ers should be able to handle the Jacksonville Jaguars and, if they get a big lead, will take the air out of the ball. Take the Under (-114).

Don’t Know You from Adam

In his last five full games against the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen has 75 or more receiving yards in four them and 110 or more in three of those. His Over/Under for receiving yards is quite low (58.5 yards at -118 Over, -110 Under). The Packers are known for playing man coverage but are likely going to roll a safety on Justin Jefferson, which will leave Thielen one-on-one downfield. A couple of splash plays will make reaching that number a lot easier and the opportunities will be there. Take the Over (-118).

Baby You Can Drive My Carr

Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr has quietly been posting some eye-popping passing yardage numbers, which helps explain why his Over/Under this week against Cincinnati is so high (282.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). This is a combo platter bet in my view. The Raiders are run-first offense, and if that keeps working, the Raiders will run 30 times or more. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has struggled the last couple of games and need to make a statement to regain steam. The only way I see this one going Over is if Cincinnati gets a double-digit lead early and the Raiders have to throw 40 times or more. Take the Under (-114).

[lawrence-related id=462189]

Hail to the Chief

The problem teams have scouting out Kansas City is which weapon do they double – Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill? They can’t double both. It’s rare this season when both Kelce and Hill blow up, but one of them does each game. The Dallas Cowboys love to blitz their linebackers and that lends itself to quick passes to the vacated spot to Kelce. His Over/Under for receptions is high (6.5 at +100 Over, -130 Under). The clear indication here is that the thought will be that Kelce can hit seven receptions. I’m not saying he’s going to hit 100 yards, but this game could be a 34-31 haymaker exchange and Patrick Mahomes may throw 40-50 times. He if does, at least a dozen of those will come Kelce’s way, and I like his chances of catching seven or more of those. Take the Over (+100).

What Can Brown Do for You?

Tennessee Titans WR A.J. Brown has owned the Houston Texans. In four games, he has caught 27 passes and topped 110 yards in three of them – all with Derrick Henry hogging up most of the snaps in the ground game. Houston is awful and doesn’t have overly physical corners. Brown’s Over/Under for receptions is manageable (5.5 at -112 Over, -115 Under). The key to this one is target share. Brown has been targeted nine or more times in four of the last five games. He is adept at crossing routes that take advantage of his size, and, without Henry, the Titans offense is going to lean more on Brown to control the game flow. Take the Over (-112).

Betting the NFL Line: Week 9

Your comprehensive betting guide for NFL Week 9 action.

As we hit the midway point of the 2021 season, the era of parity, at least in the NFC. Everybody has two or more losses in the AFC, and the team currently with the best record (Tennessee at 6-2) lost Derrick Henry, which should knock them down several pegs. Tampa Bay is 6-2 in the NFC and has the fifth-best record in the conference behind Arizona, Green Bay and the Los Angeles Rams (all 7-1) and Dallas (6-1).

In many respects, it has made gambling easier, because the difference between the good teams and the bad teams is so pronounced. The Week 9 slate of games, there is only one game featuring two teams with records above .500 (the Tennessee Titans and Rams). On the flip side, there are three games featuring teams with records below .500 – lowlighted by the battle of 1-7 scrubs Houston and the New York Jets.

Every game has some significance – some more than others – and here is a prediction for each game that can help take you to the pay window in the midseason mine field.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Nov. 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

New York Jets (+380) at Indianapolis Colts (-540)

So, what do the Jets get after pulling off an impressive win over Cincinnati? They’re 10.5-point underdogs. I’m not overly impressed with the Colts early, who got smacked around after building a 14-0 lead early. The numbers I like here is the Over/Under (46.5 points at -110 for both the Over and Under). Both defenses can hold down the other offense enough that, barring a defensive or special teams touchdown, this should be a tough number to hit. Take the Under (-110).

Cleveland Browns (+115) at Cincinnati Bengals (-140)

Neither of these teams have been easy to figure out, but both have legitimate playoff aspirations. While I’m leaning toward the Bengals, the one thing I’m more confident in is that both offenses can make enough big plays to hit the Over/Under (46.5 points at -117 Over, -103 Under). Although each team has a solid defense, the passing game for both teams will make the difference. Take the Over (-117).

New England Patriots (-190) at Carolina Panthers (+155)

The Patriots know too much about Sam Darnold (concussion) to ignore in this, and I don’t think the Patriots are getting enough credit as the point-spread road favorites (3.5 points at -108 Patriots, -112 Jets). New England’s defense is going to get Darnold on the move, where bad things tend to happen. Take the Patriots and lay the 3.5 points. (-108).

Minnesota Vikings (+205) at Baltimore Ravens (-260)

After Minnesota squandered away its season last week against Dallas, there is little reason to have any confidence that they can get the job done against a Ravens team coming off its bye with two weeks to prepare for the Vikings. The spread has the Ravens favored heavily (6.5 points at -115 Vikings, -105 Ravens), but they have the horses to make Minnesota miserable and Lamar Jackson may run for 100 yards and two scores. Take the Ravens and lay the 6.5 points (-105).

Buffalo Bills (-1100) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+650)

Once again, the Jags are double-digit underdogs — and for good reason. However, the Over/Under is suspiciously high (48.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). While the Bills are capable of scoring 35 points, I’m not convinced the Jags can provide the 14 needed to hit the point in this one Take the Under (-115).

[lawrence-related id=461819]

Houston Texans (+230) at Miami Dolphins (-300)

Talk about a game nobody aside from friends and family want to watch, personally I wouldn’t bet anything on this game. But, if I have to, I will look at the Over/Under (45.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). It’s not because I think the offenses will light it up. I think each quarterback will throw a Pick-6 that will make hitting the point easier for both teams. Take the Over (-115).

Denver Broncos (+330) at Dallas Cowboys (-450)

The Cowboys rolled the dice by benching Dak Prescott (calf), and they still got the win. But, with the field at the top of the NFC crowded, every win is going to be critical. Dallas is a heavy favorite (9.5 points at -110 for both the Over and Under). Prescott looked healthy enough to play last Sunday. I think he’s back on the field, and Sunday will be the first of many times Denver’s defense will miss Von Miller in critical situations. Take the Cowboys and lay the 9.5 points (-110).

Las Vegas Raiders (-145) at New York Giants (+120)

You have to wonder how many more hits the Raiders can take? First Jon Gruden gets sent packing. Now, the tragedy surrounding Henry Ruggs. I’m not a huge fan of this line that has the Raiders as a mild favorite (2.5 points at -120 Raiders, +100 Giants). I’m one who drinks the Kool-Aid about West Coast teams heading east, but the Giants may not have more than a couple of healthy wide receivers, and Saquon Barkley is a question mark. Take the Raiders and lay the 2.5 points (-120).

Atlanta Falcons (+200) at New Orleans Saints (-250)

The Saints have serious question marks at quarterback, because Drew Brees isn’t coming out of retirement to bail them out. The line I think I like the best here is the peewee Over/Under (41.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). The Saints have an improved defense, but they take chances, and Matt Ryan has the savvy to cover Atlanta’s end of the deal. Take the Over (-112).

Los Angeles Chargers (-130) at Philadelphia Eagles (+105)

I’m still not 100 percent sold on the Chargers as a legitimate contender to roll through the playoffs, and losing at home to New England didn’t help that. However, the Eagles are banged up and in recent history have begun their slide to mediocrity or worse in November. Los Angeles is a small favorite (2.5 points at -108 Chargers, -112 Eagles). While I have my West Coast-heading-east concerns, this game has a late start time which eases some of those concerns. Take the Chargers and lay the 2.5 points (-108).

Green Bay Packers (+265) at Kansas City Chiefs (-350)

Given their respective teams and the Chiefs coming off a short week, I was prepared to be all over Green Bay. Then the news of Aaron Rodgers’ COVID-19 diagnosis came out, and I changed my mind completely. So did those setting the odds. Now Kansas City is a huge favorite (7.5 points). The Over/Under is still high at 48.5 (-105 Over, -115 Under), and I don’t believe Jordan Love can provide enough spark – even against a vulnerable Chiefs defense – to get his end of the job done. Take the Under (-115).

Arizona Cardinals (-112) at San Francisco 49ers (-108)

The Cardinals are the better team and have the ability to come back from down double digits. I don’t see the 49ers as being capable in their current state of running away with a big lead, and they don’t have the offensive firepower to make up a big deficit. San Francisco is the smallest of favorites (.5 points at -112 Cardinals, -108 49ers). I never understand this bet, because nobody taking the Cardinals should consider the moneyline. By taking the half-point, you win in the event of a tie. Take the Cardinals and the 0.5 points (-112).

Tennessee Titans (+280) at Los Angeles Rams (-370)

The loss of Derrick Henry turned what could have been an epic matchup into a game that the Titans will almost have to be perfect. I’m on the Rams train to advance deep into the playoffs. Although the spread is big for Los Angeles (7.5 points at -108 Titans, -112 Rams), I think they have the playmakers on both sides of the ball to get the job done in Von Miller’s possible debut (ankle injury). Take the Rams and lay the 7.5 points (-112).

Chicago Bears (+210) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-270)

The offenses for both teams have sputtered, but the shockingly low Over/Under (39.5 points at -117 Over, -103 Under) sets off alarms for me. I have a hard time ever taking an Over of more than 56 or 57 or believing an Under of less than 40. The point has been set outside that barrier, and I just can’t help myself. One special teams or defensive touchdown should almost guarantee to seal the deal. Take the Over (-117).